ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Rgem gets down to 946mb by maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Convective feedback still pulling storm to far east. But every run it closer to coast farther up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: RGEM is wham bam thank you m’am. Quick hitter. It destroys DE Maine...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, bboughton said: The last minute changes to this storm track and the lack of a Blizzard Watch are going to cause people on Eastern MA to not take this as seriously as they should. What was the rationale for doing away with Blizzard watch? I think the rationale is that it is still a winter storm. If you are preparing for a winter storm it could contain all hazards including ice or wind/snow combination. So you just have to read the winter storm watch text now. If we are thinking blizzard conditions, it will say blizzard conditions possible. And blizzard warnings still exist, so there will still be a differentiation at go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Conv messing around with the models I think. Just now, tim123 said: Convective feedback still pulling storm to far east. But every run it closer to coast farther up the coast Both of these seem to be the case. It’s jumping out for no apparent reason...very odd if it’s not the convective feedback phenomenon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAVGEM for whats its worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Both of these seem to be the case. It’s jumping out for no apparent reason...very odd if it’s not the convective feedback phenomenon.. It could be right, but I am stating why we are seeing some jumpy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think part of the problem too with the "jump" is that the forecasts for the low are so strong and deep and there are so many tightly contours its almost impossible for the models to pinpoint exactly where the center is...or what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Convective feedback still pulling storm to far east. But every run it closer to coast farther up the coast The RGEM has been doing that almost every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Man, RGEM hit coastal Maine with two killer bands. The one at HR 48 looks like the best of the bunch. Even the GFS would smoke Pit2 with a nasty band of snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: I think the rationale is that it is still a winter storm. If you are preparing for a winter storm it could contain all hazards including ice or wind/snow combination. So you just have to read the winter storm watch text now. If we are thinking blizzard conditions, it will say blizzard conditions possible. And blizzard warnings still exist, so there will still be a differentiation at go time. I think the average consumer of weather is not reading the somewhat jargon-y text of the warnings and most know a WSW as a moderate snowstorm and a Blizzard as a dangerous snow storm regardless of actual criteria met. Blizzard warnings will be w/in 24 hours here. Doesn’t provide a lot of notice. Especially when your average consumer does not even know about this change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gfs is running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Can someone post the RGEM clownage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Even the GFS would smoke Pit2 with a nasty band of snow verbatim. Maine's cashing in no matter what model you look at. Jeff, Weatherjunky cleaning up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 gfs initialized with a stronger n vort with a tick better troughing compared to its 18z 6hr look at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I could totally see the rgem scenario. A lot more reasonable than 2.5" of QPF over MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can someone post the RGEM clownage? Not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can someone post the RGEM clownage? http://labanimator.cmc.ec.gc.ca/wind/synoptic_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: After going back and read thru this thread today, I think every model has been tossed in one run or another...........lol I wouldnt toss it lol but I’m also not locked in on it like years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, bboughton said: I think the average consumer of weather is not reading the somewhat jargon-y text of the warnings and most know a WSW as a moderate snowstorm and a Blizzard as a dangerous snow storm regardless of actual criteria met. Blizzard warnings will be w/in 24 hours here. Doesn’t provide a lot of notice. Especially when your average consumer does not even know about this change. Actually the average consumer of weather information doesn't know the difference between a watch and a warning, and generally think all snowstorms are blizzards. And our watch/warning products are probably some of our most plain language products we have now. What, where, when, and additional details. I also don't think we live in a world anymore where we'll be the first word on a storm. Most people are going to hear about it long before we issue a watch for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, bboughton said: I think the average consumer of weather is not reading the somewhat jargon-y text of the warnings and most know a WSW as a moderate snowstorm and a Blizzard as a dangerous snow storm regardless of actual criteria met. Blizzard warnings will be w/in 24 hours here. Doesn’t provide a lot of notice. Especially when your average consumer does not even know about this change. I think there’s enough saturation of weather info in the media these days that people don’t need to see the word blizzard to know there’s a storm coming. They tune in to all kinds of media and they will hear all about the potential hazards. Someone who pays no attention to the weather forecasts isn’t going to be swayed to act differently because of terminology. There are plenty of people who stay put in a hurricane because they’re sure it won’t be that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It could be right, but I am stating why we are seeing some jumpy solutions. Oh for sure it could be right. But it could also be wrong just as easily...being it’s not making a lot of sense from what we’re seeing upstairs??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 What the heck is the HRDRPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, bboughton said: I think the average consumer of weather is not reading the somewhat jargon-y text of the warnings and most know a WSW as a moderate snowstorm and a Blizzard as a dangerous snow storm regardless of actual criteria met. Blizzard warnings will be w/in 24 hours here. Doesn’t provide a lot of notice. Especially when your average consumer does not even know about this change. This is why IMO it's up to a forecaster to explain the definitions to people so they start to become more familiar with the terms. I hate dumbing things down for people just b/c they're aren't "Weather savoy". Terms have definitions and definitions are meant for a reason. Don't use the term blizzard just to make the people realize the situation is more extreme...if blizzard conditions may be met...then use the term... if its a really big storm but blizzard criteria is apparent not to be meant...don't use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: What the heck is the HRDRPS? The 2.5 km GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I could see the rgem scenario. A lot happyreasonable than 2.5" of QPF over MA. As long as we dont see globals slide 50miles Se in next 24hrs (From our latitude ,not outer banks) ill be Happy That would be a big issue w acummulations, thankfully this idea is tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can someone post the RGEM clownage? I can't figure out how to save an image on a Mac (advice welcomed). It shows the NE jacks as Foster and Pit2 with about 8-12' inside 495, 4-5 CT up through ORH County; 2-3" west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Oh for sure it could be right. But it could also be wrong just as easily...being it’s not making a lot of sense from what we’re seeing upstairs??? I don't see any real glaring issues on if it's right or wrong...it may be a reason to side with globals for now and see how they trend. More stability there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: The 2.5 km GEM pretty soon we'll be running sub 1km grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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