ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Could you post a quick annotation illustrating what exactly a full capture looks like? This is Dec '92 animation...note how the surface low is basically "stuck" to the ULL...and even late in the game when another one tries to form east, it gets "captured" again and gets sucked back into the ULL. That's what captured is...you have the sfc low almost totally stacked intot he upper low and when that occurs, you tend to get an extra stall in the movement....even on a more progressive system (Dec '92 clarly was not progressive at all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Whats ukie show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Currently planning to leave SE NC by noon tomorrow...heading for Scituate Light...for coverage of the coastal flooding. From there, I hope/anticipate to be documenting intense snowfall rates for Boston that evening (will adjust, if necessary). At the current time, I'd place the probability of blizzard conditions verifying (3 consecutive hours of blizzard criteria) at KBOS at less than 50%, due mainly to the density of the dendrites at peak conditions. It's the prospective devastating surge/tides, and their effects on the EMA coastline, that is enticing me to drive > 900 sm to document this event/storm...at greater than $1500 expense. Simply share this as an example of my confidence in the monumental impacts that may occur with a 12z EURO/00z NAM blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Whats ukie show cmc is way se of its previous runs. oh my bad, thought i saw you asking cmc too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Damn missed a thriller of a 0z NAM run and related disco... Quickly browsed through. I like your first call map Ray. For those of you not familiar, check out the maps for 3/31-4/1/97: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/index.html You don't need CIPS to see the remarkable similarities. One important difference is our current system exits southeast a little faster... but that's as currently depicted. We almost invariably get last minute north ticks with these anomalously dynamic systems. I also think this could stall a little longer depending on how multiple low configuration plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: cmc is way se of its previous runs. Looks like the cut off is near PSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Gfs says lets do this again in. 8 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is Dec '92 animation...note how the surface low is basically "stuck" to the ULL...and even late in the game when another one tries to form east, it gets "captured" again and gets sucked back into the ULL. That's what captured is...you have the sfc low almost totally stacked intot he upper low and when that occurs, you tend to get an extra stall in the movement....even on a more progressive system (Dec '92 clarly was not progressive at all) Is the reverse correct as well, that surface lows also have a tugging or stalling effect on ULL movement? That seems to be happening in the Dec 92 example. And in the current case, the ULL trajectory is southeast but then it seems to stall during the capture, then continues southeast. (That also may be part of the difference from 4/97... the ULL then had more of an easterly trajectory vs. southeast now.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Gfs says lets do this again in. 8 days lol Long duration snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I’m up for the Euro.....screw it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Is the reverse correct as well, that surface lows also have a tugging or stalling effect on ULL movement? That seems to be happening in the Dec 92 example. And in the current case, the ULL trajectory is southeast but then it seems to stall during the capture, then continues southeast. (That also may be part of the difference from 4/97... the ULL then had more of an easterly trajectory vs. southeast now.) I would def like to see the ULL blow up a little on the northern side to prolong the precip. You're right about drifting more SE vs 97 and that could be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I would def like to see the ULL blow up a little on the northern side to prolong the precip. You're right about drifting more SE vs 97 and that could be important. Well Have any of the biggies had a ull moving Se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Man, just looked at the NAM clown...that is Dec 1992 replica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well Have any of the biggies had a ull moving Se Mar 2013 did. Though that didn't have to fight through as much rain and mildness. But if you recall, that epic firehose in eastern MA slowly sunk south. 1992 drifted SE too but it had a nice long stall before it did...longer than this one will have. Hard to pin down the stall aspect yet...it is somewhat dependent too on how the vort maxes are rotating into the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well Have any of the biggies had a ull moving Se Its means 2' jacks instead of 3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Anyways. Long day tomorrow for me personally, so not staying up for euro. Hopefully it comes up spades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Mar 2013 did. Though that didn't have to fight through as much rain and mildness. But if you recall, that epic firehose in eastern MA slowly sunk south. 1992 drifted SE too but it had a nice long stall before it did...longer than this one will have. Hard to pin down the stall aspect yet...it is somewhat dependent too on how the vort maxes are rotating into the ULL. March 2013 sort of screwed me relatively speaking bc of the south sink....I'm a little worried this will be a repeat. I had like 14", as opposed to the 2' in the Boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I think the Euro is going to be a tamer NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This is cool, hat-tip crankweatherguy... lots of mesoscale features embedding in the circulation that will enhance rates and winds: https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/969076938592661505 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Gotta ask.. What are "cats paws"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Gotta ask.. What are "cats paws"? Large parachute like dendrites.....I think....the kind where usually the taint is imminent....in this case they would herald the beginning of the snow phase of the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Gotta ask.. What are "cats paws"? Big, sloppy hybrid rain drops/snowflakes...they usually do not accumulate much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Big, sloppy hybrid rain drops/snowflakes...they usually do not accumulate much. Ya they look cool but never last long.....usually starts raining within 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Here we go Euro pbp by .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Anyone see the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone see the Ukie? Most of qpf gone by hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone see the Ukie? Yeah looked a tick southeast of 12z Not worried about these ticks at this point... and as mentioned, these anomalously dynamic systems often tick north before game time, so we have buffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Euro looks colder this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Most of qpf gone by hr 48. No way QPF is gone by 0z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Wtf, EURO isn't running on wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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