March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

[Go Kart Mozart]

This is a bad run of the GFS?  What am I missing here?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

eps members all over the place, tons of spread. They have, however, sagged south with better goods. It’s no longer just a CNE/NNE crushing.....more distribution but also many weak events too.

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This is a bad run of the GFS?  What am I missing here?

Too many people looking at clown maps these days. GFS is woefully bad in the lowest levels but we can toss it...huge T/TD spreads. 

[Bostonseminole]

We are already in the game....I don't care what the minimum central pressure is.

Ok good to know


.

[Modfan]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The cips analogs are pretty fun. 4/1/97, 3/5/01, 3/7/13 are all in there, lol. 

Anyways, I wouldn't worry so much about the oscillations. We saw an even further south run in the previous 00z run before it wildly swung back north at 12z. The synoptic setup is largely the same. Down here, we prob want it a little south anyway...beware the surge north late in the game. 

I remember 4/1/97 sitting at Lungren Honda in Auburn Ma buying my first car and its heavy rain at 9am and heavy snow by 10am with 2-3" on the ground.  Couldnt believe i had to make the Rt 20 drive in my new car in all this snow.  Great storm!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Did guidance show 4/97 or was it marginal and dynamic cooling took over.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Did guidance show 4/97 or was it marginal and dynamic cooling took over.

Guidance showed potential but the snow portion was expected to be maxed further south,   The Jack was pike BOS to ORH to ne MA.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Did guidance show 4/97 or was it marginal and dynamic cooling took over.

Guidance had it...forecast was even for 6-12" pretty close into Boston the night before. The duration and intensity was underestimated though, which also led to an earlier flip than originally forecast. 

Typically the firehose storms have tended to be underforecast for amounts in my experience. Doesn't mean this one will too...we still need to actually get into the max zone of easterly flow...but it is something to keep in mind. 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, Modfan said:

I remember 4/1/97 sitting at Lungren Honda in Auburn Ma buying my first car and its heavy rain at 9am and heavy snow by 10am with 2-3" on the ground.  Couldnt believe i had to make the Rt 20 drive in my new car in all this snow.  Great storm!

Matches the timing I had in that storm. I was in high school and remember it absolutely pouring outside the first period...during 2md period around 10am I remember all of the sudden looking outside where not 5 minutes earlier it was pouring to see massive parachutes falling with almost zero vis. Accumulated instantly. I had to change buildings for my next class between 2nd and 3rd period. I was happy I had the excuse to go outside. We had already accumulated a greasy 1-2" of slush by the time I went out there. During dismissal a few hours later, we had a vivid flash of lighting and loud thunder. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

nam was deff much colder than gfs at 850 over NNE, i would think that should yield a better result by cooling the column quicker as the energy transfers.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That is a sick experience as a young weenie William. This was you at noon:

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not a good set of overnight runs 

No complaint here with that Euro run

[dryslot]

8 hours ago, wxsniss said:

SW shortwave lags, later northern stream interaction, more time for blocking to retrograde, and system exits the coast further south on 0z Gfs

Timing of the shortwave ejecting / interaction with northern stream is consistently one of the more critical variables

Treating this run like just another ensemble member this far out, and I do think this is still a realistic but less likely outcome

 

Not really that hard to grasp, You can just sit and compare H5 maps of the current and previous run and get a pretty good idea where its going to go by looking at 3 features.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No complaint here with that Euro run

 I liked the cooler look. qpf will follow. 

[CoastalWx]

Mine isn't much different. Last period which was a blur as we were pelting PLSN. We probably had 2" of rain prior...lol. What a QPF bomb. All snow as I headed past Raynham on rt 24 and there were trees coming down in Hyde Park where I was staying to help out my grandmother shovel. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 I liked the cooler look. qpf will follow. 

Another day another solution, interesting to me is the increased speed of evolution, what was a 2-3 day onslaught has trended pretty quickly to a 18-24 hr period. The big ones slow, capture and stall. All modeling last night moved it out quicker, maybe a trend but we are inside the 96 hr time frame today so we will see starting at 12Z wassup

[Chrisrotary12]

After reading through pages 4-9 in here, the overnight model runs were exactly what the weenies needed.  A quick bringing back to earth.

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No complaint here with that Euro run

3-6" call it.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

After reading through pages 4-9 in here, the overnight model runs were exactly what the weenies needed.  A quick bringing back to earth.

Hey whats up, would be nice if you shared your expertise  on this. Peanut gallery is easy we all can do that even without a degree

[Baroclinic Zone]

Let's just say the overnight runs were uninspiring compared to what some of the solutions have been showing.  The GFS still blows on thermals, the CMC looks ok, but a bit warm and the Euro seems to have come off it's coked up rager from the last couple days.

[Chrisrotary12]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hey whats up, would be nice if you shared your expertise  on this. Peanut gallery is easy we all can do that even without a degree

Sure.  There's chance of a storm late Thursday night into Friday.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

Now that I've surpassed climo, pennies and nickles mean little.  I'm looking for the dimes and quarters to pile up. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Sure.  There's chance of a storm late Thursday night into Friday.  

thanks 

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No complaint here with that Euro run

I meant the EPS mainly 

[Bostonseminole]

12Z hopefully will trend better, I'm not inspired by what I'm seeing, I mean I'll take 6-12 but with how lame this winter has been, hoping it goes out with a bang!

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I meant the EPS mainly 

Its very similar to the op?

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Too many people looking at clown maps these days. GFS is woefully bad in the lowest levels but we can toss it...huge T/TD spreads. 

I may be stating the Meteorological obvious here ... but, it seems that may be the entire cause for it's bullishly warm bias in the lowest critical thickness ...which is probably just BL for all intents and purposes.  Basically, someone left the hygroscopic physics modules out of the algorithm when they pulled all the pieces together off the drafting lab ...

Kidding of course, but it really seems its inability to saturate causing it to miss a ton of thermal sink that it needs to have in order to properly process what is going on in a CCB/comma head.  It's literally like it is missing the hygroscopics entirely - fascinating.  

Anyway, folks - ... the appreciable difference between the 'panache' of the 18z run and the overnight versions, is that the 18z run yesterday had a critical interval ( I think it was 48 hours.. actually 74 to 84) where it plunked in a dose of n-stream phasing as this system was entering the western OV... That then trundled on to deepening the entire vertical structure of the cyclone substantially.  I'm actually a little surprised no on picked up on that.. ?  

The 00z/06z version are still deep, but not in the 522 dm range like the predecessor run.  Which, the GGEM has been fairly consistent in doing, by the way... although it too backed off a little on that at 00z (perhaps half..).  

I think that is a critical piece to this eventual puzzle. Otherwise, we care cobbling together a different sort of affair.  Either solution is probably a tide/CF thread given the lunar stuff, but, obviously a deeper system is slower and therefore .. amply more impacting in that regard.  That is also going to be true in the QPF of course, but also...ptype. That gulp in of n-mechanics would feed back in taking some sounding points critically over the edge or not. 

The Euro's been consistent.. it's hard to tell given the grainy freebie charts what's going on with stream interactions and so forth at that discrete of a level... but, just the complexion of what is there, it looks like it's held reasonable serve with starting out too warm everywhere for snow at 96 hours, and then sending the entire region through a dynamical juggernaut that [probably] has some heavy snows in the mid/latter half of the system.

One thing that I am also noticing about the entire technology ambit is that the handling of this thing's entire translation has sped up (a little) in this run. That may come down to correctly modulating how the retrograding NAO truly effects the circulation medium everywhere from Ohio to SE of NS for that matter... The previous cycle allowed for perhaps a 12 hour slower total displacement... That's a significant amount of time being lost on this 00z run for direct impact within the cyclone's envelope of course... 

Just some office chair QBing this morning.  That, and mm, my personal opinion is that the overnight runs were impressive.  I think there may be a tendency to always need more ...to extend the high/drug's impact that much more fevered in pitch.  How do you top the 18z run's blend with the 12z Euro's ? ... that's going to be tough.. and, logically it may just simply be that the next run was probability favored for less because we were getting to a point where there is only one way to go... I'm sure there is some storm in the last ... 1,000,000 yrs of eastern North America's history that is the king snow god of all storms... surpassing even 1888...etc...but, the return rate on that is so low that it may not ever return for one, but also prooobably isn't this thing. Not criticizing here, it's just that this 00z run was better than the previous if one is willing to look farther back than the apex thriller state of aura in here ...circa 6pm last evening.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its very similar to the op?

I think we just need to make sure it stops trending south. Much farther and we’re out of the good dynamics and with marginal cold that won’t cut it for coasts or valleys. 

The changes in SE Canada are key to watch the next 2 days 

[TalcottWx]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 There is so much knee-jerking  to each model run in this thread right now it’s crazy. 

It's pathetic. From people who have been in here for a decade. 

[WinterWolf]

Same old story as with any system...One or two runs go wild and show a Monster, and many go bazerk with what it might be..jackpot zones are called five days out lol and so on and so on.  

 

Then the models go through their same old thing where they weaken the output to nothing all that great, and it brings many back down to earth and then the process repeats again as the models sample the energy and the real story begins to emerge.  

 

a good possibility this isn't the blockbuster some were thinking....that too is in the realm of possible solutions.   Steady as she goes...Patience GH's right Gynx.