ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The thing with the EURO is it continues to follow the southern/eastern convection. It creates this duel low that never consolidates until its too far SE but that convective low stays with it the whole time as the "stronger" low. If everything were to bomb out where it looks like it could or should (the X) then it would be able to wrap the firehose moisture conveyor belt more efficiently into SNE. Euro wasn't the only model doing this either. There's a chance we see a good bump if we can get rid of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro wasn't the only model doing this either. There's a chance we see a good bump if we can get rid of that. hydro vs non again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The thing with the EURO is it continues to follow the southern/eastern convection. It creates this duel low that never consolidates until its too far SE but that convective low stays with it the whole time as the "stronger" low. If everything were to bomb out where it looks like it could or should (the X) then it would be able to wrap the firehose moisture conveyor belt more efficiently into SNE. Good post dude. Something is all fooked up with that Euro run. It’s hard to toss it so close in, but as they explained earlier.. you really have to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The thing with the EURO is it continues to follow the southern/eastern convection. It creates this duel low that never consolidates until its too far SE but that convective low stays with it the whole time as the "stronger" low. If everything were to bomb out where it looks like it could or should (the X) then it would be able to wrap the firehose moisture conveyor belt more efficiently into SNE. It's a tough call. Here's 925... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro wasn't the only model doing this either. There's a chance we see a good bump if we can get rid of that. 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Good post dude. Something is all fooked up with that Euro run. It’s hard to toss it so close in, but as they explained earlier.. you really have to The EPS individual members have a good deal that look much more like say the NAM with 2" QPF all over SNE.... but there's also a surprising amount (maybe a quarter?) that really have like under a third of an inch north of the Pike. Like so low that you'd have to toss those considering the other models. There is a very strong internal struggle going on within the EPS that is odd for that product at this close range. Certainly not clearing anything up. I'm fascinated by this. How close can we get to go-time without a real clear picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: hydro vs non again? Yeah the non -hydros def seem to be a little more wrapped...though even the RGEM was being kind of ugly with a secondary eastward center. The NAM was being the most consolidated...and not surprisingly, it has the firehose further north and lasting longer. Even tries a secondary push of moisture around 09-12z for eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Let’s see if we can slay the elephant today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Pretty surprised to wake up and see the euro as mostly a non event. Would be funny if after all this the euro is right and most of the snow falls in SE Mass. the cutback across the board is pretty concerning though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 It might have to do with our southern vortmax not even being consolidated anymore. There is this lead energy that never really gets captured and it ends up rotating around the ull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The euro huggers saying the euro has been steadfast is sorta too much I mean c'mon Last nite was pitiful even in Catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Seems like we’ve been taking one step forward and two steps back for days with this storm. Finally see a positive trend late yesterday with the snow... now suddenly we are losing precip all together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It might have to muchith our southern vortmax no at even being consolidated anymore. There is this lead energy that never really gets captured and it ends up rotating around the ull. Yes there is about 15 ways this doesnt snow Much and 1 where it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The 0z ggem probably illustrates it the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: The 0z ggem probably illustrates it the best And at the surface you get this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The euro huggers saying the euro has been steadfast is sorta too much I mean c'mon Last nite was pitiful even in Catskills Theres so much juice, I’m going with guidance that handles convection better. Remember Jan 4,euro was chasing convection blobs...its last run before go time was still too SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Worth looking back at 4/97 H5 charts... maybe I'm giving this too much weight, but it probably helped that the bulk of vorticity circled around to the north of the ULLThat system had multiple low centers too, but they were developing even northeast of the main low, prolonging the CCB into SNEIn tomorrow's case, bulk of vorticity is southeast of the ULL as depicted on current guidance... the entire thing gets tugged out faster. 24-30 hours is still time for this to improve. First out of the gate 12z Nam will be telling as it's the most aggressive at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Worth looking back at 4/97 H5 charts... maybe I'm giving this too much weight, but it probably helped that the bulk of vorticity circled around to the north of the ULL That system had multiple low centers too, but they were developing even northeast of the main low, prolonging the CCB into SNE In tomorrow's case, bulk of vorticity is southeast of the ULL as depicted on current guidance... the entire thing gets tugged out faster. 24-30 hours is still time for this to improve. First out of the gate 12z Nam will be telling as it's the most aggressive at the moment. Shes slipping Icon went se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 20 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The 0z ggem probably illustrates it the best Good analysis. Looks like that may be the key with that energy getting too far out then captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6z GFS was actually more amped than 0z. Better phasing all around, and less confluence to the northeast. I may be alone on this, but I want the nuke, whether it means mostly rain or not... Good things can happen on the side of cold if we have <970 low right off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 last 10 runs of ze german have been fairly consistent. Kinda impressed if you compare it to last 10 runs of its competitors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Some decent mini melts last night. Would read again. I'm still trying to figure out which is the model of choice because all have been tossed at some point, Looks like the Nam has the hot hand until 12z anyways.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Good analysis. It looks like that may be the key wit h that energy getting too far out then captured. Its gotta be soooo close wether that Is enough energy That scoots East that it screws the pooch or wether its noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Its gotta be soooo close wether that Is enough energy That scoots East that it screws the pooch or wether its noise Yeah, maybe a bit of separation would be beneficial. Let the best dynamics go to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 That nc forecaster dude who is leaving@noon should prepare to stop at like 1:10 and turn around if euro holds court Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 39 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Seems like we’ve been taking one step forward and two steps back for days with this storm. Finally see a positive trend late yesterday with the snow... now suddenly we are losing precip all together Will not matter to me at this point as it is still looking a mostly rain event, with a possible attempt at a 1/2" of accumulating snow after hours of rain. I've had my share of rain this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That nc forecaster dude who is leaving@noon should prepare to stop at like 1:10 and turn around if euro holds court He is into the coastal wind/surge scene...which on the euro is still ridiculous. Might just want to go more toward PYM if it's a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That nc forecaster dude who is leaving@noon should prepare to stop at like 1:10 and turn around if euro holds court lol. Is that guy seriously coming this way to chase this "beast"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This is about exactly how my map would look. From our friend e weather on Twitter , down in Haddam. Of all the maps I’ve seen, this is closest to what I think happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Also i got a room in beckett on standby (well over 1k) for cheapski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is about exactly how my map would look. From our friend e weather on Twitter , down in Haddam. Of all the maps I’ve seen, this is closest to what I think happens Weird ranges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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