JC-CT Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: For all Your location is terrible for paste. You should move to where it pastes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 54 minutes ago, Hoth said: Did not like the look of the Euro down here. If it gets any later we'll be enjoying a chilly nw wind and veiled sunshine Wednesday. Fwiw, I see nothing on any of the ensembles that would suggest a correction east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Fwiw, I see nothing on any of the ensembles that would suggest a correction east. Yeah, I actually just saw the EPS. Really nice looking, although we've entered the period where we weigh the ops more. I still like the Jan '11 track idea of sending it over the elbow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah, I actually just saw the EPS. Really nice looking, although we've entered the period where we weigh the ops more. I still like the Jan '11 track idea of sending it over the elbow. I agree about the OP, but we still should take note when it is on the east side of major guidance and also on the far eastern edge of its own ensembles. It just tells us a correction east is that much less likely. I think you are good in this one tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Enjoy everyone, will be in San Diego for this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: I agree about the OP, but we still should take note when it is on the east side of major guidance and also on the far eastern edge of its own ensembles. It just tells us a correction east is that much less likely. I think you are good in this one tbh. Yeah, I agree. I had a bit of a knee jerk reaction seeing some of the comments before I looked at things more closely. Really nice omega/high lapse rates cross CT on Wednesday with this thing. I think we make out just fine. Almost all guidance and EPS are west of the Euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Enjoy everyone, will be in San Diego for this one. . That's a page out of my playbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Wizzy would get a woody for those lapse rates in May. Thundersnow possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Looking for some deform love in NW Hills..Aly has ceiling of 15/16" for my area, probability 8-12" I'm going with for Litchfield county... better ratios west imho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, tavwtby said: Looking for some deform love in NW Hills..Aly has ceiling of 15/16" for my area, probability 8-12" I'm going with for Litchfield county... better ratios west imho.. that seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Lock the Euro please, Actually, Can lock all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Lock the Euro please, Actually, Can lock all of them. The coast will take the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Oh boy, a classic march noreaster. I'll get my umby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 37 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah, I agree. I had a bit of a knee jerk reaction seeing some of the comments before I looked at things more closely. Really nice omega/high lapse rates cross CT on Wednesday with this thing. I think we make out just fine. Almost all guidance and EPS are west of the Euro op. Yup. It will down to when the northern stream wants to drop in. It’s obv not that simple but we pretty much have all the major players in place. Like, it’s not whiffing and it’s not running up the hudson....but if no stream involvement, regardless of track, then you end up with a weaker disjointed 6-10” type of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just took a look at the 06z GFS and NAM...la la lock 'em up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: Lock the Euro please, Actually, Can lock all of them. 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The coast will take the Euro. Exactly, coast needs the Euro to be right otherwise taint will limit our totals big time. Would love to see the other guidance today tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, tunafish said: Exactly, coast needs the Euro to be right otherwise taint will limit our totals big time. Would love to see the other guidance today tick east. And if it is, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, tunafish said: Exactly, coast needs the Euro to be right otherwise taint will limit our totals big time. Would love to see the other guidance today tick east. There is not much in the guidance leaning that way as of now. Ray was hinting at the possibility of a later phase so I guess that could help some coastal folks if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Sign me up for the 6z NAM please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: And if it is, watch out. If it tucks closer at 12z you will want to be at pit one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Man ... what I would give to see the blend of the last three NAM cycles verify, 18z, 00z and 06z since Sunday afternoon through this morning. Those mechanics are really about as top tier ceiling as can be... I guess one could be crazed enough to want it -.5 C less through the thermal plumb but ... mm, isothermal around -.5 at max deposition rates, up to just beneath the snow growth part of the sounding where in said signma levels there's what ? 40 to 50 units of UVM for almost nine straight hours...? Yeah, that prooooobably is rare enough to appreciate the significance of this thing as a snow producer as it is... I read somewhere ... I have a dim memory (anyways but...) that the NAM is set to be yanked? As in, decommissioned. That may be so... hell, it may even be warranted. But, we shall miss these marvelous eye-popping cinemas of this particular model's inimitable panache when it comes to assessing these scenarios that approach perfection like that. It seems to almost "spike" that complexion? Like, it's not good enough that the Global models have a solid impact event, the NAM sees this sort of set up... and its always gotta take it to the next level ... and then some? If I'm just counting synoptic chart intervals, that looks like 26" at KBED to KORH .. that's gotta be wrong, right? Here's the thing ... conservatism, to mention common f'n decency, argues less. Okay. However, I don't know if this is merely over-proficiency with the NAM. 20" of snow at 10::1 is very difficult for the atmosphere to pull off, and thus ...should be rare when understanding that difficulty by definition. Excluding the water content for a moment: A ... it's happened before. In January 19th or 20th ...1978, there was a almost that much snow in 12 hours! December, 10th 2005, we had 15" in metro-west in three to four hours, with lightning and thunder. And who can forget the December 23rd "Snow Bomb" storm of 1997 ... 16" fell in four hours was the common result, and to this day, caused the lowest visibility that I have ever seen in my life. About 10 feet with zippo exaggeration... period!.. And, as much as 21" felled over the max spots in that one, too, so someone may have really been bona fide 0 eye sight. It's not like what the NAM is saying is so rare as to be obscene. It's just that it's not that frequent. I suppose its the juxtaposition with the other guidance that range less that should give us pause and consternation and so forth... However, in each on of the cases I just cited above with the exception of 1978, the NAM or it's ancestor led the way .. just something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 First out of the barn is the baby colt barely walking (aka SREFS) but sending a good signal for coastal areas off the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: There is not much in the guidance leaning that way as of now. Ray was hinting at the possibility of a later phase so I guess that could help some coastal folks if it happens. 13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: If it tucks closer at 12z you will want to be at pit one. I think we'll still get hit good at Pit 2 even if it does tuck earlier, it's not really gaining latitude. The difference will be between good and betterer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Duxbury/ Marshfield area is a warzone right now. Widowmaker trees everywhere. We get a paste job and everything thats hanging on by a thread is coming down. Trees leaning everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, amarshall said: Duxbury/ Marshfield area is a warzone right now. Widowmaker trees everywhere. We get a paste job and everything thats hanging on by a thread is coming down. Trees leaning everywhere I feel for ya. Lets hope that area can avoid the paste and stay liquid then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: If it tucks closer at 12z you will want to be at pit one. 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I think we'll still get hit good at Pit 2 even if it does tuck earlier, it's not really gaining latitude. The difference will be between good and betterer. Its kicks east a bit before getting captured and tugged back to the west and slows down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Man it's ride the EURO or bring the umbrella here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 nam wants to drop the northern low into the bucket early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NAM looking like it wants to amp a little more again on 12z vs 6z at 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, BRSno said: Man it's ride the EURO or bring the umbrella here. CMC is in the EURO's camp as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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