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September Models and Pattern: The March to Fall


moneypitmike
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Anyway...like I said the yesterday, it's not a very clean look for "torch" - nice to have the ensuing cycles jam that idea down our throats...

Now to be a hypocrite:  That GFS solution is full of schit just the same. It's just that it's too much - I find it hard to swallow, the notion of that kind of cold under 582 to 586 DAM heights...  That's stretching the tropospheric credibility at a mathematical level. The heights should be 'pullled' down at some point.  If the trough gets a bit more amplitude and the ridge east of 90W ...and S of 45N erodes more than it is... we'll talk.

I sometimes wonder if these NCEP modeler's 'force' seasonality into the runs rather than allow things to happen organically. ...I've heard and/or read over the years, no... They reserve cllimate 'fixing' practice only in the machine intelligence (MOS). I'm sure that is true, but...it seems ever more, as August has aged and relayed the baton ... the models get more and more aggressive with undercutting all these tall tropospheres with cool idiosyncrasies...   I don't think I have ever seen a winter storm/one of ur "southwest flow events" at 584 DAM heights ...which, take away actual freezing thickness, that set up tries to emulate. fascinating -

But know what?  hell - maybe this sort of shenanigans is more and more common in a now and the decades to come because of causes to remain nameless ... lest one incurs the wrath of denier fascist regime

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I love how W MA went from bone dry, parched earth to 3 weeks of tropical rains and now, dry dying lawns again.

 

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything torching again. I don’t think anyone south of the pike has rained close to 2 weeks. Or more in some cases 

 

51 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm fine with the dry...  The rain was unending

Send the rains here.  Been lucky that the high dews have kept the grass green.

90dPDataNRCC.png.8ccd2f70511f48a340b218fc8b86185b.png90dPDeptNRCC.png.b8cc48b58aab2ee28c0e1a530a54650a.png

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wow...that's really been fascinating getting the tight in radar evolution of Gordon's core over the last 12 hours.

It's got a proto eye as it leaves the southwest coastal region of Florida ...I suspect this thing may exceed TPC's assessments - not saying this is Katrina...but systems in that transit region/behavior seem to acquire intensity bias -

If I lived in Nora I'd be making plans man... If you don't need 'em, you don't need 'em...no harm no foul.  Buggin out of that area of LA would be high on my list of priorities if I resided anywhere within 20 foot sea level.  Just sayn'

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow...that's really been fascinating getting the tight in radar evolution of Gordon's core over the last 12 hours.

It's got a proto eye as it leaves the southwest coastal region of Florida ...I suspect this thing may exceed TPC's assessments - not saying this is Katrina...but systems in that transit region/behavior seem to acquire intensity bias -

If I lived in Nora I'd be making plans man... If you don't need 'em, you don't need 'em...no harm no foul.  Buggin out of that area of LA would be high on my list of priorities if I resided anywhere within 20 foot sea level.  Just sayn'

That 12z Euro run though. Hurricane strike from the northeast. (Florence)

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1036690577566445569

 

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