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Jonathan

Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

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On 7/26/2018 at 6:51 AM, Isopycnic said:

Drier, warmer. Snow in the Jan 10-15 timeframe. 

I like this prediction. I’d also add a ice storm in the Dec 3-9 timeframe. 

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We speculate on here about winter, and some write winter outlooks, etc., but in the real world, are there companies that actually make use of winter outlooks?  I would assume that they are used for energy market trading...and I would assume that, say, outdoor clothing companies (e.g. North Face) could make use of winter outlooks in preparing for supply & demand.  Anyway, I'm just speculating.  I was wondering if anyone could share info beyond speculation on this topic.  Thanks.

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56 minutes ago, griteater said:

We speculate on here about winter, and some write winter outlooks, etc., but in the real world, are there companies that actually make use of winter outlooks?  I would assume that they are used for energy market trading...and I would assume that, say, outdoor clothing companies (e.g. North Face) could make use of winter outlooks in preparing for supply & demand.  Anyway, I'm just speculating.  I was wondering if anyone could share info beyond speculation on this topic.  Thanks.

You have the normal folks like JB, DT-WxRisk, Accuweather, Farmers Almanac, CPC, etc.. But really it's all speculation. I suppose an el nino (west based) would favor eastern troughs (southern storm) tracks (cooler not cold in the SE), ocean temps would favor high/low dominance (like Alaskan low), and then you get into the theories like Asian October snow buildup, solar minimum (the year before or after??), soil moisture, etc.

I take everything with a grain of salt. 

          

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3 hours ago, griteater said:

We speculate on here about winter, and some write winter outlooks, etc., but in the real world, are there companies that actually make use of winter outlooks?  I would assume that they are used for energy market trading...and I would assume that, say, outdoor clothing companies (e.g. North Face) could make use of winter outlooks in preparing for supply & demand.  Anyway, I'm just speculating.  I was wondering if anyone could share info beyond speculation on this topic.  Thanks.

Long range weather projects  is a huge market for many public and private companies.

 I read a report on the Wall Street Journal it is a growing field.  Short term but,  longterm outlooks guide decisions about inventory, commodities, the futures markets, what to makwe on the assembly lines and beyond that retailers, and what to focus on and how much, beyond that even more such as chemicals and other compunds. Knowing ahead in weather is a big market.  

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2 hours ago, DopplerWx said:

just announced that the euro will run 4 cycles/day starting in oct.  winter will be fun, and cliff diving will be even more prevalent now!

Alright!!!! This is going to be good.

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On 9/27/2018 at 1:11 PM, DopplerWx said:

just announced that the euro will run 4 cycles/day starting in oct.  winter will be fun, and cliff diving will be even more prevalent now!

Info from StormVista on the Euro: 6z and 18z will run out to hr90 on the operational run, and out to hr144 on the ensemble run.  Sounds like they are waiting on a few things from ECMWF, but expect to begin having those runs 'soon.'

On the ENSO front, the latest weekly SST value for Nino 3.4 is up to +0.6.  Subsurface warmth continues to look healthy and more westerly winds are occurring across the central and east Pacific.  Weak El Nino looks like a solid call now IMO.

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On 9/27/2018 at 5:36 PM, jburns said:

I am moving now to corner the Ibuprofen market in the mod forum. 

:lol: Hell with that weak crap.......get the good stuff. 

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Holy ****....

As awesome as all that blue looks, it only corresponds to -0.6 to -0.8 colder than average in North and South Carolina.  (I believe those are degrees Celsius rather than Fahrenheit...but still.)

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9 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

As awesome as all that blue looks, it only corresponds to -0.6 to -0.8 colder than average in North and South Carolina.  (I believe those are degrees Celsius rather than Fahrenheit...but still.)

All it takes is .1 to make or break an event... Just saying 

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We can drool and fantasize all we want about those glamour model pics posted above. But as of right now we are married to the 700 lb gray headed woman who cant cook,clean and has no personality what so ever. The Southeast Ridge.

Edit; she hates football, golf ,hunting,fishing as well. And its highly likely she graduated from UNC. 

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9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

All it takes is .1 to make or break an event... Just saying 

There are so many things that can make or break an event.  2-m temperature is just one of them.  However, monthly average temperature does not necessarily have any effect on whether or not someone gets snow.  While highly unlikely, we could finish 0.5 degrees cooler than normal for the entire month by simply being 0.5 degree above normal on 27 days in February and 27.5 degrees below normal on the one other day.  I think we'd all just give up at that point, though!  :D

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14 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

There are so many things that can make or break an event.  2-m temperature is just one of them.  However, monthly average temperature does not necessarily have any effect on whether or not someone gets snow.  While highly unlikely, we could finish 0.5 degrees cooler than normal for the entire month by simply being 0.5 degree above normal on 27 days in February and 27.5 degrees below normal on the one other day.  I think we'd all just give up at that point, though!  :D

No lie 

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22 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

We can drool and fantasize all we want about those glamour model pics posted above. But as of right now we are married to the 700 lb gray headed woman who cant cook,clean and has no personality what so ever. The Southeast Ridge.

Edit; she hates football, golf ,hunting,fishing as well. And its highly likely she graduated from UNC. 

Or Clemson

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On 9/27/2018 at 9:35 AM, griteater said:

We speculate on here about winter, and some write winter outlooks, etc., but in the real world, are there companies that actually make use of winter outlooks?  I would assume that they are used for energy market trading...and I would assume that, say, outdoor clothing companies (e.g. North Face) could make use of winter outlooks in preparing for supply & demand.  Anyway, I'm just speculating.  I was wondering if anyone could share info beyond speculation on this topic.  Thanks.

I worked for a large apparel company in IT. Planning looked 13 weeks out into the future driven by market trends, placed orders, and anticipated orders based on input from relations with the retail stores. I wasn't at the level of knowing what was discussed, only in supporting the IT infrastructure. I'm sure that weather would affect the retail stores order planning, which would then affect our planning thru a change in the placed and anticipated orders.

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Starting to see some blue anomolies creep in just outside of hr200..that makes me sad. I would love to keep this heat for another 30-40 days. The golfball doesn’t fly in the cold! 

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9 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Starting to see some blue anomolies creep in just outside of hr200..that makes me sad. I would love to keep this heat for another 30-40 days. The golfball doesn’t fly in the cold! 

Bit early compared to the last few years ...

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8 hours ago, WarmNose said:

Starting to see some blue anomolies creep in just outside of hr200..that makes me sad. I would love to keep this heat for another 30-40 days. The golfball doesn’t fly in the cold! 

If I had the power to ban people...:D

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