dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Let's lock that one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah 12z NAM solution is somewhere in between 0z and 6z... despite tick east, spreads the wealth well west of 0z. All with an unambiguous blizzard for eastern SNE Maybe something made multiple 6z models jump. 12z RGEM will be key to see if 6z RGEM was a blip or if the significant 6z west jump is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Let's lock that one in. All around better run with that SLP track, It cut back qpf on the western areas, But expected with a couple tics east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every map needs to taken way way up today I certainly think that western areas may need to get bumped a bit....not sure way up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Ginxy's Death Band wow....really close by.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: wow....really close by.... That's H7 vorticity anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Speaking of ginxy, where is he? He usually is all over this with cool graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Your posts have gotten worse and worse. Hard to believe that was possible. Good luck with 2-4 in W CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think that funky evolutions lead to funky results and those dual convective lows would have me a little nervous if I was forecasting this one. I'd bet on a Euro/GFS blend right now because I think it sneaking a little east is a lot more likely than a NAM solution. But we'll see what happens today. I'd go with a big 6-12'' swath east of a HFD/CEF/ORE arc and then 8-14'' inside 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12z NAM with a crush job for E MA, NH, and ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The NAM is slightly better for the folks worried about mixing. Glad it came off those super amped 6z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: wow....really close by.... so so close but I just keep thinking about three years ago missing by like 20 miles....we can pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The 3k NAM on the other hand is stilly pretty jacked, and mixes a ton. It absolutely crushes WNE with the deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Let's lock that one in. I feel like there are so many NAM runs every winter that jackpot Hillsborough and Rockingham counties with like a foot and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That's a lot of snow for a lot of folks if its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 With that said, 3k nam is nuts with the nw deform band, crushing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 km NAM is less juicy than 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: I need a Harvard BA and an Oxford PHd just to READ your posts Tip........ and then you call yourself an idiot. You're The Man. sorry ... i just meant that if there is a tropospheric folding phenomenon being dragged along wit that jet as it's presently (can be seen...) fisting into the northern Gulf on vapor loops ... that could indicate that a, this thing has more power associated than we may think, but also, ...that entrained stratospheric air into the back side could add some mechanics to total vorticity - which ..okay, that stuff is bit outre but were you around in Dec 2005? ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 That 3km run is tossed until other guidance supports it. Western outlier thus far for the 12z suite. Up next, Reggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 WXBlue has himself a great storm to welcome him to NE ! Get a room at an inn overlooking the ocean and watch it rage tomorrow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3km seems to best handle down south vs current radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: With that said, 3k nam is nuts with the nw deform band, crushing blow. 3k nam still brings the goods out west. hoping against hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Living up in Newburyport this winter. Looking forward to some north shore action. Brings me back to my days in dover NH. Going to be looking reminiscent of 2015 in newburyport after this one. (no parking ban was issued for previous snowfalls, city is a mess) Expecting 1 foot or so from the south shore up on through the north shore, with maybe an 18" lollipop or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: WXBlue has himself a great storm to welcome him to NE ! Get a room at an inn overlooking the ocean and watch it rage tomorrow ! Sounds like a fun idea! But I'll have to settle for a quick drive to the coast and experience few bursts of blizzard conditions if I can! Can't believe I'm about to experience something this wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 long range hrrr-para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: 3k nam still brings the goods out west. hoping against hope... That would be fitting. MehPM and Pouterfreak rewarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Sounds like a fun idea! But I'll have to settle for a quick drive to the coast and experience few bursts of blizzard conditions if I can! Can't believe I'm about to experience something this wild. Your our good luck charm, Hope you don't think this is how it is every year up here............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: Wow, that one smokes us. I still have to wonder about ratios with the wind. Guess it doesn’t much matter in the end! Wind certainly cuts down the ratio, but IMO dendrite formation can be an even bigger factor. The 2 big snows of Dec 2003 show a real contrast. The 6-7 storm had extended blizzard criteria, winds gusting 35-40, and put down 24.0" with 1.63" LE and temps near 20, ratio 14.7-to-1. The event on the 15th came with similar temps, winds gusting into the 20s, and brought 13.0" on 1.53" LE, ratio 8.5-to-1. Despite significantly lesser winds and equivalent temp, the latter storm's ratio was far lower. (Both storms came mainly through the night, so no flake size obs are remembered.) The upcoming event seemingly gets better and better with almost every run. There's usually some backing off at some point. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, tamarack said: Wind certainly cuts down the ratio, but IMO dendrite formation can be an even bigger factor. The 2 big snows of Dec 2003 show a real contrast. The 6-7 storm had extended blizzard criteria, winds gusting 35-40, and put down 24.0" with 1.63" LE and temps near 20, ratio 14.7-to-1. The event on the 15th came with similar temps, winds gusting into the 20s, and brought 13.0" on 1.53" LE, ratio 8.5-to-1. Despite significantly lesser winds and equivalent temp, the latter storm's ratio was far lower. (Both storms came mainly through the night, so no flake size obs are remembered.) The upcoming event seemingly gets better and better with almost every run. There's usually some backing off at some point. We'll see. The line will probably end up just to your south........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: 3k nam still brings the goods out west. hoping against hope... Sign me up for this one local buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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