dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Kidding aside...if they are west again that must mean the NMB members are starting to come on board because almost every ARW member was amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: FWIW ( not much )--21Z SREFs are more robust vs 15Z. Jerry, I want to see MOS start throwing out some big numbers again at 00z. 4s, 6s and 8s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, mahk_webstah said: isn't this like the 5th sref run in a row that has increased? Yea but it always is. Once in a while it scores one for the road team though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: In the trashcan. Yeah, not even worth recycling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Briefly....what are the SREF's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 One member gives me 40 inches.. Ill lock that in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Kidding aside...if they are west again that must mean the NMB members are starting to come on board because almost every ARW member was amped up. Seems like the really west ARWs calmed down a little and the NMB got a lot more hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WintersComing said: Briefly....what are the SREF's? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: In the trashcan. C'mon now... its not that bad . You are blending in two extremes...the ARW which are amp crazy and the NMM camp which are always so suppressed. I mean, look at this consistency from the latest run. You have the ARW runs bringing 1"+ QPF as far west as BTV and the one on the left even has 1.5" QPF in Syracuse. Then the NMM runs bring it back to earth. Just blend these two camps and you have the SREFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The mean plume for ORH is close to 15” We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Kidding aside...if they are west again that must mean the NMB members are starting to come on board because almost every ARW member was amped up. Removing ARW members, the mean QPF of NMB members still increased. 0.52" to 0.64" for PSM. 0.68" to 0.85" for BOS. 0.45" to 0.62" for PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, klw said: One factor to remember with this and all other storms this season is that this is my winter and everyone else is just living in it. All the snow stolen over the past decade is being returned, all the whiffs and underperformers of yore are all being whiped clean. It is my season and all of the snow shall be mine. All the clippers over perform, the coastals give me a deform band, te cold is unrelenting, the cutters slide trend south, and the pack grows evermore! I am only half joking. Question: why is no one talking about the Swiss model any more? Welcome to the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Jerry, I want to see MOS start throwing out some big numbers again at 00z. 4s, 6s and 8s 12z MEX had me 4+1 so if the trend is real, that seems like a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4+8 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: C'mon now... its not that bad . You are blending in two extremes...the ARW which are amp crazy and the NMM camp which are always so suppressed. I mean, look at this consistency from the latest run. You have the ARW runs bringing 1"+ QPF as far west as BTV and the one on the left even has 1.5" QPF in Syracuse. Then the NMM runs bring it back to earth. Just blend these two camps and you have the SREFS! Western weenies are going to need to start seeing some bigger movement. Having the CMC, RPM, and SREFs on your team is like trying to win the super bowl with the Browns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Nam just started... Hoping for a west trend with 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: 4+8 here Jeff-you may be in a good spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 4+8 here 4+1 or 2+1 depending if I go with ORH or FIT blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Jeff-you may be in a good spot for this one. We will see Jerry, I don't need this to go very far west to get the goods, Right now it looks to be a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 4+1 or 2+1 depending if I go with ORH or FIT blah You're going to need more help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Western weenies are going to need to start seeing some bigger movement. Having the CMC, RPM, and SREFs on your team is like trying to win the super bowl with the Browns. Or with Nick Foles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This is a High intensity cyclone Not down there 33 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Honestly don't remember that storm... but yeah ocean storms can have incredible imagery. Like I said, regardless of track it will look like a beaut. Messenger and I were the only ones that hadn't given up tracking it. Him because of his location and me because I'm a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Harvey’s twitter suggest a strong chance of plowable or higher in eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Western weenies are going to need to start seeing some bigger movement. Having the CMC, RPM, and SREFs on your team is like trying to win the super bowl with the Browns. Oh this was over a long time ago, IMO. Most knew the western half of New England was a long shot for good advisory and warning snows...the Eastern sections are always weary of it, just like western sections are weary of the eastern tracks. But this has had eastern New England written on it for days. I've been on the BOS train with this storm for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: You're going to need more help. You should clean up... like most storms this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Western weenies are going to need to start seeing some bigger movement. Having the CMC, RPM, and SREFs on your team is like trying to win the super bowl with the Browns. Yeah you need to start seeing some higher skill models come on board. If you are like CT valley and west down here and maybe close to your area and NW up there. Browns might be a bit harsh...once in a while the NAM/Rpm score the coup...prob more like the Bills running the table this year in the playoffs. I still think this southern stream is going to tuck in closer to the northern stream than the globals show. This might be a good storm for the non-hydrostatic models with that ridiculous amount of tropical convection. You still trust the globals at this time lead but if we get to around 36-48 hours out and we have a model war, I'm prob going to lean toward that Rgem/NAM camp if they are on the same team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Harvey’s twitter suggest a strong chance of plowable or higher in eastern MA. Really going out on a limb there, haha. The chance of plowable (2-3"+) in eastern Mass is nearing 100%. Even if worse case scenario it takes you 12 hours to get 3"... you'll be plowing at worst case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Huh? The chance of plowable (2-3"+) in eastern Mass is nearing 100%. Even if worse case scenario it takes you 12 hours to get 3"... you'll be plowing at worst case. Yeah that means very little to me lol... they plowed the 1” on Christmas. The threshold for plowable used to be a couple inches now it seems like whenever it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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