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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And the rest of SNE?

Interior SNE would do well. However, it's also sort of at the end of the run and RGEM reliability sometimes isn't the greatest. Overall I feel this is an interior SNE event. Thinking interior NE MA through NW RI and much of CT away from SE part of state. I understand the euro is colder and east, but I can't help but think it may come west so I am not sold on a snowy outcome near BOS at this time. Best chance for them is in 2nd half of storm. Hopefully the 12z stuff comes east.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Interior SNE would do well. However, it's also sort of at the end of the run and RGEM reliability sometimes isn't the greatest. Overall I feel this is an interior SNE event. Thinking interior NE MA through NW RI and much of CT away from SE part of state. I understand the euro is colder and east, but I can't help but think it may come west so I am not sold on a snowy outcome near BOS at this time. Best chance for them is in 2nd half of storm. Hopefully the 12z stuff comes east.

This is my fear about going to Pit2.  I think there's a strong likelihood that it will tone that east position down a bit along with some qpf/dynamics that Pit2 is currently on the eastern edge of.  I'm thinking 12-18" Berks to Hubb to Dendrite to Jeff, tone down from there as you head SE with pretty steady drops as you head SE of 91/90.  Still solid warning event for NE CT, Kev.

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From GYX morning AFD:

With mid level
low tracks in this area...parts of Srn NH and coastal Wrn ME are
favored for a potentially major snowfall. Increasing
frontogenesis will already be ramping up the forcing for ascent
Wed afternoon...but as the mid level lows deepen deformation
will be increasing along and NW of their path. This will likely
lead to some intense banding for interior parts of New England.
The best combination of Atlantic inflow...upper dynamics...and
QPF favors Srn NH for the highest snowfall totals.

06 GFS pounds the ASH-PSM-SFM region with 2-2.5" qpf.  50 miles north and it's an inch less.  (Still enough for double digits)

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1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Argument is to blend vs. toss GFS, GEFS.  Personally I think the Euro is a bit too far east, GFS too far west and a compromise which is good for most of the interior is the most likely but will have to watch 12z.  

I think we should just take the 06z Hi res Canadian and go with that.  What a weenie run. 

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