WVclimo Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Southerly winds really freshening here now at 18 G25. Temp had leveled off at 29 but now rising. DP still at 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 33 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: More likely that I'll just be dry, but you should never under-estimate the nutz-kicking potential of this place. Nope. I would bet A LOT that we see at least an inch tomorrow. This is the type of event where we can do OK on the front end. We just need to see the precip come in as early as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Nope. I would bet A LOT that we see at least an inch tomorrow. This is the type of event where we can do OK on the front end. We just need to see the precip to come in as early as possible. I want to see precip leave as early as possible after the crust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I want to see precip leave as early as possible after the crust. Thats kind of why we have an advantage out here in these type of events. We dry slot after the initial thump most of the time. The 0Z NAM does have us getting rain out here. But I will believe that when I see it. That would be abnormal. Although with this winter who the hell knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I know I will not see any frozen, so I do not want to see any prec here. We are wet enough, do not need any rain!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The 1z HRRR has very little frozen for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Any chance the hrrr resolution is too fine for cad events? (ie. mesoscale over microscale) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Any chance the hrrr resolution is too fine for cad events? (ie. mesoscale over microscale) The HRRR tends to erode these shallow inversions too quickly; the problem may be that it doesn't have enough vertical resolution in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: The HRRR tends to erode these shallow inversions too quickly; the problem may be that it doesn't have enough vertical resolution in the boundary layer. Make a request for the fire nest will you please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The 1z HRRR has very little frozen for anyone. Just a friendly every storm reminder that the hrrr is terrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 My area always seems so wet compared to many other locations. I asked a pro met once about this. I am so serious when I say I do not need any more rain. We are on a septic system here and septics do not like a wet, saturated ground! Here is what he says is the reasoning for so much moisture for my area! it has everything to do with the proximity of the mountain chain and where in NC and VA the downslope ends and the oppositie begins, which is recovergence. I've done countless studies on this phenomonon at my site and on FB over the years going way, way back. Its one of my pet peaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just a friendly every storm reminder that the hrrr is terrible! Roger that. It’s always cool when a met chimes in...it’s like no further discussion is required. In our world red taggers are like super heros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Roger that. It’s always cool when a met chimes in...it’s like no further discussion is required. In our world red taggers are like super heros. Be careful saying that. I tried it a while ago and was frowned upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Be careful saying that. I tried it a while ago and was frowned upon. Really. Well then I will just quietly appreciate their insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 What's the predictions for when moisture hits 17 dew point OR will it hold off long enough that it's noon and 38? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 Rgem still wants to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Rgem still wants to snow Yeah. the RGEM is real nice out this way. We will see how hard it busts in about 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. the RGEM is real nice out this way. We will see how hard it busts in about 12 hours Trends don't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Trends don't look good. The RGEM has been rock solid for days. Doesnt mean its right. It could just be going down with the ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 We're in trouble when we're saying "it looks good" to the model showing 1" for the extreme NW fringes of our region. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Hugging the 3K NAM.....but current temps already rising from earlier this evening, 33/10 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I am really excited about this storm! I'll get to enjoy a strong cartopping of moderate RAIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Keep checking short term models to see if they trend colder because this is a good wedge pattern for surprise snow but they go really warm tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Daily SOI +29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Cant wait for this event to get underway. Currently 30/27. Hopefully I can manage a few sleet pellets before yet another soaking rain. At least it looks like the I-95 corridor, where its been so dry, should get a decent soaker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Cant wait for this event to get underway. Currently 30/27. Hopefully I can manage a few sleet pellets before yet another soaking rain. At least it looks like the I-95 corridor, where its been so dry, should get a decent soaker too. Pretty much in 'Chips fall as they may' mode. Looking over things it doesn't look too promising for the cities south and east. Except for some brief sleet pellets and maybe a mangled flake think chances of anything noteworthy will be confined to up around the PA line and north as well as the higher terrain to the west. And even here in Hanover, just north of the PA line, my hopes of anything are somewhat diminished as I see a brisk southerly wind and temps already sitting at 31.5 degrees. Dew points are only going to help me so much. eta: Don't get me wrong, I am hoping this is a positive bust but at this point I am just not feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Pretty much in 'Chips fall as they may' mode. Looking over things it doesn't look too promising for the cities south and east. Except for some brief sleet pellets and maybe a mangled flake think chances of anything noteworthy will be confined to up around the PA line and north as well as the higher terrain to the west. And even here in Hanover, just north of the PA line, my hopes of anything are somewhat diminished as I see a brisk southerly wind and temps already sitting at 31.5 degrees. Dew points are only going to help me so much. eta: Don't get me wrong, I am hoping this is a positive bust but at this point I am just not feeling it. I would have thought you would be a bit colder than that. Temp here oddly dropped a degree, down to 29, but dp is 27. You will likely drop a couple degrees at the surface at onset. Ultimately its all about the warming aloft. Probably not much in the way of snow there, but should see a decent period of sleet/zr before a flip I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 This is going to be painful to watch! The radar looks so good right now! Normally everyone would be licking their chops right now with it lit up like this! Current in Severna Park - 32.9 /DP 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I would have thought you would be a bit colder than that. Temp here oddly dropped a degree, down to 29, but dp is 27. You will likely drop a couple degrees at the surface at onset. Ultimately its all about the warming aloft. Probably not much in the way of snow there, but should see a decent period of sleet/zr before a flip I would think. Looking at somewhat current soundings (actually 1 hour ahead) from the point and click on the HRRR already see a warm nose intruding from 925 down to 950 with temps at 32. Dews are good at this point which will help to bring that down quite a bit. Interestingly enough they have the surface sitting at 28 and yet I am now sitting at 32. At this point I am hoping for at least a mulch covering before we flip over to sleet and then rain. Anything more will be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Already above freezing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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