JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Cuts off everything lol And yet, still piss warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Yeah... that run is going to disappoint a lot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: And yet, still piss warm Thermals aside, the dynamics aren't there for us either. Good luck cooling the column with meh omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Cuts off everything lol Gotta start somewhere. Cutting off the ML warmth is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... that run is going to disappoint a lot of people So wont the 12z GGEM, Its worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Thermals aside, the dynamics aren't there for us either. Good luck cooling the column with meh omega. omehga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: So wont the 12z GGEM, Its worse. Congrats NJ on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 shunted and progressive are we approaching "next"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Congrats NJ on the GGEM. congrats on the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, qg_omega said: congrats on the rain? High terrain would prob cool enough for snow there on that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 What's preventing this from coming N? Sloppy/non-phase? Confluence? I'm guessing both are highly correctable on a D4 GFS depiction. Slow the bridge jumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Congrats NJ on the GGEM. I joked the other day about it being BWI, Maybe just another couple runs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 "don't worry the storm will make its own cold air" The country is a coast to coast furnace or maritime air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Matches the timing I had in that storm. I was in high school and remember it absolutely pouring outside the first period...during 2md period around 10am I remember all of the sudden looking outside where not 5 minutes earlier it was pouring to see massive parachutes falling with almost zero vis. Accumulated instantly. I had to change buildings for my next class between 2nd and 3rd period. I was happy I had the excuse to go outside. We had already accumulated a greasy 1-2" of slush by the time I went out there. During dismissal a few hours later, we had a vivid flash of lighting and loud thunder. Ditto. I don't have the steel trap memory of others on the board, but I do remember pouring rain in the morning followed by a flip to heavy snow and an early release when everyone realized the mistake of sending kids to school in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 The problem is the lack of a clean phase in time for anyone to get anything more than pedestrian. That said, save a horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: "don't worry the storm will make its own cold air" The country is a coast to coast furnace or maritime air. the block simply trapped a crappy airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: shunted and progressive are we approaching "next"? Pfttt. 10-20" coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: omehga? Damn, beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: What's preventing this from coming N? Sloppy/non-phase? Confluence? I'm guessing both are highly correctable on a D4 GFS depiction. Slow the bridge jumping. Yeah it's not getting a nice phase with plains s/w. Block is a little stronger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: shunted and progressive are we approaching "next"? I would think these would give you some comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I would think these would give you some comfort. Any nuggets to offer on the ensemble sensitivity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 It is worth mentioning, and has been brought up on the MAP discussion, that the North Pac jet has been in a prolonged retracted phase (higher than normal model uncertainty). The jet isn't expected to extend any time soon either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I would think these would give you some comfort. My post was in jest, lol yes I have seen that get more and more anomalous every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I would think these would give you some comfort. CAR zones get 6-12" from the Northern stream s/w that rolls thru on thurs................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: shunted and progressive are we approaching "next"? Don’t forget your guarantee.. 100% chance of good snows in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don’t forget your guarantee.. 100% chance of good snows in SNE No don't twist now, you asked what are the chances of NO snow in SNE , I said 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Any nuggets to offer on the ensemble sensitivity? I just gave it a once over with the overnight NCEP guidance. A good deal of the variance is explained by higher pressures just south of SNE (so a bad solution for winter weenies). This doesn't mean it is more likely, it just means that this is where a lot of ensemble uncertainty lies, but we also want to see the opposite height pattern occur that forces those higher pressures. That upper level pattern doesn't develop for at least another 24 hours, and as you might expect: stronger ridging through NE Canada, and a weaker wave lead to higher pressures south of SNE. It almost looks as if the sensitivity is suggesting we want to the parent wave to really dig, pump heights up ahead of it, which would counter balance the NAO and lead to a closer approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 When is the SW fully sampled, tmw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: When is the SW fully sampled, tmw? Looks like about the timing, 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: My post was in jest, lol yes I have seen that get more and more anomalous every run I figured you wouldn't have missed those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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