TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: That is one helluva sad looking clown map on tropical tidbits. lol The clown maps couldn't be more useless in this storm, we should ban them until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Harv is waivering in confidence...really hedging. Just watched Eric Fisher. He has no confidence in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: That is one helluva sad looking clown map on tropical tidbits. lol Perfect for....clowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 He pretty much said that eastern area's will depend almost entirely on rates and he really doesn't know how heavy the rates will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Harv is waivering in confidence...really hedging. This is a big ticket call, I would not want to be giving a public forecast. Based on today's trends I think this could really be a slightly scaled back version of April 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: What did he say? "Absolutely brutal to have to make a snowfall forecast.....1-4", but could be drastically different". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya Trending progressive, Not a good thing for e areas The key is keeping that firehose north and not letting it sink SE too early after changeover. The good news is that we may have the famous 24h bump north a bit....that could really pay dividends...esp if we keep trending that antecedent airmass a bit colder. That would prolong the heavy snow for prob a good 6+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Look at Ryan.....just servin it up lol I did throw the GFS in the dumpster on air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The key is keeping that firehose north and not letting it sink SE too early after changeover. The good news is that we may have the famous 24h bump north a bit....that could really pay dividends...esp if we keep trending that antecedent airmass a bit colder. That would prolong the heavy snow for prob a good 6+ hours. Despite trending a bit more progressive, it did bump total QPF north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 GFS clownage has 2" spot now near Taunton...that's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I do still think there is a pretty plausible path to a very meh event for many....you get the dreaded 33F catpaws for hours and hours and then when it finally flips, we start losing intensity and the whole thing sinks S....and people are left with advisory slop. Now, I'm leaning toward the heavier side of things right now, but people should totally keep that scenario in mind...it's not far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The key is keeping that firehose north and not letting it sink SE too early after changeover. The good news is that we may have the famous 24h bump north a bit....that could really pay dividends...esp if we keep trending that antecedent airmass a bit colder. That would prolong the heavy snow for prob a good 6+ hours. Some of us need a 75 mile bump north. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 lol even with a mega block we can’t get a system to hang around...something always comes along to push these things out.. too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I do still think there is a pretty plausible path to a very meh event for many....you get the dreaded 33F catpaws for hours and hours and then when it finally flips, we start losing intensity and the whole thing sinks S....and people are left with advisory slop. Now, I'm leaning toward the heavier side of things right now, but people should totally keep that scenario in mind...it's not far fetched. Not at all...I know I gambled on first call, but went with my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I do still think there is a pretty plausible path to a very meh event for many....you get the dreaded 33F catpaws for hours and hours and then when it finally flips, we start losing intensity and the whole thing sinks S....and people are left with advisory slop. Now, I'm leaning toward the heavier side of things right now, but people should totally keep that scenario in mind...it's not far fetched. That's what Harvey said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ihelpstill think there is a pre tty plausible path to a very meh event for many....you get the dreaded 33F catpaws for hours and hours and then when it finally flips, we start losing intensity and the whole thing sinks S....and people are left with advisory slop. Now, I'm leaning toward the heavier side of things right now, but people should totally keep that scenario in mind...it's not far fetched. Exactly That 400' your at is gonna Help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: lol I did throw the GFS in the dumpster on air Well done. Afraid public (those who tune somehwre else) will be caught off guard as friday progresses and be completely fabrigasted when it flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: lol even with a mega block we can’t get a system to hang around...something always comes along to push these things out.. too bad. The block is at least preventing this from being a 60F rainstorm where the low tracks into Ottawa...it's pretty impressive how this thing gets muscled from near Lake Erie to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I do hope I'm not too near the n edge considering it will begin to sink....that would blow if the heavy snow here was truncated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: lol I did throw the GFS in the dumpster on air HAHA.....I had you guys on but volume on mute.....so all I saw was a lot of maps and GFS and Euro icons with pressure bars......seemed like you were really dealing there.....good luck with the 3-6 call here......hope you bust low.....haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well done. Afraid public (those who tune somehwre else) will be caught off guard as friday progresses and be completely fabrigasted when it flips. A certain station in our state has made no mention of the possibility of snow. Irresponsible and borderline dangerous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I's also add that pretty much all the models now are doing a full-fledged capture...and when that happens, we tend to stall things out a bit longer than guidance likes to do. It's not one of these half-capture deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The block is at least preventing this from being a 60F rainstorm where the low tracks into Ottawa...it's pretty impressive how this thing gets muscled from near Lake Erie to the benchmark. Oh sure...but something always saves us from the truly stalled system. I was never on board with a really long duration event...cuz they almost never happen/very rare. Kevin will be disappointed again, cuz he was thinking snow through daylight morning hours on Saturday lol..knew that wasn’t happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: lol even with a mega block we can’t get a system to hang around...something always comes along to push these things out.. too bad. Its always something right? Just give me a Feb 2013 please.....so great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I do hope I'm not too near the n edge considering it will begin to sink....that would blow if the heavy snow here was truncated. That is prob my main worry for you...but I do think in the end, we bump the firehose decently north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: A certain station in our state has made no mention of the possibility of snow. Irresponsible and borderline dangerous... Esp when the possibility is during the day - work and school.....and not like it will be flurries either if and when it happens. Turrable broadcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I do still think there is a pretty plausible path to a very meh event for many....you get the dreaded 33F catpaws for hours and hours and then when it finally flips, we start losing intensity and the whole thing sinks S....and people are left with advisory slop. Now, I'm leaning toward the heavier side of things right now, but people should totally keep that scenario in mind...it's not far fetched. or maybe we get lucky, we snow starting ~9z Fri and the modeled warm layer around ~900-850 mb isn't real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I's also add that pretty much all the models now are doing a full-fledged capture...and when that happens, we tend to stall things out a bit longer than guidance likes to do. It's not one of these half-capture deals. Could you post a quick annotation illustrating what exactly a full capture looks like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That is prob my main worry for you...but I do think in the end, we bump the firehose decently north. That was how I hedged....banking on the northern edge getting up near PSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Cmc and ukie are going to carry weight tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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