Hoth Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Lol, go to bed feeling pretty good about things, wake up to find a progressive nuisance storm. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Maybe, I feel like its been one of the more stable ones relative to the bunch. It is. I mean it did have nothing two days ago, but it hasn’t been jumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 It’s going to be a great storm here so I’m really looking forward to that. It’s not always snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Maybe, I feel like its been one of the more stable ones relative to the bunch. Lol...I don’t know how people can say that? Thing was chasing convection Tuesday night...then it went to a good hit with regard to snow yesterday, then back to a snooze fest at 1:00 am again with regard to snow. It used to be the stable one...since the upgrade it’s not the same model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 17 hours ago, JC-CT said: The plains monsters into monster block scenarios were cool, but this might be a more classic evolution. I think we’re seeing why we wanted the former. We don’t get the nuke until after she’s tucked in and already flooded the mid levels. And then the mid level magic comes as she wants to slide SE, as the UL low moves progressively SE. I think the best hope for the short term changes is she tracks further northeast than current guidance consensus before the capture and track southeast. Get her just east of the Cape rather than just east of LI. In this way, the region would see more of a backed wind from the beginning and the mid levels wouldn’t get skunked.... This would obviously be diff without a terrible antecedent airmass; but this always was the case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s going to be a great storm here so I’m really looking forward to that. It’s not always snow. The coastal impacts really are looking pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s going to be a great storm here so I’m really looking forward to that. It’s not always snow. Get us some videos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 With regard to snow...anytime there is constant changes right up to go time like this is..it usually never bodes well for something decent...at least most times anyway. Hill tops can still do ok...and NYS..but for the majority it looks to be a sloppy couple inches at best unfortunately from this one. Along the coast it will be a stormy time for sure..stay safe and enjoy the show there. For the rest outside the shore and big hills I think this will be very forgettable as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Strange how inside 48hr you can see wholesale positive trends then they fade away at 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Strange how inside 48hr you can see wholesale positive trends then they fade away at 24hr. It's a longer duration storm. The stall is still almost 48 hours away, at least from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dpb1983 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The emotional tug of war with these model runs is epic! What are the chances something like the 3K verifies? Seems the higher resolution mesos display a more prominent stall. Wind and power outage potential still seem like a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It's a longer duration storm. The stall is still almost 48 hours away, at least from 0z. You just wake up trying to prove people wrong? start of event is less than 24hrs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Some decent mini melts last night. Would read again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Most models are showing wind gusts over 65mph on the Cape. That's the place to be if you want to take in this storms full fury. Sea state will be impressive. James in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I’ll believe the stall when I see it..not to confident in that right now either?? This thing has had more tricks than Houdini lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You just wake up trying to prove people wrong? start of event is less than 24hrs now. The progressive vs stall aspect of the event is what happens Friday night, a full day after it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You just wake up trying to prove people wrong? start of event is less than 24hrs now. He's mostly right about the 00z runs...they were about 42-48 hours away from the most crucial part of the system. We will def need to see 12z come in a little better though because if they don't, then we're def running quite thin on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: He's mostly right about the 00z runs...they were about 42-48 hours away from the most crucial part of the system. We will def need to see 12z come in a little better though because if they don't, then we're def running quite thin on time. I understand what he is saying but he loves to roll out of bed and find posts to nitpick. Hes become an old lady complaining the mailman is 5min ‘late’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I understand what he is saying but he loves to roll out of bed and find posts to nitpick. Hes become an old lady complaining the mailman is 5min ‘late’. That's not what I was doing at all. I was explaining why it appears that we have model changes really close in, when it isn't actually the case. The model error curve doesn't stop just because a storm starts. If you read in between the lines, I also hinted that there is still a little time left for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 So.... I revise my post to d3 and d2 respectively to make the old lady ‘happy’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The thing with the EURO is it continues to follow the southern/eastern convection. It creates this duel low that never consolidates until its too far SE but that convective low stays with it the whole time as the "stronger" low. If everything were to bomb out where it looks like it could or should (the X) then it would be able to wrap the firehose moisture conveyor belt more efficiently into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: That's not what I was doing at all. I was explaining why it appears that we have model changes really close in, when it isn't actually the case. The model error curve doesn't stop just because a storm starts. If you read in between the lines, I also hinted that there is still a little time left for changes. Sorry I didnt read between the lines, I have vision problems...can only see outside the lines. ok on your point, I agree lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The funny thing is, we were in the same boat yesterday morning too..hoping for some positive changes at 12z yesterday, and we got them. Then they faded away yet again last night at 0z. So here we are again today hoping for some positive changes again today at 12z. To me that’s usually a sure sign of a dud(snow wise) for the most part...but we’ll see though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The thing with the EURO is it continues to follow the southern/eastern convection. It creates this duel low that never consolidates until its too far SE but that convective low stays with it the whole time as the "stronger" low. If everything were to bomb out where it looks like it could or should (the X) then it would be able to wrap the firehose moisture conveyor belt more efficiently into SNE. Euro wasn't the only model doing this either. There's a chance we see a good bump if we can get rid of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro wasn't the only model doing this either. There's a chance we see a good bump if we can get rid of that. hydro vs non again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The thing with the EURO is it continues to follow the southern/eastern convection. It creates this duel low that never consolidates until its too far SE but that convective low stays with it the whole time as the "stronger" low. If everything were to bomb out where it looks like it could or should (the X) then it would be able to wrap the firehose moisture conveyor belt more efficiently into SNE. Good post dude. Something is all fooked up with that Euro run. It’s hard to toss it so close in, but as they explained earlier.. you really have to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The thing with the EURO is it continues to follow the southern/eastern convection. It creates this duel low that never consolidates until its too far SE but that convective low stays with it the whole time as the "stronger" low. If everything were to bomb out where it looks like it could or should (the X) then it would be able to wrap the firehose moisture conveyor belt more efficiently into SNE. It's a tough call. Here's 925... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro wasn't the only model doing this either. There's a chance we see a good bump if we can get rid of that. 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Good post dude. Something is all fooked up with that Euro run. It’s hard to toss it so close in, but as they explained earlier.. you really have to The EPS individual members have a good deal that look much more like say the NAM with 2" QPF all over SNE.... but there's also a surprising amount (maybe a quarter?) that really have like under a third of an inch north of the Pike. Like so low that you'd have to toss those considering the other models. There is a very strong internal struggle going on within the EPS that is odd for that product at this close range. Certainly not clearing anything up. I'm fascinated by this. How close can we get to go-time without a real clear picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: hydro vs non again? Yeah the non -hydros def seem to be a little more wrapped...though even the RGEM was being kind of ugly with a secondary eastward center. The NAM was being the most consolidated...and not surprisingly, it has the firehose further north and lasting longer. Even tries a secondary push of moisture around 09-12z for eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Let’s see if we can slay the elephant today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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