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The Pope's 'And There You Have It" SWFE Feb 7 2018

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Climo for you is prob about another 2 feet from here on out. That would get you to 75" or so....would be a solid winter there. A bit above average.

 

Hopefully we rock in late Feb and March...that can be a really fun period when the pattern is right. Usually you're long done by then down in NC.

I've been guessing the average here is about 60-65" per winter. Sounds about right?

I'm still enjoying these snow events, although the cold is starting to wear me down at this point with two more months left. Typically, I start expecting few days in 70s by mid-February down in NC and any snow after Presidents' Day is shocking.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I've been guessing the average here is about 60-65" per winter. Sounds about right?

I'm still enjoying these snow events, although the cold is starting to wear me down at this point with two more months left. Typically, I start expecting few days in 70s by mid-February down in NC and any snow after Presidents' Day is shocking.

Woah southern boy crying for his Momma?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I've been guessing the average here is about 60-65" per winter. Sounds about right?

I'm still enjoying these snow events, although the cold is starting to wear me down at this point with two more months left. Typically, I start expecting few days in 70s by mid-February down in NC and any snow after Presidents' Day is shocking.

Yeah prob closer to mid 60s...esp if you are off the water more than a couple miles. Like any place it will vary with the elevation too...if you are north up near/north of the 16/108 interchange there, then you can prob add a few inches. Further off the water, north, and an extra 200 feet elevation.

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SharonA

SharonA

Posted
Posted

About 6" plus crust in Freeport, and it looks like we're done.  No new precip at my location and the Warning's been dropped a few hours ahead of time.

 

Avalanche Watch - Are these typical after this type of event?

  

NHZ002-090100-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH
FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
938 PM EST WED FEB 7 2018

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE FOREST
SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH.

THE US FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER HAS
ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.

* TIMING...IN EFFECT FROM NOW UNTIL 8PM THURSDAY FEBRUARY 8, 2018.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE CUTLER RIVER DRAINAGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
MOUNT WASHINGTON INCLUDING FORECAST AREAS IN TUCKERMAN AND
HUNTINGTON RAVINES. WATCH CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN OTHER AREAS
OUTSIDE THOSE FORECAST BY THE AVALANCHE CENTER.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL INCREASE THROUGH
  TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY MORNING CREATING DANGEROUS
  AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD NATURAL AVALANCHE ACTIVITY IS
  POSSIBLE.

* REASON/IMPACTS...A POTENT WINTER STORM ARRIVED ON WEDNESDAY.
  INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS RECENT HEAVY
  SNOWFALL. THIS WIND WILL TRANSPORT SNOW TO BUILD UNSTABLE SLABS
  WHICH ARE LIKELY TO AVALANCHE NATURALLY OR WITH A HUMAN TRIGGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD PLAN ON RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.
EXTRA CAUTION IS REQUIRED IF PLANNING A TRIP INTO AVALANCHE
TERRAIN. BACKCOUNTRY TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DANGEROUS.

SIMILAR AVALANCHE DANGER MAY EXIST AT LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE
COVERAGE AREA OF THIS OR ANY AVALANCHE CENTER.

CONSULT THE CURRENT AVALANCHE ADVISORY AT
WWW.MOUNTWASHINGTONAVALANCHECENTER.ORG FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SharonA said:

About 6" plus crust in Freeport, and it looks like we're done.  No new precip at my location and the Warning's been dropped a few hours ahead of time.

 

Avalanche Warning - Are these typical after this type of event?

  


NHZ002-090100-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH
FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
938 PM EST WED FEB 7 2018

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE FOREST
SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH.

THE US FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER HAS
ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.

* TIMING...IN EFFECT FROM NOW UNTIL 8PM THURSDAY FEBRUARY 8, 2018.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE CUTLER RIVER DRAINAGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
MOUNT WASHINGTON INCLUDING FORECAST AREAS IN TUCKERMAN AND
HUNTINGTON RAVINES. WATCH CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN OTHER AREAS
OUTSIDE THOSE FORECAST BY THE AVALANCHE CENTER.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL INCREASE THROUGH
  TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY MORNING CREATING DANGEROUS
  AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD NATURAL AVALANCHE ACTIVITY IS
  POSSIBLE.

* REASON/IMPACTS...A POTENT WINTER STORM ARRIVED ON WEDNESDAY.
  INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS RECENT HEAVY
  SNOWFALL. THIS WIND WILL TRANSPORT SNOW TO BUILD UNSTABLE SLABS
  WHICH ARE LIKELY TO AVALANCHE NATURALLY OR WITH A HUMAN TRIGGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD PLAN ON RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.
EXTRA CAUTION IS REQUIRED IF PLANNING A TRIP INTO AVALANCHE
TERRAIN. BACKCOUNTRY TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DANGEROUS.

SIMILAR AVALANCHE DANGER MAY EXIST AT LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE
COVERAGE AREA OF THIS OR ANY AVALANCHE CENTER.

CONSULT THE CURRENT AVALANCHE ADVISORY AT
WWW.MOUNTWASHINGTONAVALANCHECENTER.ORG FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

 

Obviously dependent on what type of snow they got in the bowls.   Avalanche warnings can be pretty common in the ravines though.  Less so in places like the Gulf of Slides.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah prob closer to mid 60s...esp if you are off the water more than a couple miles. Like any place it will vary with the elevation too...if you are north up near/north of the 16/108 interchange there, then you can prob add a few inches. Further off the water, north, and an extra 200 feet elevation.

Not bad. I'm right downtown and think my elevation is about 50-75 feet so I'd consider 65" to be about average.

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

the ice situation is horrific...so burnt out dealing with it

i am really hating this winter, this is the above normal precip below normal temp stuff i was afraid of

more rain this weekend and nowhere for the water to go

I hear ya, Marchand just came down my driveway on the left wing. Rink - Skate.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, WxBlue said:

Not bad. I'm right downtown and think my elevation is about 50-75 feet so I'd consider 65" to be about average.

The thing about living up here, which I learned quickly when I moved to Webster NH on March 31 2008, is that just when you think spring is taking hold, we sometimes go back into deep winter later in Feb and March.  This happened last year.  It might happen this year.  It can be fun, but it can also get old when you start to yearn for the sun on your nape and you want to plant your spring garden.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The thing about living up here, which I learned quickly when I moved to Webster NH on March 31 2008, is that just when you think spring is taking hold, we sometimes go back into deep winter later in Feb and March.  This happened last year.  It might happen this year.  It can be fun, but it can also get old when you start to yearn for the sun on your nape and you want to plant your spring garden.

Early Feb and he's getting sick of the cold. He's going to love the rest of Feb, Mar, and Apr.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

@CoastalWx

@ORH_wxman

@dendrite

Nice jobs guys seeing the fake surface warmth in seascoast of NH. I was wrong about that. I underestimated the quickness of the 850 mb warmth (although it was real, as per the mesos), and slightly overestimated the low level warmth, in ORH to PSM. In terms of sensible weather it was important - ORH had several hours of freezing rain before flipping to plain rain for a few hours, and KPSM never went above freezing - it appears the low level CF made it as far north as seabrook/Hampton beach but never made it passed there before the wind backed again. You guys all pointed that out and it was a great call. We had quite a bit of freezing rain here in NH and you guys saw that potential whereas I did not. Those areas right along the margin of the CF were a tough call, and guidance was clearly not reliable with trying to pin point exactly where the CF would end up and how far northwest it would progress before collapsing back to the SE. For myself, in looking at the scope of the error it looks like I approximated the CF would make it about 20 miles further NW than it did, in actuality...

Experience with local climo clearly helped you guys with this forecast. Cheers to a good forecast, and standing your ground. :clap:

Looking forward to the next one.

 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Early Feb and he's getting sick of the cold. He's going to love the rest of Feb, Mar, and Apr.

2 ft on the ground March 31 2008 and piles the size of mountains.  But the ground was clear before the end of April lol.  And then a couple years later I think, 80s and 90s in March.  Quite a place we live in

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@CoastalWx

@ORH_wxman

@dendrite

Nice jobs guys seeing the fake surface warmth in seascoast of NH. I was wrong about that. I underestimated the quickness of the 850 mb warmth (although it was real, as per the mesos), and slightly overestimated the low level warmth, in ORH to PSM. In terms of sensible weather it was important - ORH had several hours of freezing rain before flipping to plain rain for a few hours, and KPSM never went above freezing - it appears the low level CF made it as far north as seabrook/Hampton beach but never made it passed there before the wind backed again. You guys all pointed that out and it was a great call. We had quite a bit of freezing rain here in NH and you guys saw that potential whereas I did not. Those areas right along the margin of the CF were a tough call, and guidance was clearly not reliable with trying to pin point exactly where the CF would end up and how far northwest it would progress before collapsing back to the SE. For myself, in looking at the scope of the error it looks like I approximated the CF would make it about 20 miles further NW than it did, in actuality...

Experience with local climo clearly helped you guys with this forecast. Cheers to a good forecast, and standing your ground. :clap:

Looking forward to the next one.

 

Well regardless of how it all turned out, and who was more right, etc.  I thought you laid out your thinking clearly and it led to an interesting conversation that I learned from, by causing others to explain more deeply what they thought would happen.  Isn't that when a board like this is operating at its best?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@CoastalWx

@ORH_wxman

@dendrite

Nice jobs guys seeing the fake surface warmth in seascoast of NH. I was wrong about that. I underestimated the quickness of the 850 mb warmth (although it was real, as per the mesos), and slightly overestimated the low level warmth, in ORH to PSM. In terms of sensible weather it was important - ORH had several hours of freezing rain before flipping to plain rain for a few hours, and KPSM never went above freezing - it appears the low level CF made it as far north as seabrook/Hampton beach but never made it passed there before the wind backed again. You guys all pointed that out and it was a great call. We had quite a bit of freezing rain here in NH and you guys saw that potential whereas I did not. Those areas right along the margin of the CF were a tough call, and guidance was clearly not reliable with trying to pin point exactly where the CF would end up and how far northwest it would progress before collapsing back to the SE. For myself, in looking at the scope of the error it looks like I approximated the CF would make it about 20 miles further NW than it did, in actuality...

Experience with local climo clearly helped you guys with this forecast. Cheers to a good forecast, and standing your ground. :clap:

Looking forward to the next one.

 

You win some; you lose some. You're not afraid to challenge the general consensus here and I like that. You've had some good calls here over the last 2 years too.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@CoastalWx

@ORH_wxman

@dendrite

Nice jobs guys seeing the fake surface warmth in seascoast of NH. I was wrong about that. I underestimated the quickness of the 850 mb warmth (although it was real, as per the mesos), and slightly overestimated the low level warmth, in ORH to PSM. In terms of sensible weather it was important - ORH had several hours of freezing rain before flipping to plain rain for a few hours, and KPSM never went above freezing - it appears the low level CF made it as far north as seabrook/Hampton beach but never made it passed there before the wind backed again. You guys all pointed that out and it was a great call. We had quite a bit of freezing rain here in NH and you guys saw that potential whereas I did not. Those areas right along the margin of the CF were a tough call, and guidance was clearly not reliable with trying to pin point exactly where the CF would end up and how far northwest it would progress before collapsing back to the SE. For myself, in looking at the scope of the error it looks like I approximated the CF would make it about 20 miles further NW than it did, in actuality...

Experience with local climo clearly helped you guys with this forecast. Cheers to a good forecast, and standing your ground. :clap:

Looking forward to the next one.

 

Thanks J, but I think you had very valid points too. You stuck to your guns which is definitely admirable. It's just that for years of looking at these things, you just recognize model biases with certain setups.  Even with high resolution guidance, the biases still show up. It's nice to know that humans still can provide an advantage over ever improving guidance!

Also in the realm of honesty, I probably should not have been so definite on taking the under of 32 at ORH. Although I did explain why it could happen (post front mixing), probably not the best idea to be so definitive about it. Good event from a forecast stabdpoint. I definitely expected more snow north of the pike, but the last minute trend of warmth in the mid levels frequently happens with these.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks J, but I think you had very valid points too. You stuck to your guns which is definitely admirable. It's just that for years of looking at these things, you just recognize model biases with certain setups.  Even with high resolution guidance, the biases still show up. It's nice to know that humans still can provide an advantage over ever improving guidance!

Also in the realm of honesty, I probably should not have been so definite on taking the under of 32 at ORH. Although I did explain why it could happen (post front mixing), probably not the best idea to be so definitive about it. Good event from a forecast stabdpoint. I definitely expected more snow north of the pike, but the last minute trend of warmth in the mid levels frequently happens with these.

Didn’t ORH have 1 hour of above 32 like here? 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks J, but I think you had very valid points too. You stuck to your guns which is definitely admirable. It's just that for years of looking at these things, you just recognize model biases with certain setups.  Even with high resolution guidance, the biases still show up. It's nice to know that humans still can provide an advantage over ever improving guidance!

Also in the realm of honesty, I probably should not have been so definite on taking the under of 32 at ORH. Although I did explain why it could happen (post front mixing), probably not the best idea to be so definitive about it. Good event from a forecast stabdpoint. I definitely expected more snow north of the pike, but the last minute trend of warmth in the mid levels frequently happens with these.

Agree on all points.

Yes, the speed of the mid level warmth is definitely something I've made a mental note for going forward. The mesos were also much more reliable in this regard, particularly relative to the surface temps, and the progression of the surface CF.

I think you're also right about my LI climo PTSD :lol: - although being in here for a few years definitely has me on the path to a cure :thumbsup: ! In retrospect, looking at this event, expecting the quick flip to rain from the coast to the the far interior really was my own mental trap. LI rarely --if ever--sees freezing rain, and mid level warmth is usually the immediate death knell to any frozen precipitation absent a better than marginal CAD setup while precipitation is falling. This logic and experience worked well for areas south of I90--but it's far from a slam dunk for areas north/west of there. Now don't get me wrong - I know enough not to project LI climo anywhere in New England (save maybe the Cape) but I still sometimes find myself surprised (as in this case) by the tendency of low level cold to so efficiently drain into the far interior and remain there. The northern Apps and how this relates to the over-performance of WAA (in warmer months) and CAD (in colder months) is yet another critical factor that makes weather prediction so challenging around here....

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