Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    19,021
    Total Members
    49,013
    Most Online
    loganboehmewx
    Newest Member
    loganboehmewx
    Joined

Hurricane Florence Catch all Thread

Brian5671

By Brian5671,
in New York City Metro

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 308
  • Created
  • Last Reply
NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

We'll get a few days of some big waves regardless of the exact track of Florence, but I think it's in poor taste and border line irresponsible to compare this system to Sandy right now.

As has been discussed in noisome, Sandy was undergoing rapid extratropical transition on approach. Because of the transition, Sandy wasn't as susceptible to decreasing sea surface temperatures and shear as it would have been if the system had remained purely warm core. The transition also caused the wind field to expand dramatically. None of this appears to be on the table with Florence, therefore the system should be steadily weakening on closest approach.

That's not to say that we cannot get whacked by one hell of a storm. I just believe that the Sandy comparisons are over the top. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted

If you want a comparison to a storm coming from the east, this reminds me of Felix in 1995.  That season we had a lot of storms recurve around 70W but Felix caused a lot of mayhem for forecasters.  It was a Cat 4 135 mph hurricane at one point but weakened as it got closer to the NC shoreline from the east and the closest it got was around 200 miles from Cape Hatteras.  Some of the models had it coming up the coast to around Montauk as a strong TS or weak hurricane but that never happened, it stalled out under the really strong WAR of August 1995 (which also gave us a rainless month until the final day and widespread wildfires throughout the area), did a little loop off Cape Hatteras and went back east and all it did for our region was cause a lot of riptides and very high surf.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We'll get a few days of some big waves regardless of the exact track of Florence, but I think it's in poor taste and border line irresponsible to compare this system to Sandy right now.

As has been discussed in noisome, Sandy was undergoing rapid extratropical transition on approach. Because of the transition, Sandy wasn't as susceptible to decreasing sea surface temperatures and shear as it would have been if the system had remained purely warm core. The transition also caused the wind field to expand dramatically. None of this appears to be on the table with Florence, therefore the system should be steadily weakening on closest approach.

That's not to say that we cannot get whacked by one hell of a storm. I just believe that the Sandy comparisons are over the top. 

I don’t know why anyone would compare this scenario to Sandy. Apples and oranges. 

NHC is really struggling with the intensity forecasts. I doubt Florence is much more then a cat 1 right now and on it’s way down to a trop storm. This really goes to show how much we still have to learn collectively. Smaller storms are really subject to intensity swings. Once Florence gets into that area with some good OHC if shear drops it could easily bounce back to a major. 

One thing these weakening periods do tend to do is increase the size of the storm after restrengthening resumes. That’s where you start increasing the danger for the east coast. A larger storm with a bigger wind field is much better at imparting it’s energy into the ocean through a larger fetch. So if Florence ends up being a very large storm down the road it would obviously have much greater coastal impacts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I don’t know why anyone would compare this scenario to Sandy. Apples and oranges. 

NHC is really struggling with the intensity forecasts. I doubt Florence is much more then a cat 1 right now and on it’s way down to a trop storm. This really goes to show how much we still have to learn collectively. Smaller storms are really subject to intensity swings. Once Florence gets into that area with some good OHC if shear drops it could easily bounce back to a major. 

One thing these weakening periods do tend to do is increase the size of the storm after restrengthening resumes. That’s where you start increasing the danger for the east coast. A larger storm with a bigger wind field is much better at imparting it’s energy into the ocean through a larger fetch. So if Florence ends up being a very large storm down the road it would obviously have much greater coastal impacts. 

What do you think of my Felix 1995 comparison?  Just based on the approach from the east, not the final outcome for our area of course.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What do you think of my Felix 1995 comparison?  Just based on the approach from the east, not the final outcome for our area of course.

It’s good for surf impacts as that storm closed beaches for more then a week. That’s the one thing that’s a certainty. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I don’t know why anyone would compare this scenario to Sandy. Apples and oranges. 

NHC is really struggling with the intensity forecasts. I doubt Florence is much more then a cat 1 right now and on it’s way down to a trop storm. This really goes to show how much we still have to learn collectively. Smaller storms are really subject to intensity swings. Once Florence gets into that area with some good OHC if shear drops it could easily bounce back to a major. 

One thing these weakening periods do tend to do is increase the size of the storm after restrengthening resumes. That’s where you start increasing the danger for the east coast. A larger storm with a bigger wind field is much better at imparting it’s energy into the ocean through a larger fetch. So if Florence ends up being a very large storm down the road it would obviously have much greater coastal impacts. 

I agree that Florence isn't looking her best right now, but this is probably the most hostile environment it's going to face, and things start improving as early as late tonight. Shear will be decreasing and SST will be increasing. I'm sure that once the system reaches the more favorable conditions we will see gradual improvements and beyond 60 hours conditions look nearly ideal for intensification. 

The short term weakening obviously increases the odds that Florence is going to miss the weakness in the ridge in about 96 hours, and then after that it would just come down to how close it can get to the coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Upper Level environment must be superb on the gfs, it's really slow to weaken. 

Virtually no wind shear until near the BM and even that is modest. Biggest weakening factor appears to be upwelling which would be a slow death given time of year and track near the gulf stream.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gravity Wave

Gravity Wave

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Virtually no wind shear until near the BM and even that is modest. Biggest weakening factor appears to be upwelling which would be a slow death given time of year and track near the gulf stream.

Yeah, i think people are being a little cavalier in saying it won't be more than a 1 by the time it gets up to the Delmarva (assuming no significant land interaction over NC, of course).

 

E: Another issue if it really hugs the coast and stalls is that upwelling impacts could be mitigated by the relative shallowness of the continental shelf.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...