Hurricane Florence Catch all Thread

[Rtd208]

 

[Rtd208]

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

One thing is for sure. This is going to be a coast rearranger for someone.

Even up here we are making some peeps at Jones beach getting ready for washovers. The beach here is extremely flat and long period swells will cause the beach to flood up and under the boardwalk. It’s not every day (or ever) we have cat 4 on that trajectory. 

[MJO812]

I agree about a mid Atlantic strike but don't let your guard over here just yet

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I agree about a mid Atlantic strike but don't let your guard over here just yet

88,,,I caught some flack from a few guys earlier but I totally agree that this is not written in stone there is time for solutions to change. Many people think Florence continues West I still think ( not to keep repeating myself ) that she turns North just a matter of when

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

One thing is for sure. This is going to be a coast rearranger for someone.

Even up here we are making some peeps at Jones beach getting ready for washovers. The beach here is extremely flat and long period swells will cause the beach to flood up and under the boardwalk. It’s not every day (or ever) we have cat 4 on that trajectory. 

Going to be beautiful up here under the 600dm ridge, should be good surfing

[Seth.P]

12 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88,,,I caught some flack from a few guys earlier but I totally agree that this is not written in stone there is time for solutions to change. Many people think Florence continues West I still think ( not to keep repeating myself ) that she turns North just a matter of when

Anything could change with this much time out. It's just unlikely as things stand.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

52 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Going to be beautiful up here under the 600dm ridge, should be good surfing

Local winds aren’t looking that great. You really winds to be offshore for ideal conditions. Even this far north we should have an onshore flow. But big big waves for sure. The biggest (other then During Irene or sandy) were with Bill in 09. We had signifant damage to the beach with that event, every inch of snow fence and every sign we’re ripped out and in big piles against the boardwalk. Pretty remarkable for a storm that was pretty far out. Shows what a major cane can do when it’s headed twords you. Captured fetch. 

[jm1220]

44 minutes ago, Seth.P said:

Anything could change with this much time out. It's just unlikely as things stand.

Still time for the ridge to reorient itself and Florence to make an earlier north turn and miss the mainland. The Euro turned the storm a little sooner into NC instead of a Hugo track. But we’d want a strong trend east soon to discount serious impacts somewhere in the SE or Mid Atlantic. 

[Voyager]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Still time for the ridge to reorient itself and Florence to make an earlier north turn and miss the mainland. The Euro turned the storm a little sooner into NC instead of a Hugo track. But we’d want a strong trend east soon to discount serious impacts somewhere in the SE or Mid Atlantic. 

I'm looking for the ridge to align itself so Florence doesn't stall, rides the Chesapeake, and heads straight into eastern PA before exiting New England...

[jm1220]

Looking at the GFS trending east from last run-it’s the GFS, but minor changes to the ridge can mean a significant change to track at day 5-6. Still plenty of time for that to allow a recurve before landfall due to a further east ridge orientation. 

Not that climo dictates outcome by any means, but we will really need a stout and flat ridge to allow a landfall from the current position. It could certainly happen but it’s practically unheard of for a reason. It’s so easy for a trough or ridge weakness to pick it up at some point before making it to mainland from here. 

[sb7916]

I'm hoping that if it does make landfall on the Carolinas that it somehow continues to track westward towards the central states and then straight up into Canada and doesn't make the northward curve back towards NYC so NYC can also escape getting hit with the remnants. We always seem to get hit with the remnants which in turn still gives us cloudy dreary miserable weather which in that case if this is always gonna happen with us east coast landfall hurricanes then we might as well have it make a direct hit on our area since it will still give us cloudy rainy miserable weather either way. I live in the NYC area and am getting so tired of the unsettled stretch with weekends of late in particular which seems to be the target time frame yet again for us if that damn hurricanes remnants bothers us. I'm so sick of it already and want nicer weekends already

[Rtd208]

It looks like Larry Cosgrove is buying into a more GFS scenario where Florence sits just off NC then heads out to sea thereafter. Obviously the verdict is still out on the eventual track. 

[gravitylover]

7 hours ago, sb7916 said:

I'm hoping that if it does make landfall on the Carolinas that it somehow continues to track westward towards the central states and then straight up into Canada and doesn't make the northward curve back towards NYC so NYC can also escape getting hit with the remnants. We always seem to get hit with the remnants which in turn still gives us cloudy dreary miserable weather which in that case if this is always gonna happen with us east coast landfall hurricanes then we might as well have it make a direct hit on our area since it will still give us cloudy rainy miserable weather either way. I live in the NYC area and am getting so tired of the unsettled stretch with weekends of late in particular which seems to be the target time frame yet again for us if that damn hurricanes remnants bothers us. I'm so sick of it already and want nicer weekends already

Dude I think you need to live in San Diego.

[NJwx85]

7 hours ago, sb7916 said:

I'm hoping that if it does make landfall on the Carolinas that it somehow continues to track westward towards the central states and then straight up into Canada and doesn't make the northward curve back towards NYC so NYC can also escape getting hit with the remnants. We always seem to get hit with the remnants which in turn still gives us cloudy dreary miserable weather which in that case if this is always gonna happen with us east coast landfall hurricanes then we might as well have it make a direct hit on our area since it will still give us cloudy rainy miserable weather either way. I live in the NYC area and am getting so tired of the unsettled stretch with weekends of late in particular which seems to be the target time frame yet again for us if that damn hurricanes remnants bothers us. I'm so sick of it already and want nicer weekends already

It’s going to be a long winter

[Rtd208]

[CIK62]

Next Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday for the worst effects here.    Then a nice day and another inch of frontal rain on Thursday, according to the GFS.      Up to 4" here and much more southern NJ.      GFS runs fairly consistent. 

Meanwhile GFS keeps showing 15C 850mb T's, indicating the ridge is going to hold up.    This is about 4C AN, during the first half of Sept.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88,,,I caught some flack from a few guys earlier but I totally agree that this is not written in stone there is time for solutions to change. Many people think Florence continues West I still think ( not to keep repeating myself ) that she turns North just a matter of when

They always do eventually, but there may not be much left of it at that point.  Saturday's my birthday so I'm hoping not to have a rain out lol.

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Go through “history” and find another storm that did anything remotely close to sandy. While history has its place consensus is so strong that it has to be discounted. 

I think there was a storm in the early 1900s that took a track very similar to Sandy and went right into the Atlantic City area- it might have been that 1903 one that Don mentioned.

I dont think Sandy was a worst case scenario for us though, I mean it was about 80% of the way there and the timing with the high tides was definitely worst case for the south shore, but if it had tracked about 50 miles further north before curving into the coast that would have been worst case.

 

A stronger version of the 1893 hurricane would have been a worse storm for us specifically.  I also wonder about that Norfolk and Long Island hurricane, that one was unusually strong for a long range coastal hugger, must have been an amazing storm.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

When one uses historical data, one can't assume that a single look at the data for a storm provides a complete picture. First, the guidance suggested that Florence would track westward and perhaps even a little south of west. One could examine the historical data at its expected position e.g., 24 hours in advance, for additional context (which would have implied a possible threat). None of those tweeting about the historical tracks mentioned this. Why? One can't look only superficially. Second, one also has to regularly examine the data, as the storm progresses, because the synoptic pattern is not static or constrained by what happened in the past. It is dynamic.

Historical data should not be used as a substitute for the synoptic pattern or guidance. It can complement such information.

Based on Florence's 11 am AST position, (24.5N 54.3W) and an examination of all tropical storms or hurricanes that passed within 200 nautical miles of that position, one finds 95 tropical cyclones. Six of those tropical cyclones went on to make U.S. landfall.

1880 Hurricane #4: SE Florida, Category 2

1893 Hurricane #6, Georgia, Category 3

1903 Hurricane #4, New Jersey, Category 1

1933 Hurricane #6, North Carolina, Category 1

1961 Esther, Massachusetts, Tropical Storm

2003 Isabel, North Carolina, Category 2

So, this data essentially confirms what the guidance has been implying: the threat of a possible U.S. landfall is increasing.

If one examines the synoptic pattern using the EPS, most ensemble members have suggested possible landfall from Florida to North Carolina. The operational ECMWF falls within that large cluster. The historical data had 4/6 (67%) of the landfalling storms make landfall in that area.

Given the synoptic pattern, the probability of landfall is far higher than the 6% figure implied by the historic tracks. That probability also increases based on the NHC's forecast position 24 hours from now.

Such landfall is still not assured, as shown on the 12z GFS, but it is probably at least somewhat more likely than no landfall at this point in time. The Southeast appears to have the highest risk of seeing such landfall based on all of the above information.

Finally, in this thread a reference to Sandy was made. Although Sandy's track was essentially unprecedented for a tropical cyclone, winter storms have made such a turn under the influence of powerful blocking (as had been present in late October 2012).

Don, was that 1903 NJ Hurricane the one that took a track similar to Sandy and curved into the coast near Atlantic City?  I remember reading about a storm that took such a track in the early 1900s in the New Jersey Hurricane Book.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Please consider Zoloft.

Instead of a drug with serious side effects he should consider a UV lamp lol- seems like SAD has set in early.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I really think the summer rains were an indicator for which region Flo impacts the most rain wise.

It'll be funny if this is how the pattern for the winter sets up too a la 2009-10 thanks to the El Nino.  Those were the same areas that got jackpotted that winter.

[donsutherland1]

Florence has regained hurricane status.

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, was that 1903 NJ Hurricane the one that took a track similar to Sandy and curved into the coast near Atlantic City?  I remember reading about a storm that took such a track in the early 1900s in the New Jersey Hurricane Book.

Yes. That’s the one that made landfall Near Atlantic City.

[uncle W]

nothing is written in stone yet but it does look like a Sandy/Ages combination headed for Pennsylvania...a recurve can happen at the last minute...TWT...

back in 1958 south Carolina dodged a bullet with this storm...

[qg_omega]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think there was a storm in the early 1900s that took a track very similar to Sandy and went right into the Atlantic City area- it might have been that 1903 one that Don mentioned.

I dont think Sandy was a worst case scenario for us though, I mean it was about 80% of the way there and the timing with the high tides was definitely worst case for the south shore, but if it had tracked about 50 miles further north before curving into the coast that would have been worst case.

 

A stronger version of the 1893 hurricane would have been a worse storm for us specifically.  I also wonder about that Norfolk and Long Island hurricane, that one was unusually strong for a long range coastal hugger, must have been an amazing storm.

 

 

 

Sandy was worst case from Central NJ shore to the Nassau/Suffolk border, any further north would have pushed that zone to the Northeast

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Sandy was worst case from Central NJ shore to the Nassau/Suffolk border, any further north would have pushed that zone to the Northeast

Definitely not a worst case scenario. That would be a purely tropical cyclone with intact core moving rapidly NW out of the Gulf Stream with a landfall in Monmouth County. That would put NYC in the NE eyewall.  I think the upper end of what’s possible is about 130mph. A 20’ surge into Ny harbor and major wind damage.  Plus be the worlds first 1 trillion dollar disaster. 

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Definitely not a worst case scenario. That would be a purely tropical cyclone with intact core moving rapidly NW out of the Gulf Stream with a landfall in Monmouth County. That would put NYC in the NE eyewall.  I think the upper end of what’s possible is about 130mph. A 20’ surge into Ny harbor and major wind damage.  Plus be the worlds first 1 trillion dollar disaster. 

Nope, completely disagree.  Our biggest storms are hybrid, pure tropical is garbage up here.  Sandy storm surge was highest ever.  1938 was not pure tropical, pure tropical would not be moving 40+, only can get captured and sling for that to happen, that's Sandy and it's position was worst case for us. /End

[LIWeatherGuy29]

1821 Norfolk/Long Island hurricane was probably close to the 1938 hurricane in strength when it hit NYC. It caused a lot of damage there, read the newspapers for that storm. It was estimated to have been a category 3 over NYC and Category 4 over Southern NJ. That would be the worst case scenario for Long Island/NYC and worse than Sandy.

[BxEngine]

The irony lol