Winter 2018-2019 Speculation

[Jonathan]

So, as the average daily temperature for our region begins to fall after today (7/23) let's talk winter in July!

What are the big indices looking like? What ENSO state are we entering into? Solar looking good which would make the QBO good for us? Any early animal coloration or behavior to look for?

Surely this winter can't be worse than the last two...could it?

[FallsLake]

From CPC:

Discussion - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

Map - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5

 

[frazdaddy]

32 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

From CPC:

Discussion - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

Map - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5

 

Good post,that and the solar minimum could be fun. How's your summer so far?

[Cold Rain]

Going to be a big winter.  Weak west-based or Modoki El Nino, lots of blocking, active STJ.  Boom!

[mackerel_sky]

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Going to be a big winter.  Weak west-based or Modoki El Nino, lots of blocking, active STJ.  Boom!

Thanks JB! May Charleston, SC get more snow than you again, for the 2nd year in a row!

[Cold Rain]

47 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Thanks JB! May Charleston, SC get more snow than you again, for the 2nd year in a row!

North, south, east, or west of me is where you want to be!  Where's Packbacker?

[DopplerWx]

Already excited for cool fall mornings and football, and prepared for 90 degrees in late October! Let's get it!

[jburns]

8 hours ago, Jonathan said:

So, as the average daily temperature for our region begins to fall after today (7/23) let's talk winter in July!

What are the big indices looking like? What ENSO state are we entering into? Solar looking good which would make the QBO good for us? Any early animal coloration or behavior to look for?

Surely this winter can't be worse than the last two...could it?

I would have responded but the days have gotten shorter and I didn't have the time.

[FallsLake]

7 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

Good post,that and the solar minimum could be fun. How's your summer so far?

Summers been good. Just got back from vacation at the outer banks. Loved the weather, most days in the low 80s and plenty of sunshine.

But, still can't wait for summer to end (..being the cold weather loving guy I am). Maybe in 5 months from now we'll be tracking a Christmas snow storm. Hope your summer is good as well. 

[No snow for you]

20 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

North, south, east, or west of me is where you want to be!  Where's Packbacker?

So I'm in the jackpot zone? you never want to be in the jackpot area this far out. 

[fountainguy97]

I’ll take it 

CFS really trending colder for front half of winter. 

 

Got to like the ENSO look heading into late summer. Not too mention pretty decent ice up north and a VERY slow melt season in Greenland.

 

that coupled with the solar min (a very significant minimum actually) gives way to some pretty epic recipes for winter.

[Isopycnic]

Drier, warmer. Snow in the Jan 10-15 timeframe. 

[Orangeburgwx]

'73', or '09... (Or bigger possible with this set up, this is the jackpot we never have hit)

 

[Orangeburgwx]

On 7/25/2018 at 4:55 PM, fountainguy97 said:

I’ll take it 

CFS really trending colder for front half of winter. 

 

Got to like the ENSO look heading into late summer. Not too mention pretty decent ice up north and a VERY slow melt season in Greenland.

 

that coupled with the solar min (a very significant minimum actually) gives way to some pretty epic recipes for winter.

However now it is trending back warmer/slightly above average

[fountainguy97]

9 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

However now it is trending back warmer/slightly above average

Yep! I don’t usually follow climate models just for that reason but they are comforting when supporting good winters. 

 

All in in all this really is a winter where all the factors could line up very nicely for winter. 

 

Solar minimum (probably a bigger deal than most make it out to be it is THE SUN after all lol)

weak nino promotes active STJ 

-qbo helps promote blocking and sustained cold 

 

All of the very early indicators that we can actually guess at this far out are not looking bad at all. In fact, this could be a fun one I just don’t like hyping myself up this early on haha

[Queencitywx]

Now that I'm living in Duke Forest, I have no idea what to expect. 

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

Now that I'm living in Duke Forest, I have no idea what to expect. 

Your in west Durham?

[SENC]

2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Now that I'm living in Duke Forest, I have no idea what to expect. 

Mini Ice Age? You brought this with you correct?   

[frazdaddy]

13 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Now that I'm living in Duke Forest, I have no idea what to expect. 

Welcome to the neighborhood sir!

[Isopycnic]

On 7/30/2018 at 6:09 PM, FallsLake said:

Your in west Durham?

Hi.

[Isopycnic]

On 7/30/2018 at 4:57 PM, Queencitywx said:

Now that I'm living in Duke Forest, I have no idea what to expect. 

Trolls, hobbits, hippies. 

[FallsLake]

4 minutes ago, Isopycnic said:

Hi.

Hawaii? 

[Isopycnic]

3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Hawaii? 

I wish. West durham is a LONG way from Hawaii... But is slightly closer to HI than waycross, ga. 

[Cold Rain]

1 hour ago, Isopycnic said:

I wish. West durham is a LONG way from Hawaii... But is slightly closer to HI than waycross, ga. 

There’s a lot less lava in West Durham also.

[FallsLake]

9 hours ago, Isopycnic said:

I wish. West durham is a LONG way from Hawaii... But is slightly closer to HI than waycross, ga. 

Lol, I gotcha.. Durham does have cheaper housing, and as CR stated less lava. 

[Isopycnic]

6 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Lol, I gotcha.. Durham does have cheaper housing, and as CR stated less lava. 

...not enough hula skirts

[Orangeburgwx]

Man those weeklies look absolutely hellish right now, I wish FOR ONCE we could catch a damn break and kick our good friends SER and WAA out.

[FallsLake]

The sun will set for the first time in over two months in Barrow Alaska late tonight/tomorrow:

http://aa.usno.navy.mil/cgi-bin/aa_rstablew.pl?ID=AA&year=2018&task=0&state=AK&place=barrow

Fall is coming. I know, no SE cool down for another 5-6 weeks, but..... 

[Queencitywx]

On 7/31/2018 at 6:56 AM, frazdaddy said:

Welcome to the neighborhood sir!

Thanks man! I’ve been on a roll lately, hope I brought the mojo. I couldn’t convince the girlfriend to live in Hillsborough or Roxboro. 

On 7/30/2018 at 6:09 PM, FallsLake said:

Your in west Durham?

Yes sir, about two miles from the OrCo line, just off 751. 

[Queencitywx]

Been poking around the Maps and it looks like I’ll do okay for this area.