CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Torch incoming. Winter on hold after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Torch incoming. Winter on hold after next week. You're a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 That is an all out furnace on the EPS in the post-D12 LR....might sneak in a cutter too at D7 before a temporary cooldown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That is an all out furnace on the EPS in the post-D12 LR....might sneak in a cutter too at D7 before a temporary cooldown. Xmas was supposed to be too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Doubt it Sucks but we Pac puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Xmas was supposed to be too Been a great run so far. I will take a brief thaw if it means a nice February re-load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Cold Miser said: Been a great run so far. I will take a brief thaw if it means a nice February re-load. I think the thaw as Tip said is just a few days of near or slightly above. It’s not long lasting at all with -epoEPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Xmas was supposed to be too Yeah but we never lost the big -EPO in the LR during that cutter-that-wasn't....we knew it was very temporary if it happened. The whole hemisheric pattern goes against us by mid month. Hopefully it gets muted somewhat, but I'd be surprised if we didn't see a pretty good thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah but we never lost the big -EPO in the LR during that cutter-that-wasn't....we knew it was very temporary if it happened. The whole hemisheric pattern goes against us by mid month. Hopefully it gets muted somewhat, but I'd be surprised if we didn't see a pretty good thaw. This. Winter goes interesting hiding for a spell. Hopefully we reload for a rocking February but it isn’t yet evident one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: This. Winter goes interesting hiding for a spell. Hopefully we reload for a rocking February but it isn’t yet evident one way or another. Typically the type of blocking we have already seen is a good indicator that it will return later...it was pretty extreme. But obviously it doesn't always happen. La Nina is usually not friendly to February.....but again, we can find exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Typically the type of blocking we have already seen is a good indicator that it will return later...it was pretty extreme. But obviously it doesn't always happen. La Nina is usually not friendly to February.....but again, we can find exceptions. Ventrice posted about disruptions to the SPV in late Jan early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 How's the LR looking past thaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 They could be right Kevin... I'm not arguing (necessarily) against a more meaningful warm up .. .but, the GEF's derivatives don't really support it very well. They do offer suggestion for warming, but with a robust return to positive PNA D7-12 as it is progged at both agencies... combine with an EPO that is actually pushing off the mode change every night, that means the EPS may be at conflict with the GEFs. So, 'perhaps' it will come down to which is more believable ... If one is EPS reliant ..well, there you go... sounds like folks are. Okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 By the way ... that trough pushing onshore out west D2 ...I'd watch that... It's not entire certain how much of the southern end of that thing is being perfectly sampled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: By the way ... that trough pushing onshore out west D2 ...I'd watch that... It's not entire certain how much of the southern end of that thing is being perfectly sampled... That's the southern energy involved with the Monday night threat right? I'm surprised no one mentioned anything about that today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Xmas was supposed to be too Oh well...it was a good winter. Time to let it go. At least we had a snowier Dec 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: That's the southern energy involved with the Monday night threat right? I'm surprised no one mentioned anything about that today. yeah, I don't know if "threat" is the right adjective but ... for lack of better word. The CMC was a bit more robust with that evolution and of course it's the least reliable mid range tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 man, ... in the world of modeling, this is like the winter of late mid range ice bombs - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, I don't know if "threat" is the right adjective but ... for lack of better word. The CMC was a bit more robust with that evolution and of course it's the least reliable mid range tool. Wasn't it showing a hit for this last storm while others showed a graze? Your point still stands though. Euro last night looked pretty good but today was not quite as amplified. Seems we'll have to trend the northern stream a lot deeper to get something sizable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Sucks but we Pac puke. The pig showing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 wait, are you warmistas talking about week three? ... no personal deterministic views that far out, save for general concepts. the pattern is transitioning... to what, I think we don't know. It may be very warm, or it may be more modest, but I suspect the winter reloads before exit - and i still suspect it will exit early. perhaps ruining February for many. that's based purely on timing pattern residence against the backdrop Nina climo for early springs. those two appear to be overlapping in timing. so..low skill but, just imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: By the way ... that trough pushing onshore out west D2 ...I'd watch that... It's not entire certain how much of the southern end of that thing is being perfectly sampled... Monday is the next day to watch for some wintry weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 57 minutes ago, Hoth said: The pig showing up? It's just ridging in the east through week 4 at least thanks to troughing from AK into PAC NW. Might ease by wee 4. Not to say we can't have a winter storm or two, but enjoy the snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Monday is the next day to watch for some wintry weather We have a thread for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Torch incoming. Winter on hold after next week. We sping next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: We sping next weekend. GFS would like to bring an ice storm to much of CNE/NNE that weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Torch incoming. Winter on hold after next week. Man, everything has really gone according to plan....should that continue, it will really pick up again late in the season. Not to say that we can't get some good storms mid seasons....advantage of having a meh pattern during mid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 I'd be absolutely stunned if this insane EPO blocking did not reoccur later this season...but until then, we PAC jet. Doesn't have to mean another blockbuster, but if it does, I favor March 1-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 i say many times wont warm up like weather models say always gets cut down lot from week to two days to nothing for sne area. i wouldnt be surprise if we get snowstorm or icestorm during the warm up that models say . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, blizzard24 said: i say many times wont warm up like weather models say always gets cut down lot from week to two days to nothing for sne area. i wouldnt be surprise if we get snowstorm or icestorm during the warm up that models say . lol. Good to see that you have a determined mind set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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