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Jan 16/17 light snow event.


clskinsfan
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33 minutes ago, stormy said:

You accurately demonstrate your mentality........ Drought occurs in both winter and summer regardless of your understanding. 3 inches of snow is helpless to mitigate a drought.

Lol yea please educate me. 

Perhaps I'm focused on something else. You seem to have a one track mind. I bet if everyone gets 6" of snow tomorrow they will be happy regardless of the effect it has on the water table. 

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14 minutes ago, stormy said:

I am happy that you don't see any drought. In fact the AHPS analysis reveals 25 - 50% of normal precipitation during the last 30 - 90 days. What does that say to you???

It's been dry. No one is disputing that but your trying to turn a very minor thing that belongs buried on page 11 (the lowest level of drought designation) into some front page story 

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Why are you all talking about a drought in the thread about tomorrow's snowfail?  

In a precipitation drought, little falls. A drought breeds drought including snowfall.  The 90 day precip. over much of this region is less than 50%. Why is this?? Can you tell me? I have looked at many predictions from the CPC and models during the past 60 days and they were all wrong. Can you enlighten me????

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3 minutes ago, stormy said:

In a precipitation drought, little falls. A drought breeds drought including snowfall.  The 90 day precip. over much of this region is less than 50%. Why is this?? Can you tell me? I have looked at many predictions from the CPC and models during the past 60 days and they were all wrong. Can you enlighten me????

Seriously go start a thread. 

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

drought talk is a little overblown in winter where precip is usually less anyway.  i was actually impressed with the torrential downpours we had the other day.  even saw some lightning.  it's a dry pattern, but eh...it's not like we're in a desert.

drought talk in here is always overblown

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48 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

"Normal" precipitation is just an average.  Statistics are a great thing except when they are twisted and misinterpreted to make a silly point.  If we average 5 inches of precipitation in a given month and we get 1 inch of precipitation its just the weather doing what the weather does.  Its variable.  It changes.  If you want to talk about ways to prepare for drought that's fine.  But saying we are at X% of Y normal precipitation is completely meaningless.  There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Precipitation is but one component; in fact there are the following components that factor into the drought assessment: 

  1. Precipitation
  2. Stream Flow
  3. Reservoir Levels
  4. Temperature and Evaporative demand
  5. Soil Moisture
  6. Vegetative health
  7. Wildfire conditions
  8. Drought Impact Reports
  9. Expert Local Input     

Take this handy tutorial, you might learn something :http://drought.unl.edu/archive/Tutorials/USDM_Tutorial/

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Seriously go start a thread. 

A thread on this board is not important. This board is only reactive to populist belief.

LOL I shouldn't have to start a thread, it should be obvious to intelligent folks like yourself, But, it is not. Your seem to be a false prophet.  Please prove me wrong with the real time statistics from the USDM  that show us approaching a serious drought. Can you really believe that less than 50% of normal precip. in 90 days is not significant?? If you do, you are not to be taken seriously.

This situation can be reversed next week, but today, it is what it is.

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6 minutes ago, Qaanaaq said:

Precipitation is but one component; in fact there are the following components that factor into the drought assessment: 

  1. Precipitation
  2. Stream Flow
  3. Reservoir Levels
  4. Temperature and Evaporative demand
  5. Soil Moisture
  6. Vegetative health
  7. Wildfire conditions
  8. Drought Impact Reports
  9. Expert Local Input     

Take this handy tutorial, you might learn something :http://drought.unl.edu/archive/Tutorials/USDM_Tutorial/

Honestly, lets put our focus back on snow and the threat tis thread was intended to track.  I just think drought is a manmade phenomenon.  And your list of 9 factors just reinforces my point.  I think everyone on this forum can reasonably detect when there is a drought worth talking about.  Seems like I'm spiraling into banter.  You might learn something by not being so pompous about your vast drought knowledge.  MBY better get Nam'd or all this drought BS was for nothing.

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If it's ok to talk about snow ITT, I'd put my O/U numbers (pending tonight's 0z NAMing and Euro flurries):

BWI: 1"

IAD: 1"

DCA: 0.5"

MBY: 1.3"

Hoffman: 2.8"

Mappy: 2.5"

RIC: 2"

Funchester: 0.7"

I see I missed a lot today. A cold smoke cartopper. Where can I leave my bucket of tears? Leesburg have a drop off?  I’ll swing by on my dog sled tomorrow and make deposit.

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If it's ok to talk about snow ITT, I'd put my O/U numbers (pending tonight's 0z NAMing and Euro flurries):

BWI: 1"

IAD: 1"

DCA: 0.5"

MBY: 1.3"

Hoffman: 2.8"

Mappy: 2.5"

RIC: 2"

Funchester: 0.7"

Thanks for getting back on topic! I’ll throw in a guess for EZF at 1.2”. Would be biggest storm so far for here....

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12 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said:

Wait a gosh darn second.  What kind of crazy upside down world do we live in?  Is DT actually huggin the GFS?
 

IMAGE #2 is the 18z GFS it has a bit MORE snoW over north central NC into s outh central VA ... and matches my 1st GUESS 
ap very well.

dt.PNG

So 2 inches for DCA then using his logic lol

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