bluewave Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 hours ago, gravitylover said: In the latest visible shot this really is a beautiful storm. Knowing (approximately) what's going to happen over the next few days I hate appreciating it but I can't help it. Someone on the north side of the Chesapeake area-MD/DEL/NJ coast is getting a heckuva surf day today. Decent surfing conditions today along the South Shore. A 5-6 foot hurricane swell with light winds. https://nysea.com/live-cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 20 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Wow almost 34 ft near Southern Queens, I wonder why it's less in Southern Nassau? Was this from a track modeled into Sandy Hook of a 145 mph hurricane? It would be interesting to see the same track modeled with different intensity hurricanes from 1-4. Also with the new climate regime of stalling hurricanes I wonder how much worse it would be to have a Cat 3/4 stall right along the coast, similar to what the Dec 1992 noreaster or the Ash Wednesday 1962 storm or what Harvey did or what Florence might do. I would assume the proximity to another large body of water (Jamaica Bay) would account for the extra surge in Southern Queens. For reference, this was assuming the worst-case scenario track, direction and speed in which a hypothetical hurricane would take up here. The exact factors that make up this scenario were a mid-range Cat 4 hurricane (so I assume around 145 MPH) that was racing NW at 60 MPH (very possible, aka the 1938 one) at normal high tide before making landfall in Monmouth County. I assume a stalling hurricane would enhance the surge, as long as upwelling is not a large issue and the hurricane-force wind field has a huge diameter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 hours ago, tdp146 said: Did you send the NWS your email address via this page in order to get access to run that model? https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/sloshPub/disclaim.php Yes, I submitted my personal e-mail address to them and got a username and password within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Decent surfing conditions today along the South Shore. A 5-6 foot hurricane swell with light winds. https://nysea.com/live-cam/ One of the positives of hurricane season. There has been hurricane surf (above 3’) on 16 of the last 17 9/11s. Pretty remarkably consistent for a place that doesn’t average much surf the rest of the year. I’m waiting for our local buoys to start showing the mega swell associated with the captured fetch of the last couple days. Some of the buoys down south are seeing swell periods of 16 seconds now which are very rare on the east coast. It’s those very periods and the tremendous energy and speed of those wave trains that will lead to beach washovers and flooding of beach front locations when it arrives. Surf wise today was a blast, tomorrow will be at least double the size and challenging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Frying Pan Ocean Cam Live https://youtu.be/deG4NxkouGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Discuss Sandy in here, no need to continue to rehash it in the Florence thread. Continually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Some excellent surf in Long Beach this morning with hundreds of guys out (and some girls). I’m at Jones beach right now and so far there has been very minimal wash over. Looks like area beaches take this one in stride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 If anyone is interested my self and a fellow chaser from long island (@weathergoingwild) are live in NC. www.twitch.tv/nycstormchaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Euro and EPS brings the remnants into our area next week. Euro has 1-2 inches for NYC with more to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breene Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 18 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: If anyone is interested my self and a fellow chaser from long island (@weathergoingwild) are live in NC. www.twitch.tv/nycstormchaser typo or account deleted ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 next week Florence will be effecting us...How much rain will we get?...will it make this list?... rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane... date.................amount........ Sept 1882.......10.63" Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria Sept 1938.........5.74" Sept 1934.........5.48" Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd June 2013.........4.77" Andrea Aug 1879..........4.59" Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle Oct 1877...........4.07" Aug 1893..........3.94" Sept 1904.........3.85" Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria July 1960...........3.56" Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 ^^ It's amazing how much more rain I got here from Floyd than the city got, nearly 10" more! I don't remember the total from Irene but I think it was also considerably more than the 7" on that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 3 hours ago, uncle W said: next week Florence will be effecting us...How much rain will we get?...will it make this list?... rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane... date.................amount........ Sept 1882.......10.63" Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria Sept 1938.........5.74" Sept 1934.........5.48" Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd June 2013.........4.77" Andrea Aug 1879..........4.59" Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle Oct 1877...........4.07" Aug 1893..........3.94" Sept 1904.........3.85" Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria July 1960...........3.56" Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna missing 3.54" from hanna in 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 14 minutes ago, forkyfork said: missing 3.54" from hanna in 2008 #neverforget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 48 minutes ago, forkyfork said: missing 3.54" from hanna in 2008 thanks...it's probably not the only one...But I try... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 29 minutes ago, uncle W said: thanks...it's probably not the only one...But I try... Much mucm more than try. Thank you as always...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 7 hours ago, gravitylover said: ^^ It's amazing how much more rain I got here from Floyd than the city got, nearly 10" more! I don't remember the total from Irene but I think it was also considerably more than the 7" on that list. Ha, I was just thinking the same thing. I had just moved into my house a few months before. Massive flooding here. There is a brook that runs through the property. The runoff from Floyd completly rearranged it, ripping rocks and earth from an old dam and one bank and depositing it downstream. It was crazy town. Have t seen it like that since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 42 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Mike Siedel was on the board walk down the block from me when I lived in Long Beach before Irene. I went over to talk to him (not something I ever do) and he was a total prick. So I can’t say I feel sorry for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 The area is finally in NHC cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The area is finally in NHC cone The NHC seems to have settled on the ECMWF’s track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 6 hours ago, Hitman said: Ha, I was just thinking the same thing. I had just moved into my house a few months before. Massive flooding here. There is a brook that runs through the property. The runoff from Floyd completly rearranged it, ripping rocks and earth from an old dam and one bank and depositing it downstream. It was crazy town. Have t seen it like that since. Chances are you won't see anything like that again for a long, long time. That was something truly amazing. The rain gauge in Fahnestock St Park recorded over 15" of rain that afternoon and most of the area along the Taconics got 14 or more. I don't remember the numbers down in Poughkeepsie but I want to say it was over 12" especially in the hills just east of town. The only other time I've seen rain anywhere near that heavy was in Cordova AK in July of 1989 when we got 11" in just a few hours in town and near 14" at the top of the mountains right above town. If I never see rainfall rates like these two again it will be ok, the devastation that much water in hilly terrain creates is overwhelming and you're absolutely powerless to do anything other than watch. Seeing 60 foot tall trees getting tossed and splintered like matchsticks and watching cars get picked up and washed into ravines is scary stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 5 hours ago, gravitylover said: Chances are you won't see anything like that again for a long, long time. That was something truly amazing. The rain gauge in Fahnestock St Park recorded over 15" of rain that afternoon and most of the area along the Taconics got 14 or more. I don't remember the numbers down in Poughkeepsie but I want to say it was over 12" especially in the hills just east of town. The only other time I've seen rain anywhere near that heavy was in Cordova AK in July of 1989 when we got 11" in just a few hours in town and near 14" at the top of the mountains right above town. If I never see rainfall rates like these two again it will be ok, the devastation that much water in hilly terrain creates is overwhelming and you're absolutely powerless to do anything other than watch. Seeing 60 foot tall trees getting tossed and splintered like matchsticks and watching cars get picked up and washed into ravines is scary stuff Actually, I was up in vt for Irene. That was biblical. We were trapped in the mrv for 3 days before there was any road access into or out of the valley. The destruction along the mad river was incredible. We were staying at about 2000’ and so had no clue of the devastation until we ventured out the following morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hitman said: Actually, I was up in vt for Irene. That was biblical. We were trapped in the mrv for 3 days before there was any road access into or out of the valley. The destruction along the mad river was incredible. We were staying at about 2000’ and so had no clue of the devastation until we ventured out the following morning. You can still see the scars from that event all over the place. The most obvious is going up Rt 4 east out of Rutland but there are some spots where there are trees stacked like cordwood across creeks but they're 15 feet above the regular water level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 Hilarious how TWC continues to get lambasted after yesterday's fiasco...On their Facebook page, every serious story they post is accompanied by all funny reader comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 WOW at some of the rain totals. I've seen a few over 30" already and it's still pouring and will be for another 10-12 hours. Woof... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 2 hours ago, doncat said: Hilarious how TWC continues to get lambasted after yesterday's fiasco...On their Facebook page, every serious story they post is accompanied by all funny reader comments. TWC has a Facebook page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 I think their the only weather channel to win an Emmy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 I see it appears that Anderson Cooper got busted with bogus reporting too though I haven’t researched to see what the story is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I see it appears that Anderson Cooper got busted with bogus reporting too though I haven’t researched to see what the story is. It was from Ike in 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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