jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: If the UK is all snow for NYC, which it may be....oh boy. Probably is. Low looks to be south of Montauk, and this will be tightly wound. From the looks of that, dryslotting looks to be confined to far eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: It's moving towards consensus. NAM is the west outlier and Euro the east outlier. I'd be pretty shocked if the Euro doesn't bump west today or tonight. The other question is when the east hook begins. A sooner closing off may help it start jogging east earlier. The hug up to around Cape May looks real-what happens after that is what'll make or break it around NYC. Agreed.. The euro is without a doubt the eastern outlier tho. Considering how the NAM remains tucked in and all other guidance leaning in that direction, it cannot be discounted. The GFS is prob closest to reality right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It's moving towards consensus. NAM is the west outlier and Euro the east outlier. I'd be pretty shocked if the Euro doesn't bump west today or tonight. The other question is when the east hook begins. A sooner closing off may help it start jogging east earlier. The hug up to around Cape May looks real-what happens after that is what'll make or break it around NYC. The one common denominator today is that the models are forecasting a closer in track near SNJ. Like you said, it's how sharp a hook to the east after that which will make the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: The one common denominator today is that the models are forecasting a closer in track near SNJ. Like you said, it's how sharp a hook to the east after that which will make the forecast. Wow.. Thats a pretty good consensus between the OP & its ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 anybody have a final QPF output for the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Wow.. Thats a pretty good consensus between the OP & its ensembles The 12zGEFS is even more tucked near SNJ like some of the other guidance with the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: Wow.. Thats a pretty good consensus between the OP & its ensembles This is not good news for coastal locations . If this closer to the coast track verifies , coastal flooding is going to be a major problem again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Deep thunder has 7 inches for NYC with more in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: The 12z is even more tucked near SNJ like some of the other guidance with the individual members. Gefs usually follow the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Where do you get that from? I am on the Meteocenter site and I see 48 hours on the RGEM.... 0z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_00/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif 6z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_06/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif 12z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_12/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif 18z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_18/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Probably is. Low looks to be south of Montauk, and this will be tightly wound. From the looks of that, dryslotting looks to be confined to far eastern areas. Ukie looks like a dream track for I-95 with 10-15”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Unlike last year, at least there's a -AO in place, but that track is very close. I'm leaning towards dry slot/mixing concerns near the coast. Looks like a MECS for N&W areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think it's more the wind that people could do without. It's a disaster zone in a lot of places, especially to the Southwest of NYC. North too I'm still dark and cold 50 miles.due north of midtown. The sheer number of lines still down is overwhelming. More than half of my town is still without power and most traffic lights in the region are still not working either. Getting around is challenging but getting better. I am going to have to go get more firewood again before dark though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Not what I wanted to see for NYC/LIYeah.. Writing may be on the wall for LI with this oneSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 0z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_00/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif 6z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_06/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif 12z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_12/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif 18z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_18/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif Thanks Don. Is there an actual site/web pages I can go to? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Yeah.. Writing may be on the wall for LI with this one Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Ukie was great for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Thanks Don. Is there an actual site/web pages I can go to? Thanks in advance. According to my previously having contacted Meteocentre, the pages have not been formally published. The extended RGEM is for research purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Ukie was great for the coastHaha Anthony... I said may be. Secondly... All models are starting to hint that this phase over nc/SC area. That type of phase without a strong HP to force it somewhat off the coast is normally a hard track to keep LI as all frozen. Not impossible, but hard. So while the ukie is great for the coast, it's been in the euro camp, and it is caving (seemingly) towards the American models. This gives me pause for a blockbuster for LI. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3k matches the 12k pretty much with that tucked solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 with a 50/50 chance of 8+ for areas N and NW of NYC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, allgame830 said: with a 50/50 chance of 8+ for areas N and NW of NYC.... That's 9 hrs old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 29 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Yeah.. Writing may be on the wall for LI with this one Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Not so sure about that yet, I think the NAM may be overdone. But to me this looked like one that could easily trend west and amped, and the ridging east of the low would allow a hugger track. The low is compact so there will be cold air close to the center, but the upper air pattern and earlier tendency to phase aren’t good either. It’s going to more of a 3/14/17 look which isn’t what I want to see. The Euro being stout on an east track is a little encouraging at least. Hopefully tonight and early tomorrow we’ll see what wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Looks like rain and sleet to me for more than half of NJ The rgem was 50mm of snow for NYC lol per the meteogram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The GFS and Ukmet show how a hugger can still work for NYC by the hook east starting around Cape May. If it keeps going north though after that, it’ll be too late and warm air and dryslotting will get in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I take that back, the Euro comes almost due North, after starting out way South. Looks like a correction run incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro is so suppressed, and so far East that it might miss everyone except Suffolk this run. Euro big jump west. Nj crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The Euro is going to be a good hit for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I take that back, the Euro comes almost due North, after starting out way South. Looks like a correction run incoming. Shame on you!! none taken bro.... I am loving this run. Looks like to me we have some really good consensus coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, weatherlogix said: Where do you get that from? I am on the Meteocenter site and I see 48 hours on the RGEM.... Click on a map and open it in a new tap and then change the timestamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Euro correcting west as expected. I’m thinking it’ll come down to what happens with the low once it gets to between Cape May and ACY. Does it keep going north or head NE? Where do the 500 and 700 lows track? You want them to go east of you as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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