Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Damage In Tolland]

Final call is 12-16 Nw of 84

8-12 South of 84 down to SW CT 

4-8 Se CT in New London County 

I do have a concern of BL in the valley so could see 6-8 there if that is in fact an issue 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Upton cut back totals in the area. I say they are awful because they start high then either refuse to cut back aka Jan 15 or refuse to cut back aka Mar 17 because they did not want the public to drop their guards. So this time, they hug the nam/gfs, totally disregard RGEM/UK/Euro...and cut back? 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tension

Scott or Will or Anyone-

 Tracks for gfs and euro (getting closer) there are obvious thermal differences w euro 0c 925 line.

Does euro show 925-950 inflow from a more ene direction over say Bos-Bvy Than gfs I.e gfs more e /ese?

 

[dryslot]

The good ole firehose

The Details:  Primary axis of snow will be south of the region...
just entering southern New England at 12 UTC.  Have to watch coastal
areas in the morning with model sounding profiles showing the
potential for some ocean enhanced snow shower or perhaps drizzle
give saturated low levels.  Have boosted PoPs but will not mention
drizzle/freezing drizzle until confidence in this scenario grows.
Otherwise...have sped up snowfall arrival time an hour or two from
what was inherited with conditions rapidly deteriorating as
southeasterly low level jet strengthens ahead of strengthening low
pressure to the south.   This -4 to -5 sigma easterly jet will
result in what looks to be a "firehose" of heavy precipitation that
arrives over southern New Hampshire after 4pm with about a 6-9 hour
period of 1-3" per hour snowfall rates following this.  MUCAPE progs
indicate some potential for thundersnow perhaps sneaking into
coastal areas.  Thus...the 5pm-5am period looks the most dangerous
in terms of travel.  On Thursday...low pressure moves into the Gulf
of Maine while filling as it then slowly wobbles north and west
across eastern and northern Maine Thursday night.  Thus...expect all
areas to be snowing at daybreak with a gradual decrease in snowfall
intensity and coverage from south to north during the day as dynamic
forcing wanes and low pressure weakens.

Snow:  Have not made substantial changes to the snow forecast with
this package...with 12-18" for most locations...but focusing a band
in the climatologically favored area just inland from the coast /EEN-
SFM-LEW/ of a few inches more than this...reaching to around 20".
Biggest questions are along the immediate coast...with boundary
layer temperatures marginal through Wednesday afternoon and evening
before any mix collapses back to the coast after midnight.
Here...have some amounts near 6" along the immediate coast...quickly
ramping up as you head inland.  Some room for these to change as
well given that we/re still about 24 hours before things really get
going.

[Ginx snewx]

Think i will go with this, looks about right

[CT Rain]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Think i will go with this, looks about right

That's old. BOX has 8" at BDL now. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Final call is 12-16 Nw of 84

8-12 South of 84 down to SW CT 

4-8 Se CT in New London County 

I do have a concern of BL in the valley so could see 6-8 there if that is in fact an issue 

what about NE of 84 

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

That's old. BOX has 8" at BDL now. 

He's posting it as his map

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

That's old. BOX has 8" at BDL now. 

Don't care my final call I am going with this

[bobbutts]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Think i will go with this, looks about right

congrats hubb

[Juliancolton]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Think i will go with this, looks about right

That is (or was, I see) uncharacteristically good cross-office collaboration.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

He's posting it as his map

Yep

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

That's old. BOX has 8" at BDL now. 

It was initialized at 21z.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep

I wonder how todays volatility will affect Ryan’s forecast tonight.

[Johnno]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wonder how todays volatility will affect Ryan’s forecast tonight.

New accum map, tightened everything up, added 16-20 for Cornwall, Goshen, Sharon area

[w1pf]

Lapis is saying the rain-snow line may make it to I-91.. YMMV.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

what about NE of 84 

Should have said north and west . Extend that to Putnam too

Your amounts please?

Also .. didn’t have a chance.. how long into Thursday afternoon does Euro keep it snowing?

[Ginx snewx]

My Maine dudes, take care of yourselves, look forward to playing in your 2 footer with more in the pipeline. enjoy should be blower up high.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Think i will go with this, looks about right

Man do i miss Sam Lilo's snow maps, He had some areas lets say that had some girth..................

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wonder how todays volatility will affect Ryan’s forecast tonight.

He's going 4-8" down here. Yikes. Thought I was solid for 10+. Still would think so with the expected track but who knows.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Hoth said:

He's going 4-8" down here. Yikes. Thought I was solid for 10+. Still would think so with the expected track but who knows.

Looks like he’s weighing nam/gfs very heavy. We shall see.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Should have said north and west . Extend that to Putnam too

Your amounts please?

see above the old NDFD map I posted before the NWS panicked on the GFS NAM combo

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Final call is 12-16 Nw of 84

8-12 South of 84 down to SW CT 

4-8 Se CT in New London County 

I do have a concern of BL in the valley so could see 6-8 there if that is in fact an issue 

I agree with that.  Nice job man, I think that's a reasonable call. 

I think you'd like the 3km NAM... like 10-12" for you and 4" in the valley due to BL warmth.  Very elevational on that product.

Looking at the 925mb temps, I'm leaning towards this being more elevational dependent than many are thinking at least there hasn't been a ton of talk about it.  Even up here.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Man do i miss Sam Lilo's snow maps, He had some areas lets say that had some girth..................

Yes Sam was THE man, wouldn't be surprised at all if you are under blizzard warnings tomorrow

[CT Rain]

Here's my forecast. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Here's my forecast. 

Nice Job, good luck, hopefully for you Bob doesn't have the crayons and erasers out tomorrow morning

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

He's going 4-8" down here. Yikes. Thought I was solid for 10+. Still would think so with the expected track but who knows.

Solid for a 10+ in Hamden? Hopefuly the colder solutions verify and we can end up in the double digits but at the same time i dont think little to nothing is out of the question either. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

see above the old NDFD map I posted before the NWS panicked on the GFS NAM combo

I didn’t see it. Oh well

[Ginx snewx]

just in case anyone missed it. Todays Euro

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I agree with that.  Nice job man, I think that's a reasonable call. 

I think you'd like the 3km NAM... like 10-12" for you and 4" in the valley due to BL warmth.  Very elevational on that product.

Looking at the 925mb temps, I'm leaning towards this being more elevational dependent than many are thinking at least there hasn't been a ton of talk about it.  Even up here.

I’m just not convinced it’s an elevation setup . I think it will play a role on pavements , but if it’s thumping it doesn’t matter. I guess I’d knock off 2-4” lower due to that .