Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: And if all else fails......just run with the ICON...LOL heh, right - the ever more dependable fall-back solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Ha ha ... sounds like NCEP has a pretty clear picture on how this thing will evolve ... "....WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS... EAST... GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST, MAXIMIZED ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. WHAT WILL MAKE THE WINTER ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING FOR MUCH OF THE EAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IS THE ROLE OF SUN ANGLE (TIME OF DAY), PRECIPITATION RATE, ELEVATION, AND COASTAL PROXIMITY NOT TO MENTION MESOSCALE BANDING (UNRESOLVED UNTIL THE VERY SHORT RANGE) AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW (OR LOWS) AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON ROAD SURFACES VS GRASSY AREAS. THAT BEING SAID, THE UPSIDE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IS ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN ALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (NOT THE MOST LIKELY, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE MID-ATLANTIC IN LATE MARCH), BUT THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW (OR LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EVEN IF SNOWING) WITH LESS THAN IDEAL SNOW-MAKING CONDITIONS. WITH A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS, PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION IS IDEAL... INCLUDING OUR WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR NEXT MON-FRI...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its to far out to worry which way this is heading, I'm monitoring it and will look more in depth next week when we get 3 days or so out. You just said winter made a good run ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You just said winter made a good run ? And i got someone to bite............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS are def pretty ugly. But that said, I'll remind everyone to take a look at the March 8th EPS for the 3/13 storm...they were hideous too. They really didn't start looking decent until the 3/9 runs (and the OP took even a little longer) which is why I'd give it another couple cycles. The GEFS def did better in the medium range. It doesn't mean they will beat the EPS this time though....EPS are still the best in the business, but right now they are def the SE outlier. GEFS/GEPS are well NW of them and so is the OP Ukie (no ensembles for that). Last Saturday morning the GFS was barely advisory criteria for Augusta on Tues-Wed, and even that was an improvement from the day before. By 00z Sunday it was showing a buck and a half, which was pretty close to where it sugared off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 As has been typical for this season.....we just need to wait, watch and continue insulting and calling each other names!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 51 minutes ago, CT Rain said: EPS looks south/more OTS. good, i'm done with winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well that happens in every storm. But empirically speaking, the EPS didn't start showing a pretty threatening signal until once inside of 100 hours, so that is why I'd wait a little longer on the current threat...especially since it is the southeast outlier amongst multi-model ensemble guidance. What are the things you are looking at that you have been liking to get this a SNE hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'd also add that the EPS tends to move along with the operational a bit more readily as a mean ... So the Euro went disjointed more so and lost some coherency etc... this run being flat could really just be a mean/average of the same shebang - ... For me, the bigger telling aspect is the discontinuity that Kevin (of all people..heh) succinctly expressed awhile ago with that blurb about 12z off, 00z on, 12z off oscillatory confusion. It really means the model cluster isn't very good with this and I'd leave it at that. Or as Will said... just give it a day and a half. That oscillation was prevalent in the mid-range before the last storm too. 12z would be flat as a pancake and 0z would be up at NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What are the things you are looking at that you have been liking to get this a SNE hit? I like the southern stream wave behind the initial bowling ball and also the northern stream injection...they are going to try and force the whole trough to amp up. We also don't have a good block on this one...so the SE Canada PV lobe can lift out quicker with any forcing from the south. Doesn't mean it is going to hit obviously. That bowling ball outrunning the other two shortwaves could end up problematic. But there's some reasons to believe we get things to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Start emotionally and financially investing on Sunday morning, til then...enjoy your Friday night and Saturday folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 With the Euro ots and the GGEM south, I expect to see the GFS start to follow suit at 18z and 0z. This system was never going to be the hugger it showed a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Lol at the poo pooing. You'd think after the evolution of the last storm, there wouldn't be any towel throwing this early. Some learn, most don't. Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, Hazey said: Lol at the poo pooing. You'd think after the evolution of the last storm, there wouldn't be any towel throwing this early. Some learn, most don't. Sigh... Better to be towel throwing now, than getting invested only to be bridge jumping later, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Better to be towel throwing now, than getting invested only to be bridge jumping later, lol.Thank god you guys were fished out of the Charles in time to enjoy the last storm. Close call there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Have a hard time believing this gets shunted south that much with waning blocking, am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 18z GFS follows the script south. The second impulse on Thursday does give us a few inches around here, more towards the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 How many times have we seen this story over the years. Every single time we know how the story ends. Those that have been around sit back and relax . We know . Op model huggers 5 days out.. do your thing and then join us on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: Better to be towel throwing now, than getting invested only to be bridge jumping later, lol. I don’t agree. You’ve been around a long time. How many times have you seen whiffs SE in late March? It can happen but it’s lower odds vs mid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: I don’t agree. You’ve been around a long time. How many times have you seen whiffs SE in late March? It can happen but it’s lower odds vs mid winter. You almost never get suppression in Morch. The PV lifts out. Blocking is leaving. This ones easy to see. Sharpen the shovels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You almost never get suppression in Morch. The PV lifts out. Blocking is leaving. This ones easy to see. Sharpen the shovels Garden shovels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 You folks are on a heater and you never leave the table when you are on a heater. Hard to buck seasonal trends even this late in the game. Get your records. They don't come easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You almost never get suppression in Morch. The PV lifts out. Blocking is leaving. This ones easy to see. Sharpen the shovels Classic, I agree. Do not put the shovels away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 SE Mass special on the 18z gfs. I think people might lose their minds if that was the final outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 This reminds me some of the run-up to Boxing Day. We had a great long-wave pattern with that one, but the models couldn't resolve the plethora of short waves until about 48 hours before the event. I am not expecting a powerhouse storm like that...but something pretty good seems within the realm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: This reminds me some of the run-up to Boxing Day. We had a great long-wave pattern with that one, but the models couldn't resolve the plethora of short waves until about 48 hours before the event. I am not expecting a powerhouse storm like that...but something pretty good seems within the realm. Why would this one buck the seasonal trend anyways? I mean we have not had a system that was a lock at a long lead this season, We have had a few that looked good potentially but still needed to get inside day 3 or less to see who the haves and have nots would be, I see this one following the same pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 GEFS are a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: GEFS are a big hit Definitely more robust vs op. Flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 There is an end to this if one believes the GEF tele's .. how dare I mention it but it could break warmer pretty quickly in 10 days. One thing I find interesting is that over the last 10 years .. with increasing frequency when patterns break cold or hot it's alway got to be 40 deg in like 4 days the operationals aren't biting just yet ... supposing for the moment that the GEFs signal is correct. But the PNA goes neutral negative and the EPO appears less effective due to wave lengths already changing. Therefore when the NAO flip signs and it does pretty dramatically going from -2 to +2 standard deviation, that really leaves eastern North America open to some kind of ridging. I think it's possible that as we get closer to day 7 8 9, after the storm next week… we could see that burgeon into existence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 impressive cold and wind outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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