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BullCityWx

Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

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25 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

So what does it mean when the ULL closes off?

Means that the upper wave is stronger (deeper) and slowing down, with more upper dynamics to support rising motion and precip generation. Visually you see it as a closed contour on the charts

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Means that the upper wave is stronger (deeper) and slowing down, with more upper dynamics to support rising motion and precip generation. Visually you see it as a closed contour on the charts

Thank you for a very understandable response. So when it closes off, that means better for those of us looking for higher precip totals?

 

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EURO/NAM is a good look aloft (500mb) for your standard/stock moderate to significant winterstorm in NC. (3 to 5 inch type storm). 

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1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

EURO/NAM is a good look aloft (500mb) for your standard/stock moderate to significant winterstorm in NC. (3 to 5 inch type storm). 

Could be fairly widespread with that look too.....might not get all 100 counties with accumulating snow but its probably the best look for a event to do that in a while....

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7 minutes ago, Red1976Red said:

um just glancing at 2 meter temps on euro i would be worried about that raleigh to just east of charlotte. 

and i don't see where "high ratios" would be anywhere close to Piedmont Triad...correct me if I am wrong please. 

well, given that the kuchera maps show higher totals than the standard 10:1 tell you all you need to know on that one. 

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Where's the blue turd? We need to pull this sucker in so I can try out my new (to me) Land Cruiser. I didn't get it until last weekend and roads were pretty clear. This sucker is full time 4WD and I want to play. LOL

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3 minutes ago, Red1976Red said:

um just glancing at 2 meter temps on euro i would be worried about that raleigh to just east of charlotte. 

and i don't see where "high ratios" would be anywhere close to Piedmont Triad...correct me if I am wrong please. 

With this type of system, temps will drop once precip starts. Many of us will/may see a start as rain/mix, but it should quickly switch over as long as rates increase like the euro depicts. This would be true all the way to the coast, especially the NE. 

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

With this type of system, temps will drop once precip starts. Many of us will/may see a start as rain/mix, but it should quickly switch over as long as rates increase like the euro depicts. This would be true all the way to the coast, especially the NE. 

I understand the logic, but I went through the euro run and watched the temperatures as the 6 hour round of moisture exited. Just didn't show it to my eyes unless I overlooked something. Temps really only dropped mountains/foothills, they actually went UP near Raleigh, etc. If there was more moisture than modeled for a longer duration, I could see the potential there on the back side esp west. 

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The Euro is sort of on its own across parts of GA and upstate SC.  Most other guidance really has nothing.  The 0.07 at Atlanta is like a blizzard compared to everything else other than the NAM 

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the real world water vapor loop of the west shows a MUCH HIGHER ridge in the west and a steeper drop on the east side of that ridge.......the ridge was down around oregon a few days ago now it reaches way up into canada

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2 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

These are the soundings for Elizabeth City during the event. Can someone who is more knowledgeable please decipher this?248102e5792499bdabe39e2216768d39.jpg

Your fine there doc. All 3 lines left of the sloping 0c line

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4 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

These are the soundings for Elizabeth City during the event. Can someone who is more knowledgeable please decipher this?248102e5792499bdabe39e2216768d39.jpg

It’s a snow sounding but I doubt those are dendrites given the lack of saturation in the dendritic growth zone, probably plates.

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It’s a snow sounding but I doubt those are dendrites given the lack of saturation in the dendritic growth zone, probably plates.
I'm going to buy some collegiate meteorology texts. I'm going to learn how to read this stuff. I've already got a BS in Fire Science. The science shouldn't be too difficult for me. LOL
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