March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[Weenie]

Just amateur observations but not only is the HRRR trending west by 50 or 60 miles every run, but the trof is digging down slightly further each time. Probably just noise though

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep, just came out and MPM for you

Nice 6-12 “ river east sig there. That’s on a lot of guidance 

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I actually think there could be an area of disappointment for a lot of SNE.

Max band will be right along the coast or near coastal front near Boston and down through the South Shore. Best low level warm advection etc. Probably the jackpot zone.

Second area is pretty far west with some nice 500-700hpa frontogenesis. In between I could see a bit of a sucker hole. 

may even be some dim sun out in the sub zone with tiny wind fractured flurries

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, Weenie said:

Just amateur observations but not only is the HRRR trending west by 50 or 60 miles every run, but the trof is digging down slightly further each time. Probably just noise though

Ignore the HRRR until 6pm

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I actually think there could be an area of disappointment for a lot of SNE.

Max band will be right along the coast or near coastal front near Boston and down through the South Shore. Best low level warm advection etc. Probably the jackpot zone.

Second area is pretty far west with some nice 500-700hpa frontogenesis. In between I could see a bit of a sucker hole. 

Box hammering 850-700 stuff centered near canal

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks like the 09z SREFs trimmed back a hair, but relatively minor.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Weenie said:

Just amateur observations but not only is the HRRR trending west by 50 or 60 miles every run, but the trof is digging down slightly further each time. Probably just noise though

I noticed it too. Not just at the end of the run.

[Damage In Tolland]

I wouldn’t be using HRRR at all until tonight 

[weathafella]

 Boxing Day 2 incoming?  Works for me but some will try to harm me if I’m happy...lol.

[DomNH]

Just now, weathafella said:

 Boxing Day 2 incoming?  Works for me but some will try to harm me if I’m happy...lol.

All yours! No complaints if I suck exhaust all day. 

[jbenedet]

24 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

One thing is that there's decent synoptic support well west with this thing so we are going to see good snows away from the center. For far eastern areas too the H7 low is very spread out so the best forcing is well NW. 

That said - it's hard to get a widespread 1-2 feet with the storm fairly far offshore. 

Yes. This. Once the storm stacks it's very asymmetrical with most of the circulation on the west side... Misleading to follow 850 to surface depiction for sensible weather impacts..

This is also why we're seeing model qpf output increase with latitude --- as the system stacks, circulation will expand hundreds of miles to the west, and lots of UL vorticity to tap into with crashing heights...

[Baroclinic Zone]

One stop shop for snow accum (Boston centric)

[JC-CT]

I actually think the NAM will have a better phase this run.

[Cold Miser]

Ryan rightfully going conservative in our state.  Those 10"-16" numbers for my area by NWS were funny. Ryan is back to reality with a 6"-9" spot over Windham County. 

From his FB post earlier:
"We've been keeping things conservative as the center of this storm is going to track awfully far offshore."

Putting the sanity back into forecasting.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Box trimmed bliz conditions from 495 to 128.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I actually think the NAM will have a better phase this run.

Northern s/w a little west and diving down the back of the Southern s/w, Should be west some.

[TalcottWx]

Wouldn't be surprised to see this snow pretty widespread on Wednesday 

[Lava Rock]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep, just came out and MPM for you

wow, look at that cut off.

[Weenie]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I actually think the NAM will have a better phase this run.

It's definitely 2-3mb stronger and slightly farther west

[dryslot]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

wow, look at that cut off.

[JBinStoughton]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Box trimmed bliz conditions from 495 to 128.

Wouldn’t that make more sense on account of the wind field alone?

[Buddy1987]

Coming down this morning in western VA.

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Ryan rightfully going conservative in our state.  Those 10"-16" numbers for my area by NWS were funny. Ryan is back to reality with a 6"-9" spot over Windham County. 

From his FB post earlier:
"We've been keeping things conservative as the center of this storm is going to track awfully far offshore."

Putting the sanity back into forecasting.  

Lol

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Weenie said:

It's definitely 2-3mb stronger and slightly farther west

look at the 500mb height and vorticity maps.

[CoastalWx]

srn s/w is a hair faster than 6z, but nrn stream better. Not sure if it means much yet.

[Weenie]

Trof is significantly more tilted this run, low is in same position albeit slightly deeper which has been the norm

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

srn s/w is a hair faster than 6z, but nrn stream better. Not sure if it means much yet.

It probably means it will go to town for the coastal plain but sharper cutoff to the west.

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

srn s/w is a hair faster than 6z, but nrn stream better. Not sure if it means much yet.

Yeah I was worried about a later hook, but it looks pretty decent at 15hr.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I was worried about a later hook, but it looks pretty decent at 15hr.

If that thing slowed.......

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If that thing slowed.......

or if the northern stream s/w came in a bit stronger for a sharper trough and earlier capture...