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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

My memory is that it was supposed to start in the morning but it took until early afternoon to start snowing......I was in Cheshire at work and when I left it was coming hard.....84 back to West Hartford took an hour......but I think I got a thundersnow out of it when I pulled off in Farmington to clear the windshield......the sound of thunder in a snowstorm is like no other.....its different and very soothing

It didn’t start here to practically dark...southeast was raked..we got jipped big time!

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Who said cmc had no snow?  Seemed like a crush Job 21z-6Z to me.

12z also had no snow on the clown maps even though it was a beast in the mid/upper levels...may have been looking at a clown map.

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Unlike most of you, I've only been following/forecasting/chasing NE winter storms since the blizzard of 3/26/14.  As a result, I've had to rely on familiarizing myself with the ambient climate, unique topographical effects, and the history of past major storms in this region, in order to augment my own knowledge derived from forecasting in the Carolina's.  On that note, reading the threads in this particular sub-forum has been invaluable.  As I learned long ago, experience is often times the best teacher; which is true in both meteorology, as well as in life.

At the current time, I favor a blend of the 12z EURO and the 00z Nam...which reminds me of the old EE rule, ironically.

Even though we are closing in on 24 hours before secondary development of low pressure S of LI, E of NJ, there's still ample time for very consequential modeled movement in the initial formation location of the secondary, its subsequent trajectory from there, and the thermal profiles at the lower levels.   

If anything, I expect a marginally more favorable evolution to transpire with the models and ultimately with verification, thereof.   

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