Hazey Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 37 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: 12Z hopefully will trend better, I'm not inspired by what I'm seeing, I mean I'll take 6-12 but with how lame this winter has been, hoping it goes out with a bang! LOL...oh my... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 19 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: It's pathetic. From people who have been in here for a decade. it's disgusting, they should be banned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: it's disgusting, they should be banned Lets ban everyone that can’t conform to strict guidelines...a virtual Guantanamo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 NAM coming off the southern tip of the Delmarva at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Another day another solution, interesting to me is the increased speed of evolution, what was a 2-3 day onslaught has trended pretty quickly to a 18-24 hr period. The big ones slow, capture and stall. All modeling last night moved it out quicker, maybe a trend but we are inside the 96 hr time frame today so we will see starting at 12Z wassup Yea. It still could be a 36hr storm just that 24hrs of it is liquid lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: The Euro's been consistent.. it's hard to tell given the grainy freebie charts what's going on with stream interactions and so forth at that discrete of a level... My man...https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/relative-vorticity-500mb/20180226-1500z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 The NAM has surface temps in the 50s in the lower valley Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 There's a small low that's ejected through the Lakes into NNE that stalls in N. Maine ..probably instructed to do so by the impinging retrograde -NAO blocking at that time... However, that feature is helping to warm the region beneath it and is also blocking llv cold from working more readily in via the +PP that's situated over Ontario. Not sure if that is correct-able or not but... or if the other models are doing something similar. Just something I noticed about the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 20 hours ago, dryslot said: Also noticed up here any ways as some pre with a weak s/w in the northern stream that moves thru here ahead of that main system, Euro has had that a few runs now. 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's a small low that's ejected through the Lakes into NNE that stalls in N. Maine ..probably instructed to do so by the impinging retrograde -NAO blocking at that time... However, that feature is helping to warm the region beneath it and is also blocking llv cold from working more readily in via the +PP that's situated over Ontario. Not sure if that is correct-able or not but... or if the other models are doing something similar. Just something I noticed about the NAM Noted yesterday, Its been on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 A little OT, but it appears that the cold is stuck on the other side of the world (EU) right now. Just got a message from my cousin in England saying that they are prepping for a snowy week in London...just checked and it looks pretty chilly (by London standards) this week. We only need "cold enough" to get snow in New England in March though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 21 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The NAM has surface temps in the 50s in the lower valley Thursday night. Nam is colder this run compared to less run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam is colder this run compared to less run Considering I was talking about the end of the run, that is an odd assertion. But if we go back to hour 78 vs 84, it is a false assertion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: Ok good to know . Yea, that wasn't a very good post on my part. While I don't think the central pressure needs to below 970mb for a sne blitz, deeper solutions are needed in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 A more compressed look overhead early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that wasn't a very good post on my part. While I don't think the central pressure needs to below 970mb for a sne blitz, deeper solutions are needed in general. I'd only argue that the deeper solutions are needed for the largest scale solutions. We are dealing with a marginal atmosphere to begin with so we will be relying on dynamic cooling to provide the cold source. And obviously the further north you are the better off you are when it comes to achieving this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Less phasing so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Less phasing so far Yup. what we need to allow colder air to drain down. If it closes off over CHI all the cold is cutoff. Clearly seen on heights map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Less phasing so far Yeah...gonna need a miracle to get it up here this run. That Wed night system in NNE looks a little stronger so maybe itcan pull down a little more cold air to work with for SNE/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 41 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The NAM has surface temps in the 50s in the lower valley Thursday night. I remember on March 30, 1997, it was in the low to mid 50s still at sunset. I was thinking how weird that was for an impending snowstorm the next day. The key is obviously getting an upper level system that is at least somewhat analogous. Weak dynamics won't get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 The secondary is halfway to Bermuda...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 and its a shunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: The secondary is halfway to Bermuda...lol Not bad, cuts off the ML warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: The secondary is halfway to Bermuda...lol And the rest of the precip is going with it....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Good bye and good luck on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Yeah this run of the GFS ain't gonna get it done. Need a better phased system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Right where we want it...before the last minute ticks north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Not bad, cuts off the ML warming. Cuts off everything lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Not a great start, but it's just the GFS. Even if the entire 12z suite underwhelms there's still a lot of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Right where we want it...before the last minute ticks north. I'll admit I was slightly worried a couple days ago when the GFS was pretty far north...now it feels more classic. GFS less phased and southeast is the comfort zone 4 days before a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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