Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: It is worth mentioning, and has been brought up on the MAP discussion, that the North Pac jet has been in a prolonged retracted phase (higher than normal model uncertainty). The jet isn't expected to extend any time soon either. "MAP" discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 It'll come back they say. Just wait. Its still not that big of a change at a Day 4 prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Not what I wanted to see, but not really concerned yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: CAR zones get 6-12" from the Northern stream s/w that rolls thru on thurs................ ^^^ Congrats TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: "MAP" discussion? I believe it started as a literal map discussion at Albany, and has now migrated to email where red taggers weenie out. Sometimes the discussions go over my head, and sometimes it's just gee whiz information, but more often than not it's just discussing evolving US weather and extreme world events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: ^^^ Congrats TAN SE MA, Snow capitol of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 LOL... Lots of moving parts... If the n-stream avoids insertion, yet the NAO is handled wrongly and this thing stalls because of the block, you almost achieve the same dire complexion of events with tides due to duration .. so ...it's probably important to get that part of this equation nailed down either way. I don't f around flooding - that's the big one in terms of threat assessing. As far as p-type, everyone wants to hear inches... and these marginal systems.. I got go with climo on +1 C at mid range and figure that ends up -.5 C with said hammer stuff from last night. But if more n-stream sneakily gets in there... you're talking a dynamical juggernaut re-invented in future runs... Yet, the third scenario, the NAO is poorly handled, and regardless ...this gets the squish and suppress too far S... the present GFS rendition. Ever since the GFS saw that potential on the 18z yesterday it's like been deliberately going out of its way to figure out how not to have to do that - haha. My hunch is the Euro hold serve here in a couple hours. And then, both the mood aura in here brightens with the surge of new found hope ... or, if it come in (off chance at 4.5 days from 00z last night!) with some disorganized suppression as well, than we concede to a red herring NAO delusion - not like we haven't had to deal with those in recent years, huh. I don't think that will happen... but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 It also appears that Stony Brook has some sort of Euro data outage, no sensitivity since 2/21 and no fuzzy clustering because of that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: I just gave it a once over with the overnight NCEP guidance. A good deal of the variance is explained by higher pressures just south of SNE (so a bad solution for winter weenies). This doesn't mean it is more likely, it just means that this is where a lot of ensemble uncertainty lies, but we also want to see the opposite height pattern occur that forces those higher pressures. That upper level pattern doesn't develop for at least another 24 hours, and as you might expect: stronger ridging through NE Canada, and a weaker wave lead to higher pressures south of SNE. It almost looks as if the sensitivity is suggesting we want to the parent wave to really dig, pump heights up ahead of it, which would counter balance the NAO and lead to a closer approach. Thanks for this. Would explain why I liked the GFS initially. The lead s/w has always been too far north for my liking. Things just never came together tough on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: LOL... Lots of moving parts... If the n-stream avoids insertion, yet the NAO is handled wrongly and this thing stalls because of the block, you almost achieve the same dire complexion of events with tides due to duration .. so ...it's probably important to get that part of this equation nailed down either way. I don't f around flooding - that's the big one in terms of threat assessing. As far as p-type, everyone wants to hear inches... and these marginal systems.. I got go with climo on +1 C at mid range and figure that ends up -.5 C with said hammer stuff from last night. But if more n-stream sneakily gets in there... you're talking a dynamical juggernaut re-invented in future runs... Yet, the third scenario, the NAO is poorly handled, and regardless ...this gets the squish and suppress too far S... the present GFS rendition. Ever since the GFS saw that potential on the 18z yesterday it's like been deliberately going out of its way to figure out how not to have to do that - haha. My hunch is the Euro hold serve here in a couple hours. And then, both the mood aura in here brightens with the surge of new found hope ... or, if it come in (off chance at 4.5 days from 00z last night!) with some disorganized suppression as well, than we concede to a red herring NAO delusion - not like we haven't had to deal with those in recent years, huh. I don't think that will happen... but we'll see. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Soon someone will save Rays day and say the GEFS look sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 My feeling is once this is gone, it’s gone. It’s not coming back in the final 36 hours like other systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 either rain or it gets shunted to the south.....great options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Soon someone will save Rays day and say the GEFS look sweet Progressive would be a limit factor which seems to be creeping in on most Ens data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Progressive would be a limit factor which seems to be creeping in on most Ens data Past 2 winter themes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 The mood swings in here are unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Past 2 winter themes. the block is so far west we end up with a progressive look, also this is where a -pna hurts ya if you are looking for a stacked 5H capture crawl. Initial modeling had that loop around the 5H, perhaps it returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Ukie is less phased too and south. Definitely a theme on the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Uncle's the same, not a great look this suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Looks like a productive day at work today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Should have stuck with the shunt idea perhaps. Got caught up in all the hoopla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Should have stuck with the shunt idea perhaps. Got caught up in all the hoopla Still time to change your mind.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 There he is, the human NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Should have stuck with the shunt idea perhaps. Got caught up in all the hoopla Declaring defeat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: There he is, the human NAM. Just wait 6 hours for a new solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I''m still on the garbage rain train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There he is, the human NAM. I just want him to go back all-in on the shunt idea and then be forced to try and sell it when the guidance comes back north/phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still time to change your mind.... Just looked back at the 92 and 97 systems evolution, surprisingly similar to this however the ULLS evolved NE while this one evolves SE taking all the energy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I just want him to go back all-in on the shunt idea and then be forced to try and sell it when the guidance comes back north/phased. You can see how he's trying to practice reverse psychology on the models. When the 00z suite ticks north again, this will all have been part of his plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Declaring defeat? Yeah we lost. - NAO’ s blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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