Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: It can't get any better than this run. Not true. I remember it popped 70"+ on one run before Feb '13. Just wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Like MPM west or HubbDave west? Esp you, but perhaps out to MPM..at least on the NAM. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Yeah RPM is doing the RPM thing, wild swings with each run, here you go Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: Not true. I remember it popped 70"+ on one run before Feb '13. Just wait. Never Forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I dropped a 20-bomb on my first call and and thinking long and hard about where I go from here. You don't need a lot of time to get stupid in a system of this ilk. I can certainly see it up your way. I think the max potential we're looking at in this system if things play right is like 18-24'' with maybe some 26'' totals? Back my way I'm just way too torn to attempt a map. I can see something like 3-6'' or even 12-18'' if it became apparent great banding set up this way. I'm hoping 0z runs will offer a bit more confidence in how to hedge. These systems are just a mess to try and explain to folks...I feel for TV meteorologists in this case b/c they're limited with on air time...luckily there is blogging now and facebook live and things of that nature to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Not true. I remember it popped 70"+ on one run before Feb '13. Just wait. I was LITTERALLY Just talking to someone about the 70"+ Amounts in 2013 to someone 5 minutes ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Never Forget Funniest thing about that to me is it shows my folks' place in Hamden getting a foot, and they were actually closer to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Not true. I remember it popped 70"+ on one run before Feb '13. Just wait. Yet his handle says 78 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Great post. I believe Scott has mentioned the whole shredded dendrites in wind issue is often overblown. Thanks. It's a tough one. It probably is overblown to some extent. Not sure exactly how much research has been done into this but there probably is some sort of threshold in which when winds reach a certain level they can start having an influence on dendrites. I would also think the wind is more likely to rip them apart when you're dealing with the real fluffy snow...the high ratio type stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 You can count on a feb 13 like band dropping 4-6” hr rates, the fronto stuff shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Thanks. It's a tough one. It probably is overblown to some extent. Not sure exactly how much research has been done into this but there probably is some sort of threshold in which when winds reach a certain level they can start having an influence on dendrites. I would also think the wind is more likely to rip them apart when you're dealing with the real fluffy snow...the high ratio type stuff It's more of the dendrites hitting the ground, smashing, and then being dragged across..thus ruining ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So where is James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Thanks. It's a tough one. It probably is overblown to some extent. Not sure exactly how much research has been done into this but there probably is some sort of threshold in which when winds reach a certain level they can start having an influence on dendrites. I would also think the wind is more likely to rip them apart when you're dealing with the real fluffy snow...the high ratio type stuff Could be. Certainly seemed to be the case for me on Boxing Day. Windiest nor'easter I've seen, and nothing but dense baking soda/sand, but I don't know if that's just bad snow growth or the smashing issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can count on a feb 13 like band dropping 4-6” hr rates, the fronto stuff shows this. What do the latest fronto maps show now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: So where is James? Preparing for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can count on a feb 13 like band dropping 4-6” hr rates, the fronto stuff shows this. I agree. I think one sick CF spot in eastern Ma, with another somewhere out around ORH and down through eastern CT. Maybe central CT if this comes in hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The last minute changes to this storm track and the lack of a Blizzard Watch are going to cause people on Eastern MA to not take this as seriously as they should. What was the rationale for doing away with Blizzard watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's more of the dendrites hitting the ground, smashing, and then being dragged across..thus ruining ratios. ahhh thanks...wow I always looked at that completely wrong. I thought the influence was more aloft than the surface. This explains why I was confused when doing some analysis stuff and see such intense winds aloft but still reading about crazy ratios lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Quote Think the RGEM is a tiny tick west than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Funniest thing about that to me is it shows my folks' place in Hamden getting a foot, and they were actually closer to 40. I live in Ansonia near the Woodbridge line. That storm was epic! Being most fell over night we pulled an almost all night we watching the snow fall or dump. Plows broke and couldn’t handle or keep up with the snow. Our town went down to I believe 1-2 town plows. The one town vehicle that ended up being our emergency vehicle was the h-1 hummer. http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/2013/05/14/its-official-ansonia-smashes-state-24-hour-snowfall-record/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Funny, I could hear the Americanwx "new post" audio notification in the background on Ryan's FB live...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, weatherwiz said: ahhh thanks...wow I always looked at that completely wrong. I thought the influence was more aloft than the surface. This explains why I was confused when doing some analysis stuff and see such intense winds aloft but still reading about crazy ratios lol Perhaps insane winds could? But I think dendrites are held together well. Then tend to go with the wind. Might be some good chem bonding keeping them together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Funny, I could hear the Americanwx "new post" audio notification in the background on Ryan's FB live...lol There's audio? Never heard it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: That's not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Could be. Certainly seemed to be the case for me on Boxing Day. Windiest nor'easter I've seen, and nothing but dense baking soda/sand. What a maddening storm. But that storm too remember had a very low pressure and I think after many wondered if b/c of that the precipitation was more band-like as opposed to a shield of widespread precipitation. (I mentioned this in my blog post). That would really complicate things b/c you'll have bands of heavy snows but then in between you'll suck on subsidence like a cheap cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: There's audio? Never heard it The "boing" it makes when a new post has been made and your window is open... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So it looks like the GFS Bufkit files are not accumulating precipitation correctly. Meaning all snowfall estimates are wrong as well. And the problem may have started in July () when they upgraded the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: So it looks like the GFS Bufkit files are not accumulating precipitation correctly. Meaning all snowfall estimates are wrong as well. And the problem may have started in July () when they upgraded the GFS. Who needs that anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 To be quite honest (and not because it shows my area with 17 inches), but the 3k NAM looks more like what you would expect from a system of this type as far as distribution of snowfall amounts..much more uniform instead of a big hole in the middle, with a lot south of the area, and a lot in the east. Distribution Kind of doesn’t make sense if this thing is still strengthening as it is coming up.. and Hoth is correct...we were in the least amount forecasted for Feb 13..and the area was one of the jackpots with 30-40 inch amounts...when at the start of the storm we were forecasted to get 10-15. Those are the good busts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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