#NoPoles Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What an extended pants tent. Tough to remain non-nude. Easy now buddy, don't want to stress those lungs...you should be focused on getting your strength back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, #NoPoles said: Easy now buddy, don't want to stress those lungs...you should be focused on getting your strength back That look is enough to turn me into the Hulk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 And Kevin is correct. Including today, 3 events over the next 7-8 days potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: And Kevin is correct. Including today, 3 events over the next 7-8 days potentially. Are you sure you’re not delirious from the illness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, mreaves said: Are you sure you’re not delirious from the illness? Perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And Kevin is correct. Including today, 3 events over the next 7-8 days potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And Kevin is correct. Including today, 3 events over the next 7-8 days potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Friday is turning into a fupa, awt. But it should fancy those that enjoy 1-2” of festive feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I’ve been following DEN and over the past few days you can see the correction east in the ridge/trof alignment. MEX has added 10+ to the highs Thursday and any snow idea is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’ve been following DEN and over the past few days you can see the correction east in the ridge/trof alignment. MEX has added 10+ to the highs Thursday and any snow idea is gone. Here's hoping their loss is our gain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 21 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’ve been following DEN and over the past few days you can see the correction east in the ridge/trof alignment. MEX has added 10+ to the highs Thursday and any snow idea is gone. OMG I got worried until mreaves pointed out that DEN was Denver! I thought is was some sort of model or something and that our snow and cold chances were decreasing. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Friday is turning into a fupa, awt. But it should fancy those that enjoy 1-2” of festive feelings. Chances are their in this pattern but right now I don't really see anything for WNE to be too excited about in the next 10days. Things can change of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 Relative to that flow appeal ...and probably measurably so at that ... the 850 mb temperature spread south of ~ the 40th parallel remains remarkably mild .. interesting. You can really see that in the Euro's end frames. Not a testament to it's verification, no... but, the D10 look and the 850 mb t layout don't really match well with the "climatology of that appeal" - if there could ever be such a metric...heh. Simply put ..it's like the model's are hinting at running us through a highly amplified pattern while managing to somehow keep the cold bottled in Canada. I mean it does come down in these transient plumes and lobes but they roll out. We don't really see a big arctic dump south of the border despite the mid and extended range. And that appears to be the case in all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Chances are their in this pattern but right now I don't really see anything for WNE to be too excited about in the next 10days. Things can change of course... wut? Ens and OP mean are 10 plus inches for you? too many IPAs last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: wut? Ens and OP mean are 10 plus inches for you? too many IPAs last night? No idea what they are referring to. Much guidance gives W areas warning snow Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Not sure about warning. Probably sub warning Friday with the anal. But something in the cards Sunday-Monday. Ptype to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Doesn't look very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, scoob40 said: Doesn't look very impressive. Those 7 days forecast for that channel change every day. Just watch the models, a little snow on Friday with something Sunday- Monday is looking likely as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure about warning. Probably sub warning Friday with the anal. But something in the cards Sunday-Monday. Ptype to be determined. Oh boy. Just gonna leave that there. Ellen Ferrara has fainted, needs medical attention stat ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 The MJO is going nuts though... It should constructively wave interfere with the pattern changes/expectations going forward. Powerful in phase 6 and progged to surge forward in similar prominence through phase 7 ... upon entering this latter phase, the correlation over N/A abruptly changes (to put it nicely) (-WPO/+PNA/-EPO)/enhancing AA phase of the N-Pacific arc... That's code for cold as hell for the central and eastern U.S. ...prooobably timed for post the 10th of the month, give or take. Though that may be getting late for truly deep arctic phenomenon by climatologically. Numbing enough though... We'll see how it breaks. I just posted how the dailies in the models are doing everything in their power to limit cold much beneath the middle latitudes over N/A...but, they are obviously more likely not registering a constructive wave interference/tropical forcing input just yet. May yet see the dailies change.. I've always maintained that the MJO is a pattern augmenter; not a pattern drive. Well... that augmentation is in constructive interference moving forward, and is therefore worth discussion I think. That should add to this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The MJO is going nuts though... It should constructively wave interfere with the pattern changes/expectations going forward. Powerful in phase 6 and progged to surge forward in similar prominence through phase 7 ... upon entering this latter phase, the correlation over N/A abruptly changes (to put it nicely) (-WPO/+PNA/-EPO)/enhancing AA phase of the N-Pacific arc... That's code for cold as hell for the central and eastern U.S. ...prooobably timed for post the 10th of the month, give or take. Though that may be getting late for truly deep arctic phenomenon by climatologically. Numbing enough though... We'll see how it breaks. I just posted how the dailies in the models are doing everything in their power to limit cold much beneath the middle latitudes over N/A...but, they are obviously more likely not registering a constructive wave interference/tropical forcing input just yet. May yet see the dailies change.. I've always maintained that the MJO is a pattern augmenter; not a pattern drive. Well... that augmentation is in constructive interference moving forward, and is therefore worth discussion I think. That should add to this.. Completely agree. For at least 2 maybe 3 weeks...should be wintry. We'll see if this relaxes 2nd half of the month, but if it does...my guess is it will not be abrupt. On a side note, the strat is an ice box. There is no sign of warming or weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure about warning. Probably sub warning Friday with the anal. But something in the cards Sunday-Monday. Ptype to be determined. Do you think the subs need to be warned about that? Probably not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The MJO is going nuts though... It should constructively wave interfere with the pattern changes/expectations going forward. Powerful in phase 6 and progged to surge forward in similar prominence through phase 7 ... upon entering this latter phase, the correlation over N/A abruptly changes (to put it nicely) (-WPO/+PNA/-EPO)/enhancing AA phase of the N-Pacific arc... That's code for cold as hell for the central and eastern U.S. ...prooobably timed for post the 10th of the month, give or take. Though that may be getting late for truly deep arctic phenomenon by climatologically. Numbing enough though... We'll see how it breaks. I just posted how the dailies in the models are doing everything in their power to limit cold much beneath the middle latitudes over N/A...but, they are obviously more likely not registering a constructive wave interference/tropical forcing input just yet. May yet see the dailies change.. I've always maintained that the MJO is a pattern augmenter; not a pattern drive. Well... that augmentation is in constructive interference moving forward, and is therefore worth discussion I think. That should add to this.. Is there a between a strong MJO and a -NAO? Maybe our old friend could make a winter appearance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 With the last 2 failed model snow events, you wonder if Thursday night also ends up way east OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ... On a side note, the strat is an ice box. There is no sign of warming or weakening. and isn't that odd? ..sort of I guess.. It's known there's a correlation with the QBO ... https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAS-3297.1 ... blah blah this and other material abound. But this year 'seems' to just not take advantage of both a weakened solar cycle on top of a favorable phase of the QBO? You'd think there'd evidence of an SSW by now... nothing - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: With the last 2 failed model snow events, you wonder if Thursday night also ends up way east OTS Wait, what about my warning snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 We don't need the PV sitting over our noggins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 hm.. just looking at the QBO numbers... You know, it could be a timing nuance. The 30 MB mode is most definitely negative, but ...the 50 MB sigma is positive, though descending. That latter behavior is normal; the wave tends to begin oscillation in the upper levels, ... then, downward propagation (lag) then realizes the phase changes in the lower levels before the anomaly dissipates... By then, the 30 mb is probably already beginning to reverse... and the cycle repeats in the opposite anomaly ... It may just be that the SSW correlation has some sort of time-lag ... I know that solar minimum and maximum, are both effected differently by the E vs W phase of the QBO.. We are definitely in a solar minimum, and the 50 MB QBO phase is positive ...then falling; erstwhile the 30 MB has been negative for many months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: We don't need the PV sitting over our noggins. After a lousy 2nd half of January I will be furious if February brings record cold and posts congratulating D.C. to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: After a lousy 2nd half of January I will be furious if February brings record cold and posts congratulating D.C. to Philly. this, And i don't want to be congratulating philly starting Sunday either.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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