moneypitmike Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Fire it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Torch We start as a torch for sure, are there any signs of the heat/humid pattern breaking down? Looks like small intervals of seasonable/BN with long swaths of AAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Crawling instead of marching it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Who knows. Maybe this verifies next Sat but not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Shooting for 30 90F+ days. At 26 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 51 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: We start as a torch for sure, are there any signs of the heat/humid pattern breaking down? Looks like small intervals of seasonable/BN with long swaths of AAN. Other than climo slowly arguing for a tick down, don't see a massive pattern change. I do think after 9/15 we may have more cooler intrusions...naturally climo helps too. But September looks to be on the warmer side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Hints of some blocking showing up longer range on EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Maybe we can beat 1961 for September torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 1, 2018 Share Posted September 1, 2018 At least 3 90ish days on the table next week, probably 4. I hate my job on days like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 1, 2018 Share Posted September 1, 2018 August recap... warmest August in 120+ years at BTV and 2nd warmest at Montpelier (since 1947). One thing sticks out to me...how despite the 2nd warmest August at MPV, their highest temp was only 88F compared to 97F at BTV. And the average lows were record breaking but the average highs weren't even top 10 at Montpelier. The departures are all in the overnight minimums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2018 Share Posted September 1, 2018 I dunno - it's not a clean look for "torch" - subjectivity of that term, notwithstanding.. About the only aspect of the recent modeling that argues for a hot first half of September are in fact the geopential heights. However ... the models continue consummately creating idiosyncrasies in just about every other parameter in order to keep the lower troposphere cool relative to that canvas. Both the Euro and GGEM are as near as day four with a back-door front blithely cutting under 594 heights. Yeah, they may bust but who knows - Be it easterly wind components... highs sneak wedging from the N... or, lack of actually significant SD warmth in the lower thickness... I've been referring to it as a "gutted" ridge - it's all hollowed out of key parameters that would otherwise "fill" it with the heat. One aspect that could push the positive departures a bit higher are the nighttime lows... As has been the case much of the summer, most of that heat has been absorbed into the theta-e/WV - meaning very high DPs. NCEPs been mentioning the elevated nighttime lows much of the summer, but they've stayed out of discussing why... I think we all know, when driving down highways at some 70 mph and the smell of mold wafts in so pungent you crinkle your nose every now and again...it's been a dank summer. And that odor permeates under a summer sun, too. I tried to mow my lawn last weekend ... two days after any rain at all, in the heat and sun... You could see beads of water - the mulch was clogging and stalling the machine, while my feet ended up soaked. It's been sickly moist, to go with the concomitant warmth that has to come with holding that much DP in the air - just not exceptionally hot... the former causing that limitation. I have actively engaging gardeners describing overall blight's so bad it's hearkening to something out of the Plagues Of Egypt. Anyway, this may continue to characterize these next two weeks...with any seasonal cool (like today) replaced by returning high DPs with so-so actual high temperatures... I certainly don't think that "autumn" is afoot until the pattern meaningfully breaks down... not. However, despite these idiosyncrasies described about... the bounce back is heading up, not down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2018 Share Posted September 1, 2018 50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I dunno - it's not a clean look for "torch" - subjectivity of that term, notwithstanding.. About the only aspect of the recent modeling that argues for a hot first half of September are in fact the geopential heights. However ... the models continue consummately creating idiosyncrasies in just about every other parameter in order to keep the lower troposphere cool relative to that canvas. Both the Euro and GGEM are as near as day four with a back-door front blithely cutting under 594 heights. Yeah, they may bust but who knows - Be it easterly wind components... highs sneak wedging from the N... or, lack of actually significant SD warmth in the lower thickness... I've been referring to it as a "gutted" ridge - it's all hollowed out of key parameters that would otherwise "fill" it with the heat. One aspect that could push the positive departures a bit higher are the nighttime lows... As has been the case much of the summer, most of that heat has been absorbed into the theta-e/WV - meaning very high DPs. NCEPs been mentioning the elevated nighttime lows much of the summer, but they've stayed out of discussing why... I think we all know, when driving down highways at some 70 mph and the smell of mold wafts in so pungent you crinkle your nose every now and again...it's been a dank summer. And that odor permeates under a summer sun, too. I tried to mow my lawn last weekend ... two days after any rain at all, in the heat and sun... You could see beads of water - the mulch was clogging and stalling the machine, while my feet ended up soaked. It's been sickly moist, to go with the concomitant warmth that has to come with holding that much DP in the air - just not exceptionally hot... the former causing that limitation. I have actively engaging gardeners describing overall blight's so bad it's hearkening to something out of the Plagues Of Egypt. Anyway, this may continue to characterize these next two weeks...with any seasonal cool (like today) replaced by returning high DPs with so-so actual high temperatures... I certainly don't think that "autumn" is afoot until the pattern meaningfully breaks down... not. However, despite these idiosyncrasies described about... the bounce back is heading up, not down. Things have really dried out. Most of us in SNE are coming up on 2 weeks with no rain . Granted with 6-8” of rain in August, we aren’t entering a drought quite yet. But the top few inches of soil is very dry now. I mowed today and the tractor was throwing a lot of dust into air in places . Many lawns are just starting to burn out again after a near 2 week dry spell, torch after torch and sun with no rain in sight . Amazing how we go from feast to famine . We seen to be in a repetitive pattern of dry autumns the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Things have really dried out. Most of us in SNE are coming up on 2 weeks with no rain . Granted with 6-8” of rain in August, we aren’t entering a drought quite yet. But the top few inches of soil is very dry now. I mowed today and the tractor was throwing a lot of dust into air in places . Many lawns are just starting to burn out again after a near 2 week dry spell, torch after torch and sun with no rain in sight . Amazing how we go from feast to famine . We seen to be in a repetitive pattern of dry autumns the last few years Yup going brown here to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Let's do the HHH until Thanksgiving then do the flip to CCC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Good, dry is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Just now, Whineminster said: Let's do the HHH until Thanksgiving then do the flip to CCC Hopefully the high heat rolls through winter. That would be memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Hopefully the high heat rolls through winter. That would be memorable. Rudolph leading Santa through the thick dews yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Rudolph leading Santa through the thick dews yet again. Cupid burning his bare booty on the burning asphalt as Feb torches yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cupid burning his bare booty on the burning asphalt as Feb torches yet again. Tanuary of yore. Celebrating the new year like 1876. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Looking like a warm September for sure. Sorry Snowman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 At least the tropics are waking up. It’s possible ridging builds enough to bring Florence closer to EC. You sort of favor out to sea, but it’s not a non-zero threat for EC. Also goes for subsequent waves after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 The TORCH! Begins today . Front next weekend now looks meh as it hits SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 2, 2018 Author Share Posted September 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The TORCH! Begins today . Front next weekend now looks meh as it hits SE ridge I'll let today's progged high of 76* know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'll let today's progged high of 76* know. What’s your normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The TORCH! Begins today . Front next weekend now looks meh as it hits SE ridge Stop acting like you don't wish it was pumpkin-spice weather. Next weekend looks BN for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said: Stop acting like you don't wish it was pumpkin-spice weather. Next weekend looks BN for a few days No actually it doesnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 The few days of coc has rattled his cage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 I dunno.. to me if anything, the pattern looks more autumnal rather abruptly overnight ... Hey, man - you could all be right about September ... and we'll go on to notching up a +8 month.. But it won't be because of the teleconnector spread ...nor the longer range model tendencies. All of which argue for lowering heights across midriff Canadian shield becoming more coherent by mid month. That means an increased gradient and strengthening jet along the 50th parallel, in the means... Anyone with an iota of worth knows ... sustaining lofty numbers over New England would be next to impossible should that occur, regardless of yellow, orange, and red paint on anomaly products over St Louis - although I'm not sure what's driving the day's popular voice. If we end up +1 for September, that doesn't count, either. Frankly, I'm starting to wonder if the atmosphere has to work extra hard to make 0.0 averages as the new 'normal' is +.5 to account of a GW curve that doesn't happen here - right? I do agree with Scott re the tropics ... I'll add, the ridge along and off the EC that is currently being mistaken as a 'WAR' ridge... it's unusual 'tallness' in the troposphere is causing the compensating collapse of the geopotential medium farther east ~ 55W. True WAR ridges are mere extension of the Atlantic semi-permanent subtropical construct and this thing this week isn't integrated that way but ..that's something else. Anyway, said collapse appears to be the impetus for drawing [in the models] Florence polarward early. Not sure how/if to even correct that. We've been dealing with unusually tall heights all summer... Having yet another closed off 594 dam ridge node blossoming in the vicinity of the EC isn't really wrong ...and, basic wave-length argument should supply a compensating trough somewhere east of it. Yeah... It'll be interesting to see where this goes... Hopefully the GGEM will be right and it curve due N and goes bye-bye... just to watch the Euro be wrong.. ha. 'Course, there may be a Gulf bomb to contend with first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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