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Baroclinic Zone

March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

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2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

No kidding!  It’s definitely overdone, but the Euro has snow depths pushing 40” for a lot of SNE by midweek next week!

If it wasn't for the Equinox sun ...I'd be inclined to believe we could pull that off in this pattern... 

But, as it were...heh... And, MOS may be tinted by climo, sure, but even if we trim 5 for pattern recognition combined with the oft' overused and abused snow pack argument... we're still talking 40 F with sun chances... and there no way we sustain the pack we have.  It's a matter of 'how much' losses. 

 

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57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If it wasn't for the Equinox sun ...I'd be inclined to believe we could pull that off in this pattern... 

But, as it were...heh... And, MOS may be tinted by climo, sure, but even if we trim 5 for pattern recognition combined with the oft' overused and abused snow pack argument... we're still talking 40 F with sun chances... and there no way we sustain the pack we have.  It's a matter of 'how much' losses. 

 

don't be a Debbie downer :( 

 

It's funny how the sensible weather hasn't been that cold the past few weeks, but we've managed to pull off snowstorms.  Storms so big they're making their own cold I guess. 

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3 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

No kidding!  It’s definitely overdone, but the Euro has snow depths pushing 40” for a lot of SNE by midweek next week!

That total includes the end result of "some" system from next week?

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57 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

don't be a Debbie downer :( 

 

It's funny how the sensible weather hasn't been that cold the past few weeks, but we've managed to pull off snowstorms.  Storms so big they're making their own cold I guess. 

We did have a wild wet coastal though ...the first in the series.  

I mentioned this along the way days ago but it was easily unread along the din of dismay leading these probabilities ...that there have been three in this -NAO west-based (albeit high enough in latitude so as not to be a suppressive influence which is key ;) ), where each storm got progressively colder... culminating in what has evolved here in the interior, today, to be a powder event. 

It's cold...27 here with chalks dust curling off of eaves while metallic gray daylight is cast beneath trees that whir their white noise of resentment ... Contrasting?  That first gig back on March 1 was cat paw golf ball rain drops at 39 F and it never shat a flake until the storm was long gone and some after thought rad blip, representing a struggling virga shrouded CU amid at best tepid backside CAA had to be symbolic of a whole ordeal that wouldn't have snowed if you f'n paid it to.  Summing what the collective users of this particular weather-related social media gave,  probably added up to a total of six months of human life to that question regarding dynamics meets with marginal set up for folks E of the Berks. And once we were all settled and secure upon the notion of "your tellin' me there's a chance"  ... the rest was history.

I really think of all these three as part of the same "planetary event" ... this being the final chapter. 

That thing next week is borne of similarities, perhaps we could add it to this.  The reason why I wonder? The NAO is here to stay ... March spring enthusiasts are not happy and probably won't be until further notice.  The only way to countermand what is going on is to really jolt the Pacific, and I don't see much going on out there capable of doing what it would take to really reset the mass-field dial for what it has wended its way into - this.  The MJO hit the boundary of Phase 3 and 4 and dies to the incoherent graveyard of undefined.  That behavior is basically because the WPO and EPO are both modestly going negative probably until the end of the month.  That in total is a destructive wave interference... and the MJO wave its self was not strong enough to usurp matters.. So what we are left with (probably) is enough of a AA phased N. Pacific to send oscillatory late season cooling into the Canadian shield... all the while, the vestigial NAO pulses negative about every 4 to 5 days ... evidence by operational runs sort of popping off new ridges in the lower D. Straight region along said time intervals..  That's the general theme... Should provide two realities ... one, continued cool or opportunities to at minimum retard spring's advance;  two, make my original ideas of an early spring appear utterly asinine.  As long as those two are achieved, God is happy.

Ah..hell..  Can't say I'm not enjoying it.  Truth be told... Though I am one of those March spring enthusiasts, I am however willing to take exception when big events are in play.  Well.. 

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We did have a wild wet coastal though ...the first in the series.  

I mentioned this along the way days ago but it was easily unread along the din of dismay leading these probabilities ...that there have been three in this -NAO west-based (albeit high enough in latitude so as not to be a suppressive influence which is key ;) ), where each storm got progressively colder... culminating in what has evolved here in the interior, today, to be a powder event. 

It's cold...27 here with chalks dust curling off of eaves while metallic gray daylight is cast beneath trees that whir in white noise ... Contrasting?  That first gig back on March 1 was cat paw golf ball rain drops at 39 F and it never shat a flake until the storm was long gone and some after thought rad blip, representing a struggling virga shrouded CU amid at best tepid backside CAA had to be symbolic of a whole ordeal that wouldn't have snowed if you f'n paid it to.  Summing what the collective users of this particular weather-related social media gave,  probably added up to a total of six months of human life to that question regarding dynamics meets with marginal set up for folks E of the Berks. And once we were all settled and secure upon the notion of "your tellin' me there's a chance"  ... the rest was history.

I really think of all these three as part of the same "planetary event" ... this being the final chapter. 

That thing next week is borne of similarities, perhaps we could add it to this.  The reason why I wonder? The NAO is here to stay ... March spring enthusiasts are not happy and probably won't be until further notice.  The only way to countermand what is going on is to really jolt the Pacific, and I don't see much going on out there capable of doing what it would take to really reset the mass-field dial for what it has wended its way into - this.  The MJO hit the boundary of Phase 3 and 4 and dies to the incoherent graveyard of undefined.  That behavior is basically because the WPO and EPO are both modestly going negative probably until the end of the month.  That in total is a destructive wave interference... and the MJO wave its self was not strong enough to usurp matters.. So what we are left with (probably) is enough of a AA phased N. Pacific to send oscillatory late season cooling into the Canadian shield... all the while, the vestigial NAO pulses negative about every 4 to 5 days ... evidence by operational runs sort of popping off new ridges in the lower D. Straight region along said time intervals..  That's the general theme... Should provide two realities ... one, continued cool or opportunities to at minimum retard spring's advance;  two, make my original ideas of an early spring appear utterly asinine.  As long as those two are achieved, God is happy.

Ah..hell..  Can't say I'm not enjoying it.  Truth be told... Though I am one of those March spring enthusiasts, I am however willing to take exception when big events are in play.  Well.. 

You'll be playing ultimate Frisbee in the quad while tanning your nape very soon!

Enjoying this one while it lasts...if this is it, so be it.  I'm content.  If more is delivered, gravy.......

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2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I think that was 0z

12z out to 174 on US. Looks like it will go OTS. 

Correct suppressed and OTS.

With GEM changing to rain nice spread.

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully eps still has it. I know one thing. It won’t be suppressed in late Morch. It comes north. But will it be all snow is the question 

With that 50/50 low where it is it definitely can be suppressed 

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully eps still has it. I know one thing. It won’t be suppressed in late Morch. It comes north. But will it be all snow is the question 

Suppression can happen in Morch.  Confluence from the 50/50 could make this a DC deal. 

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3 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Maybe we should forego the "Morch" theme this year, Kevin. Can't think of a single syllable version for the month when its cold and snowy, though.

The NAO is heading into deeper negativity on the 19th, so there's that. 

The NAM schooled the GFS on this one, even if it got carried away a bit in SE MA.

 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess if you call 20-30% chances real good....???

wouldn’t you consider those a good signal at a week lead time? It will also be the third week in March so anything 3+ would be pretty good that late in the season. 

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Sure...I’d call it decent chance (not real good like what was stated), I wouldn’t be getting my hopes up..impressive pattern no doubt, but it’s fantasy land right now.

Let’s see what things look like come Friday? 

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