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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This run GFS oper. is kind of a nice paradigm for how gradient and related velocity saturation is stopping cyclogenesis, ...and/or in a mimimum, effecting it adversely.

Notice the southern impulse shears out ahead... and gobbles up the baroclinic instability/moisture and bottle rockets it toward the N-Atlantic, while the n-stream and the SPV fragment over southern and SE Canada struggle to catch... ultimately failing to rotate cyclonically down into the backside of the S-stream in a timely fashion.

Trouble for me is... I don't know if that "cant'" happen that way... 

Either way, the N-stream finally does rotate around like a day and half later and tries to ignite another low E between Bermuda and the Carolinas ... but the whole thing D6-8 is a mess of sheared discord out there because of this hyper drive in the atmosphere.

It's kind of a scientific curiosity in its own rite, really -

Just out of curiosity, how anomalously fast is this flow relative to normal? Seems like that's been a recurring feature the last few years. We talking a few standard deviations? More? 

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Can I say ain't happening James for good JUJU or do I need to be genuine and say ain't happening Bobalouie

What ain't happening?  The Biblical scenario of yesterday?  Did anyone buy into that?  If they did, they set themselves up for a major disappointment.

Or perhaps a modest 3-6" storm?  I still see this as a plausible scenario at this time frame.

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29 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

What ain't happening?  The Biblical scenario of yesterday?  Did anyone buy into that?  If they did, they set themselves up for a major disappointment.

Or perhaps a modest 3-6" storm?  I still see this as a plausible scenario at this time frame.

A SECS possibly, But I would not have gone another two levels at day 7.

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2 hours ago, Modfan said:

Meanwhile, has anyone been on the ponds fishing or riding? I am curious to the thickness of area ponds.I remember in the early 80's people driving cars on and across ponds and lakes in Southern ORH county

Saw the first ice fishermen on the pond near me today. n ORH county.  No trucks on the ice though. Maybe later this week

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Some of those members of the EPS and GEFS ensemble mean are really amped up, like around <960mb, this is coming back westward, the 18z GFS already shifted about 50 miles west from the 12z run to the 18z run, our southern stream disturbance is 60 hours away from being fully sampled in the mid levels, we have two arctic jet disturbances in the mean flow that are critical to our storm coming west.  First one is to dive southward and slow down our southern stream system and pulls it west by almost closing off the H5 low, then the second dives around the backside of the H5 trough and tries to hook the surface low to the benchmark.  Reminds me of the 2015 Jan blizzard in that the second arctic disturbance pulls the storm to the benchmark as a <960mb low

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Some of those members of the EPS and GEFS ensemble mean are really amped up, like around <960mb, this is coming back westward, the 18z GFS already shifted about 50 miles west from the 12z run to the 18z run, our southern stream disturbance is 60 hours away from being fully sampled in the mid levels, we have two arctic jet disturbances in the mean flow that are critical to our storm coming west.  First one is to dive southward and slow down our southern stream system and pulls it west by almost closing off the H5 low, then the second dives around the backside of the H5 trough and tries to hook the surface low to the benchmark.  Reminds me of the 2015 Jan blizzard in that the second arctic disturbance pulls the storm to the benchmark as a <960mb low

No Jan 2005?

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5 hours ago, Modfan said:

Meanwhile, has anyone been on the ponds fishing or riding? I am curious to the thickness of area ponds.I remember in the early 80's people driving cars on and across ponds and lakes in Southern ORH county

I have been wondering about this, too.

Most should be safe next week.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The people ruling out a major event at day 6 are every bit as silly as those who were excited about the potential at day 7 allegedly were.

That is the irony.  

We have already witnessed this winter you can't even rule out day 3 model progs, Why should this threat be any different?

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Man, just getting a look at the EURO...didn't end up translating to the surface much, but H5 was much less disjointed that run.

Significantly better imo.

Obviously its more likely to not produce much, it always is...but I'm not sure how anyone can dismiss the possibility of a major event for e NE.

JMO.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, just getting a look at the EURO...didn't end up translating to the surface much, but H5 was much less disjointed that run.

Significantly better imo.

Obviously its more likely to not produce much, it always is...but I'm not sure how anyone can dismiss the possibility of a major event for e NE.

JMO.

Pretty much a HECS @H5 that run.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was quick on the trigger, admittedly....but this is perilously close to a hook-and-latter....closer than some are implying.

It is closer actually, That's why i'm holding out until 0z Monday, Should have all the players on the field by then so we will see if it is still a viable threat.

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18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It is closer actually, That's why i'm holding out until 0z Monday, Should have all the players on the field by then so we will see if it is still a viable threat.

Yea, that is a fair plan.

Anyone east of the river should be glued to this....especially ORH points east.

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