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February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Nice write-up from the NWS.

 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
620 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Warmest February Day On Record...

In addition to setting new daily record highs for February 21st,
three of our six climate sites achieved their warmest February day
on record.

Central Park, NY...The high of 78 degrees today sets a new daily
record high temperature, breaking the previous record of 68
degrees set in 1930. In addition, this sets a new record high
temperature for the month of February, breaking the previous
record of 75 last set on February 24, 1985. This is also the
warmest it has ever been this early in the year. Previously, the
earliest it reached at least 78 degrees in Central Park was on
March 10, 2016 when the temperature rose to 79 degrees.

LaGuardia, NY...The high of 79 degrees today sets a new daily
record high temperature, breaking the previous record of 68
degrees set in 1953. In addition, this sets a new record high
temperature for the month of February, breaking the previous
record of 74 set on February 15, 1949. This is also the warmest it
has ever been this early in the year. Previously, the earliest it
reached at least 79 degrees at LaGuardia was on March 13, 1990
when the temperature rose to 83 degrees.

Newark, NJ...The high of 80 degrees today sets a new daily record
high temperature, breaking the previous record of 69 degrees set
in 1953. In addition, this sets a new record high temperature for
the month of February, breaking the previous record of 76, set on
February 15, 1949. This is also the warmest it has ever been this
early in the year. Previously, the earliest it reached at least 80
degrees in Newark was on March 9, 2016 when the temperature rose
to 82 degrees.

All records are considered preliminary until made official by the
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

$$
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28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Great shots at always don!! 

The only thing that (should) be blooming now is hellebore 

Nice to see something open for the honey bees. Mine are getting heavy sugar water currently. Bees will leave the hive usuakly when the hive temp reaches 55 or above; usually for cleansing flights after the winter.

 

 I'm through the heaviest part of the squal line. Temp is down to 57.

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Is it just me, or do these  hot winter days feel so weird with the low sun angle--kinda dream-like?

My car therm hit 85 while driving through Newark and that matches up with the airport high nicely given the heat from the road. Incredible day.

Over/Under 10 years for first 80 degree Jan high for any NYC station??

 

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43 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

witch hazel

True. I was going with perennials that’s a small tree/shrub 

 

I just had an incredible experience here in the city. I was walking down Broadway and it was still in the 70s as I turned the corner on 116th was hit by a cool breeze. Almost felt like waking into a walk in fridge. There had to be a 20 degree temp difference. I think it may have been from the wind shift to off the Hudson which is only 2 blocks west 

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23 minutes ago, masomenos said:

Is it just me, or do these  hot winter days feel so weird with the low sun angle--kinda dream-like?

My car therm hit 85 while driving through Newark and that matches up with the airport high nicely given the heat from the road. Incredible day.

Over/Under 10 years for first 80 degree Jan high for any NYC station??

 

Over. 75 maybe, 80? Well we would just about be calling it a day

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Record Temperatures for February 21, 2018 (as of 9 pm):


Albany: 73° (old record: 65°, 1981)
Allentown: 81° (old record: 67°, 1930 and 1953) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 77°, 2/24/2017)***
Atlantic City: 76° (old record: 67°, 1994 and 2016) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 75°, 2/24/1985)***
Baltimore: 79° (old record: 74°, 1930)
Binghamton: 69° (old record: 61°, 1953)
Boston: 72° (old record: 63°, 1906)
Bridgeport: 65° (old record: 59°, 2002)
Burlington: 69° (old record: 59°, 1981)
Caribou: 51° (old record: 50°, 1994)
Concord: 74° (old record: 64°, 1872) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 69°, 2/24/2017)***
Danbury: 77° (old record: 64°, 1953) ***Tied All-Time February Record set on 2/16/1954***
Harrisburg: 79°, (old record: 71°, 1997) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 78°, 2/27/1997)***
Hartford: 77° (old record: 63°, 1930) ***New All-Time February Record from (old record: 73°, 2/24/1985)***
New Haven: 64° (old record: 58°, 2002)
New York City:
…JFK: 65° (old record: 63°, 2002)
…LGA: 79° (old record: 68°, 1953) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 74°, 2/15/1949)***
…NYC: 78° (old record: 68°, 1930)***New All-Time February Record (old record: 75°, 2/25/1930 and 2/24/1985)***
Newark: 80° (old record: 69°, 1953) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 76°, 2/15/1949)***
Philadelphia: 77° (old record: 72°, 1930)
Portland: 68° (old record: 59°, 1953) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 64°, 2/27/1957)
Poughkeepsie: 76° (old record: 67°, 1953) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 73°, 2/28/1997 and 2/24/2017)***
Providence: 64° (old record: 63°, 1930)
Richmond: 80° (old record: 75°, 1930)
Salisbury: 76° (old record: 75°, 1943)
Sterling, VA: 80° (old record: 70°, 1997) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 79°, 2/24/1985)***
Syracuse: 75° (old record: 65°, 1953 and 1997) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 71°, 2/24/2017)***
Teterboro: 83° (old record: 65°, 1997) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 74°, 2/24/2017)***
Washington, DC: 82° (old record: 75°, 1953)
White Plains: 77° (old record: 61°, 2002) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 75°, 2/24/1985)***
Wilmington, DE: 78° (old record: 73°, 1953) ***Tied All-Time February Record from 2/25/1930 and 2/24/1985***
Worcester: 71° (old record: 59°, 1930) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 69°, 2/24/2017)***

Teterboro was the hot spot in the region with a high temperature of 83°.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

True. I was going with perennials that’s a small tree/shrub 

 

I just had an incredible experience here in the city. I was walking down Broadway and it was still in the 70s as I turned the corner on 116th was hit by a cool breeze. Almost felt like waking into a walk in fridge. There had to be a 20 degree temp difference. I think it may have been from the wind shift to off the Hudson which is only 2 blocks west 

I had something like that happen when I walked into the subway around 5. Felt like walking into a building with AC on. Got home and noticed the gladiolus in my back yard are coming up. Then took the dog for a walk in the woods across the street- heard some kind of insects/amphibians making noise. I don’t know what they are, but I know they come out every spring and this is at least a full month before I would normally hear them.  

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Noticeably warmer in Long Beach now that the wind switched to NW. JFK spiked up 11 degrees once the winds flipped. Happens often when a cold front from the NW comes through in spring and all the warm air from the city comes in. 

I went up 6 degrees. But dropped 6 degrees since then.  

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The February 27, 1930 edition of the Penn Yan <i>Chronicle-Express</i> reported:

Bluebirds, Redwing blackbirds and robins were seen in various parts of Yates County last week and the first of this week during the extraordinarily early spring weather. A Norway maple, located at the corner of Liberty street and North avenue in Penn Yan, was in blossom Monday [February 24] and was alive with hundreds of honey bees.

The remarkable warmth of that February, which culminated in New York City's 75° reading on February 25 just ahead of an advancing cold front, was eclipsed by even greater warmth yesterday. Under bright sunshine and temperatures more typical of early June than late February, the Witch Hazel blossoms were humming with bees and other visiting insects, robins were seen all across the Garden’s grounds, and red-winged blackbirds were heard in the New York Botanical Garden. In other parts of the New York City area, turtles sunbathed on warm rocks.

Yesterday’s historic warmth has now given way to more typical, albeit still milder than normal, February weather. Before then, all-time monthly high temperature records were set across much of the region yesterday, except for the Connecticut shore and Long Island where fog and clouds hung on tenaciously through much of the day. At Newark, the temperature soared to 80°, the earliest such occurrence on record. The prior earliest such temperature occurred on March 9, 2016 when the temperature reached 82°. Teterboro sizzled at 83°.

Highlights included:

Bridgeport: 67° (old record: 59°, 2002) ***Tied All-Time February Record from 2/28/1976 and 2/27/1997***
Danbury: 77° (tied the monthly record set on 2/16/1954)
Hartford: 77° (previous February record: 73°, 2/24/1985)
Newark: 80° (previous February record: 76°, 2/15/1949)
New York City:
…LGA: 79° (previous February record: 74°, 2/15/1949)
…NYC: 78° (previous February record: 75°, 2/25/1930 and 2/24/1985)
Poughkeepsie: 76° (previous February record: 73°, 2/28/1997 and 2/24/2017)
Teterboro: 83° (previous February record: 74°, 2/24/2017)
White Plains: 77° (previous February record: 75°, 2/24/1985)

The frequency of 70° days during meteorological winter has been increasing during recent decades in New York City. For the entire 1869-2018 record, such days occurred on average once every 6.3 years. Prior to 1950, they occurred once every 16.2 years. Since 1950, they occurred once every 3.6 years. Since 1980, their frequency increased to once every 2.4 years. Since 2010, they have been occurring once every 2.3 years. Half of New York City’s 70° days during meteorological winter have occurred after 1989.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/21 40.6° (6.0° above normal)
2/28 41.5°-42.8° (2/21 estimate: 41.2°-42.7°)

The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°.

Through February 21, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is running ahead of those of the two warmest Februaries on record.

2/1-21 Average Temperature:

2012: 39.7° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record)
2017: 38.4° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record)
2018: 40.6°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 82% (2/21 estimate: 81%). The probability of a record warm February has increased to approximately 56%.

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Last 7 days of Feb. averaging 48degs., or 12degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.0.   Should end @  +7.3   Next 8 days also averaging 47deg.

I got to 75 yesterday, and I am less than a 1000 feet from the ocean.  There was no sea breeze, but maybe a conductive effect with the 45deg. water, knocked a few degrees off.

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Record Temperatures for February 21, 2018 (Final Figures):

 Albany: 73° (old record: 65°, 1981)
 Allentown: 81° (old record: 67°, 1930 and 1953) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 77°, 2/24/2017)***
 Atlantic City: 76° (old record: 67°, 1994 and 2016) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 75°, 2/24/1985)***
 Baltimore: 79° (old record: 74°, 1930)
 Binghamton: 69° (old record: 61°, 1953)
 Boston: 72° (old record: 63°, 1906)
 Bridgeport: 67° (old record: 59°, 2002) ***Tied All-Time February Record from 2/28/1976 and 2/27/1997***
 Burlington: 69° (old record: 59°, 1981)
 Caribou: 51° (old record: 50°, 1994)
 Concord: 74° (old record: 64°, 1872) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 69°, 2/24/2017)***
 Danbury: 77° (old record: 64°, 1953) ***Tied All-Time February Record set on 2/16/1954***
 Harrisburg: 79°, (old record: 71°, 1997) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 78°, 2/27/1997)***
 Hartford: 77° (old record: 63°, 1930) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 73°, 2/24/1985)***
 New Haven: 65° (old record: 58°, 2002)
 New York City:
…JFK: 65° (old record: 63°, 2002)
…LGA: 79° (old record: 68°, 1953) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 74°, 2/15/1949)***
…NYC: 78° (old record: 68°, 1930)***New All-Time February Record (old record: 75°, 2/25/1930 and 2/24/1985)***
 Newark: 80° (old record: 69°, 1953) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 76°, 2/15/1949)***
 Philadelphia: 77° (old record: 72°, 1930)
 Portland: 68° (old record: 59°, 1953) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 64°, 2/27/1957)
 Poughkeepsie: 76° (old record: 67°, 1953) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 73°, 2/28/1997 and 2/24/2017)***
 Providence: 64° (old record: 63°, 1930)
 Richmond: 80° (old record: 75°, 1930)
 Salisbury: 76° (old record: 75°, 1943)
 Sterling, VA: 80° (old record: 70°, 1997) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 79°, 2/24/1985)***
 Syracuse: 75° (old record: 65°, 1953 and 1997) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 71°, 2/24/2017)***
 Teterboro: 83° (old record: 65°, 1997) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 74°, 2/24/2017)***
 Washington, DC: 82° (old record: 75°, 1953)
 Westhampton: 60° (old record: 59°, 2002)
 White Plains: 77° (old record: 61°, 2002) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 75°, 2/24/1985)***
 Wilmington, DE: 78° (old record: 73°, 1953) ***Tied All-Time February Record from 2/25/1930 and 2/24/1985***
 Worcester: 71° (old record: 59°, 1930) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 69°, 2/24/2017)***

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EPS and GEFS continue with the records NAO block. AO also steadily negative. Both models suites have the PNA around neutral (GEFS slightly positive and EPS slightly negative)

EPS now has the EPO turning sharply negative (- 3.5) around the 1st of the month. GEFS turns the EPO negative as well, however to a lesser extent (-1.5).

IF we do not score a snowstorm in the 1st half of March it will not be due to "lack of cold air" or obviously "lack of blocking", it will be due to too much blocking or purely bad luck. I can see a scenario where the MA scores big and we are north.

I am ready for summer.

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18 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

Don, should this be concerning? 

The frequency of extreme outcomes (3σ) has been increasing. Yesterday's high temperature in Central Park was 3.6σ above the February 1981-2010 average maximum temperature. 3σ high temperature events had a return time of abut once every 27.0 years prior to 1950. Since 1950, the return time has fallen to once every 23.0 years. Since 1980, it has been about once every 13.0 years.

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