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July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

vis_nj_anim.gif

Clouds clearing, working in from the SSE

We're not clearing out today. Might get lucky and see a few breaks of sun, which would only help to destabilize even more.

The strongest axis of lift is working Westward, so the next 24 hours shouldn't be quite as wet in most locations, but chances for rain increase going into Wednesday. 

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14 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Wow you're doing much better than here on this side of the river. It's wet enough though, I don't need the big numbers  ;)

 

10 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Agree I'm about 1/2 a mile from the river. I have 0.94 in the bucket since midnight.

Some stations just west of me are approaching 4"

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24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hardest hit area over the next 2-3 days appears to be far Eastern PA, but I suspect that most of Western NJ is in for a good soaking as well.

Some stations just west of me near the NJ/PA/NY border are approaching 3" since midnight & 4" since the event started. Drastic difference from areas near or E of the Hudson. 

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39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been fairly benign thus far, we'll see if we can get more organized convection. There's definitely more instability today, but not much of a trigger. 

Wednesday will give us the best chances, perhaps the region will escape any flooding rains. 

And then after wednesday it looks as if it will improve. The models aren't showing much for thursday through the weekend. Then perhaps an increase in activity early next week.

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5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

starting to think we haven't seen the worst of the WAR yet. the signal for late next week and beyond looks strong on the EPS and GFES

 

 

It's interesting how the models have been trying to weaken the WAR longer range but correct stronger the closer we get.

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