TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Pretty surprised to wake up and see the euro as mostly a non event. Would be funny if after all this the euro is right and most of the snow falls in SE Mass. the cutback across the board is pretty concerning though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 It might have to do with our southern vortmax not even being consolidated anymore. There is this lead energy that never really gets captured and it ends up rotating around the ull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The euro huggers saying the euro has been steadfast is sorta too much I mean c'mon Last nite was pitiful even in Catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Seems like we’ve been taking one step forward and two steps back for days with this storm. Finally see a positive trend late yesterday with the snow... now suddenly we are losing precip all together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It might have to muchith our southern vortmax no at even being consolidated anymore. There is this lead energy that never really gets captured and it ends up rotating around the ull. Yes there is about 15 ways this doesnt snow Much and 1 where it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The 0z ggem probably illustrates it the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: The 0z ggem probably illustrates it the best And at the surface you get this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The euro huggers saying the euro has been steadfast is sorta too much I mean c'mon Last nite was pitiful even in Catskills Theres so much juice, I’m going with guidance that handles convection better. Remember Jan 4,euro was chasing convection blobs...its last run before go time was still too SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Worth looking back at 4/97 H5 charts... maybe I'm giving this too much weight, but it probably helped that the bulk of vorticity circled around to the north of the ULLThat system had multiple low centers too, but they were developing even northeast of the main low, prolonging the CCB into SNEIn tomorrow's case, bulk of vorticity is southeast of the ULL as depicted on current guidance... the entire thing gets tugged out faster. 24-30 hours is still time for this to improve. First out of the gate 12z Nam will be telling as it's the most aggressive at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Worth looking back at 4/97 H5 charts... maybe I'm giving this too much weight, but it probably helped that the bulk of vorticity circled around to the north of the ULL That system had multiple low centers too, but they were developing even northeast of the main low, prolonging the CCB into SNE In tomorrow's case, bulk of vorticity is southeast of the ULL as depicted on current guidance... the entire thing gets tugged out faster. 24-30 hours is still time for this to improve. First out of the gate 12z Nam will be telling as it's the most aggressive at the moment. Shes slipping Icon went se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 20 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The 0z ggem probably illustrates it the best Good analysis. Looks like that may be the key with that energy getting too far out then captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6z GFS was actually more amped than 0z. Better phasing all around, and less confluence to the northeast. I may be alone on this, but I want the nuke, whether it means mostly rain or not... Good things can happen on the side of cold if we have <970 low right off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 last 10 runs of ze german have been fairly consistent. Kinda impressed if you compare it to last 10 runs of its competitors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Some decent mini melts last night. Would read again. I'm still trying to figure out which is the model of choice because all have been tossed at some point, Looks like the Nam has the hot hand until 12z anyways.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Good analysis. It looks like that may be the key wit h that energy getting too far out then captured. Its gotta be soooo close wether that Is enough energy That scoots East that it screws the pooch or wether its noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Its gotta be soooo close wether that Is enough energy That scoots East that it screws the pooch or wether its noise Yeah, maybe a bit of separation would be beneficial. Let the best dynamics go to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 That nc forecaster dude who is leaving@noon should prepare to stop at like 1:10 and turn around if euro holds court Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 39 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Seems like we’ve been taking one step forward and two steps back for days with this storm. Finally see a positive trend late yesterday with the snow... now suddenly we are losing precip all together Will not matter to me at this point as it is still looking a mostly rain event, with a possible attempt at a 1/2" of accumulating snow after hours of rain. I've had my share of rain this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That nc forecaster dude who is leaving@noon should prepare to stop at like 1:10 and turn around if euro holds court He is into the coastal wind/surge scene...which on the euro is still ridiculous. Might just want to go more toward PYM if it's a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That nc forecaster dude who is leaving@noon should prepare to stop at like 1:10 and turn around if euro holds court lol. Is that guy seriously coming this way to chase this "beast"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This is about exactly how my map would look. From our friend e weather on Twitter , down in Haddam. Of all the maps I’ve seen, this is closest to what I think happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Also i got a room in beckett on standby (well over 1k) for cheapski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is about exactly how my map would look. From our friend e weather on Twitter , down in Haddam. Of all the maps I’ve seen, this is closest to what I think happens Weird ranges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Weird ranges the zero for boston is spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 @ORH_wxman Any relationship between this storm and Feb 8 2013? (2m temps aside...) I wonder if a last minute jump northeast is possible with this similar to what happened then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: the zero for boston is spot on Tblizz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Th Feb 13 event was much different at H5. The key was a piece of s/w energy that phased into it from NY and helped that thing go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 The blended last 24 to 36 hours worth of guidance et al, really hasn't changed for me. This is a dramatic ..albeit fairly classic Nor'easter in form. However extreme its sensible impacts, notwithstanding. Ptype: During the first 1/2 to perhaps 2/3rds of the event, I suspect it rains, heavily much of the time. My experience with these types of initially marginal evolutions (1992 and your 1997's ..which have been pretty routine analogs to whatever degree throughout this run up) is that in the nearer hours post closure of the mid level centers (at their standard sigma intervals) the rain snow line collapses SE. Most probably that is the UVM spike that occurs when those physical processes take place, that tips the column in favor of cold, BUT, that gets a bit more focused along the transition for these sorts of scenarios. The difference here is that we are (marginal + 1); in other words, a tick above marginal. But that is still quite close and dynamic systems doing these closures will tend to come along with "unintended consequences," moreover, those that are usually not well foreseen. If we were say even 2.5 C above critical at those respective thickness intervals, I'd be happy to buy a canoe and rejoice in the fact that we rarely lose power over mere 40 mph wind gust and heavy rain in the interior. Which frankly... no one asked but I'm okay with that anyway... However, if marginal +1 is overcome and it flips, I wanna appreciate for a moment that the sky scape in the period would be really fascinating to see, with typical undulatory motion? That sort of vague impression of nebular roiling by over chilly wind gust ... that's snow off the deck not making it down initially. Then cat-paws start being actual parachutes and your in.. As far as impact, it will come down to three scenarios: one, translucent slush ... mainly non-consequential; two, a huge deposition of glop that probably doesn't really even cling to the trees and power lines, or even streets too well, because it's just too rich with liquid water; three, ...really bring the hammer through any warm layers and we end up choking in perfection for how to create monster QPF in a snowing column. Obviously, any one of these three scenarios has different sensible impact. For #one, probably enters a significant fresh water flood threat where that sets up.. The middle range option is also got that ... but, that flood concern therein flips over to a grid concerns with power outages if this biases colder .. I am not sure how confident one can really be in any one of these three scenarios, hence ...'marginality.' Wind: This is probably being under sold a little? I haven't heard a lot of discourse ... it seems the focus has been in order of public interest: snow, CF ... somewhere out here, wind. But, given the deep CCB jet that's depicted, combining height falls lends to a bit of instability and perhaps momentum transerfering. This also enter a grid concern somewhat, certainly as we look at eastern zones. I see that BOX has wind notifications flying - certainly agreed. Multi-facets event ... coastal flood concerns are high and have been getting better coverage, which I am glad. Because for the moment anyway, this is the lead head-line offence that this beast appears poised to unleash. Others have done fine to describe the multi-cycle, amplifying effects due to duration, and I don't think this can be overstated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: @ORH_wxman Any relationship between this storm and Feb 8 2013? (2m temps aside...) I wonder if a last minute jump northeast is possible with this similar to what happened then... Not really...maybe some mild similarities in that it had a vort out ahead of the main energy diving in...but the difference is this one does the full capture/phase whereas Feb 2013 didn't achieve that until northeast of us when ti was SW of Nova Scotia. You can loop it here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0208.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0209.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9z SREFs quite a bit down on snow for the eastern folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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