cae Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’d really like something to come around to the RGEM’s idea of having some light precip come through earlier on Sunday. Probably the only way to see snow in the Beltway. 3k NAM says you'll see it on radar. Unless you live near the PA border, the blob over MD and northern VA is all virga. High-res RGEM is out on TT. As expected, it's a warmer than the RGEM. Not by much though. It shifts the shutout line in MD west to I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 So, the 18z GFS has DC at 34/10 at 12z Sunday and then 40/33 by 18. Yeah, it shows rain and a south wind, but there is no way we go up to near 40 right after it starts precipitating into that dry airmass. The 00z NAM nest goes in the opposite direction; it's slower with the precip, and most of DC metro warms above freezing Sunday morning but then cools back down to freezing or just below (especially the north and west side of town) as the precip falls into the dry air. I'm not going to say that the ZR will be as widespread as the NAM nest indicates, and it would be a really marginal event if it's on the right track, but I'll also insist that the GFS warm up is way too aggressive if the dry air and morning precip arrival are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said: This air mass is colder that originally oreducted i think the dew point is going to be like 24 at 6am Sunday if its 17 in pittsburgh and 39 in Macon, Ga...we will be gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, high risk said: So, the 18z GFS has DC at 34/10 at 12z Sunday and then 40/33 by 18. Yeah, it shows rain and a south wind, but there is no way we go up to near 40 right after it starts precipitating into that dry airmass. The 00z NAM nest goes in the opposite direction; it's slower with the precip, and most of DC metro warms above freezing Sunday morning but then cools back down to freezing or just below (especially the north and west side of town) as the precip falls into the dry air. I'm not going to say that the ZR will be as widespread as the NAM nest indicates, and it would be a really marginal event if it's on the right track, but I'll also insist that the GFS warm up is way too aggressive if the dry air and morning precip arrival are correct. Nam3k is really aggressive with wintry mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Nam3k is really aggressive with wintry mix NAM nest = NAM3k, so that was the point of my post, but maybe you knew that and were just agreeing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Weenie thought: some of the hi-res models barely take people above freezing tomorrow, if at all. Ground should be cold. Obviously the cold duration isn't as impressive as the 35 degree ice storm we had last time, but could pull off something similar, especially if there is a layer of sleet/snow on the ground already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, high risk said: NAM nest = NAM3k, so that was the point of my post, but maybe you knew that and were just agreeing.... lol...i thought the NAM nest was the whole NAM family... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: if its 17 in pittsburgh and 39 in Macon, Ga...we will be gold Hello again pittsburg colder than Boston IS a better set up for us I am glad we made peace. Want good relations everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, high risk said: So, the 18z GFS has DC at 34/10 at 12z Sunday and then 40/33 by 18. Yeah, it shows rain and a south wind, but there is no way we go up to near 40 right after it starts precipitating into that dry airmass. The 00z NAM nest goes in the opposite direction; it's slower with the precip, and most of DC metro warms above freezing Sunday morning but then cools back down to freezing or just below (especially the north and west side of town) as the precip falls into the dry air. I'm not going to say that the ZR will be as widespread as the NAM nest indicates, and it would be a really marginal event if it's on the right track, but I'll also insist that the GFS warm up is way too aggressive if the dry air and morning precip arrival are correct. The 34/10 would probably drop to 29/29 before moving up so gotta be frozen something somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 It's gon SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 Hello again pittsburg colder than Boston IS a better set up for us I am glad we made peace. Want good relations everywhereI only know you as weather53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I wish the rgem was a better model. Much colder than all other models and gives a nice thump to the far western areas. I think its hitting the pipe too much tonight...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 Rgem and namk3 advisory events right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Rgem also gets precip in by 7am. Which helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 Rgem also gets precip in by 7am. Which helps.Seems to really target Loudoun with good precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Rgem also gets precip in by 7am. Which helps. Seems to really target Loudoun with good precip Yea. Too bad it's the rgem. GFS just gave a dose of reality...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 it would be relatively cool to start SB sloppy sunday with some snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I guess the cmc is going down with the ship..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Well it looks like the CMC still holds the idea of getting some decent snow near the Metro areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Well it looks like the CMC still holds the idea of getting some decent snow near the Metro areas Cmc loves to give fantasy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Cmc loves to give fantasy snow Hey I am right in the bulls eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: Cmc loves to give fantasy snow Nothing else is even close so far. Most everything has trended warmer from what I can see at the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 41 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Nothing else is even close so far. Most everything has trended warmer from what I can see at the mid levels. Lol 3km NAM supports CMC... even the RGEM does too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Well they brined the roads to death again. Maybe that is a good sign? 2017-18 TOTAL: 15.9" 2" snow, 6.7" sand, 4.8" rock salt, 2.4" brine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol 3km NAM supports CMC... even the RGEM does too Fair enough...the GFS doesn’t support the CMC. That fact is skewing my mean thought process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Let's just turn the D.C. Beltway back into a rolling cloud of salt dust thats gotta be good to be driving thru? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I know it’s gonna flee like a scared cat, but it’s 13 degrees in Balt city this AM. Even for this winter if frustration, seeing no CAD help with this kind of cold as prelude is frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 what do the SREF say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I don' know if I have ever seen this much model chaos so close to an event. The setup is similar on all of the models. But the temps have them all screwed up. I am just going to go with my climo out here. I am expecting a small thump, maybe 1-3, then some ice to drizzle. That is what usually happens when we have this cold of air in place with these type of events. And it is cold. I got down to 12 last night and am at 16 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I got down to 7.8F last night. Impressive for my location without snow cover. Unless the precip comes in early I’m expecting cold rain for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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