Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

[codfishsnowman]

the 1979 storm brought a modest snowfall to sw ct , pretty crazy gradient across the ny metro area

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Of course the euro looks like it would cook up a Jan 96 type system at D10. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

No. PD one was 1979 and pd 2twas 2003No. 

Yea, 78 was earlier in the month....you right.

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Minus the historic mid atl blizzard.

Lol well it's basically the same pattern for us, smoking cirrus while Bermuda gets raked, every clipper farts out . The term suppression depression is what we called it then

[tamarack]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I also remember that it was an extremely coldFebruary in Dover Delaware. I think the blizzard came at the end of that arctic outbreak 

I think BOS had something like 10 consecutive days with minima 5° or lower.  In Ft. Kent we had 8 days in a row with temps never rising above -2° and unceasing wind.

So really, that was PD2 and 2003 was PD3. 

Always has been "PD1" here, I think.  Wasn't many years prior to 1979 when PD was "created" by combining Lincoln's and Washington's B-days.

[codfishsnowman]

I just feel as though we have gotten all these big events region wide in less than ideal set ups so we have been lucky, extraordinarily so. It was an awful way to learn just how horrific a snow pit this area is and perhaps there is some local unluckiness mixed in there by only being at roughly average snowfall in these years of "plenty"but I feel as though we are on thin ice with the big dogs region wide.

I think regression is upon us, we may wind up average but how we get there for areas used to ++tssn etc will be a bitter pill to swallow

Lots of small events....a 6 incher will be a big deal

[weathafella]

Didn’t the PD1 storm have a big NAO?  Not exactly similar antecedent.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol well it's basically the same pattern for us, smoking cirrus while Bermuda gets raked, every clipper farts out . The term suppression depression is what we called it then

I'm not ready to go there...its only been 4 days since the last significant snowfall for the majority of the region.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

I just feel as though we have gotten all these big events region wide in less than ideal set ups so we have been lucky, extraordinarily so. It was an awful way to learn just how horrific a snow pit this area is and perhaps there is some local unluckiness mixed in there by only being at roughly average snowfall in these years of "plenty"but I feel as though we are on thin ice with the big dogs region wide.

I think regression is upon us, we may wind up average but how we get there for areas used to ++tssn etc will be a bitter pill to swallow

Lots of small events....a 6 incher will be a big deal

Truth is 12  plus inch snowstorms are pretty rare, been a lot of spoiled days for us. 4 to 8 is typical.

[Whineminster]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I just feel as though we have gotten all these big events region wide in less than ideal set ups so we have been lucky, extraordinarily so. It was an awful way to learn just how horrific a snow pit this area is and perhaps there is some local unluckiness mixed in there by only being at roughly average snowfall in these years of "plenty"but I feel as though we are on thin ice with the big dogs region wide.

I think regression is upon us, we may wind up average but how we get there for areas used to ++tssn etc will be a bitter pill to swallow

Lots of small events....a 6 incher will be a big deal

The CT valley in MA is basically a continental climate in relation to the rest of New England. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I just feel as though we have gotten all these big events region wide in less than ideal set ups so we have been lucky, extraordinarily so. It was an awful way to learn just how horrific a snow pit this area is and perhaps there is some local unluckiness mixed in there by only being at roughly average snowfall in these years of "plenty"but I feel as though we are on thin ice with the big dogs region wide.

I think regression is upon us, we may wind up average but how we get there for areas used to ++tssn etc will be a bitter pill to swallow

Lots of small events....a 6 incher will be a big deal

Kevin will be in heaven.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Weeklies showed it weeks ago and it was tossed as an active period 

If it were June you'd be firing up the drought thread with the recent looks.  Even today's 12z EURO for the next 10 days is bone dry.  And up here that's misleading as it's like 0.2" cumulative from 0.02" at a time.

At least nothing out there right now will melt, that's for sure.

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not ready to go there...its only been 4 days since the last significant snowfall for the majority of the region.

Lol it can change quickly, just saying what modeling shows. 

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

The CT valley in MA is basically a continental climate in relation to the rest of New England. 

sounds better than it really is, just like the continental breakfast at the super 8

[codfishsnowman]

Ginx is correct, BDL only averages one 12 inch event every 4 years

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

If it were June you'd be firing up the drought thread with the recent looks.  Even today's 12z EURO for the next 10 days is bone dry.  And up here that's misleading as it's like 0.2" cumulative from 0.02" at a time.

Looks how the QPF just contours the coastline as if to proclaim "$uck you, and the sled you rode in on".

Long wave trough a bit too far east.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol it can change quickly, just saying what modeling shows. 

Yeah that's important to note.  Sure if that storm comes back the entire period looks a lot different.  But from the past few cycles of models we'll be tracking any area of flurries even for the mountains heading towards mid-January.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm all in on the 1/7 threat.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks how the QPF just contours the coastline as if to proclaim "$uck you, and the sled you rode in on".

Long wave trough a bit too far east.

Yeah I've always wondered if that QPF actually falls or if the model is just over-doing it over the ocean.  Every single run almost all winter long with a cold air mass in place, the ocean has inches of QPF for the 10-day totals.  Are the fish really getting feet of snow every week?  lol.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks how the QPF just contours the coastline as if to proclaim "$uck you, and the sled you rode in on".

Long wave trough a bit too far east.

Ocean Gulf enhanced , happens when -15 degree 850 air is bounced over 75 degree water 

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Truth is 12  plus inch snowstorms are pretty rare, been a lot of spoiled days for us. 4 to 8 is typical.

This is definitely the truth.

I don't really know the history of the NWS criteria well, but I know they change all the time. The 1998 ice storm drove the decision to make warning criteria 0.50" ice. Did the 1990s drive the decision to make 6" the warning criteria for snow? Because 6" sure sucks to have a break point when all your storms are 4 to 8 inchers.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If it were June you'd be firing up the drought thread with the recent looks.  Even today's 12z EURO for the next 10 days is bone dry.  And up here that's misleading as it's like 0.2" cumulative from 0.02" at a time.

At least nothing out there right now will melt, that's for sure.

 

Wonder if what we have just sublimates to grass?

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I've always wondered if that QPF actually falls or if the model is just over-doing it over the ocean.  Every single run almost all winter long with a cold air mass in place, the ocean has inches of QPF for the 10-day totals.  Are the fish really getting feet of snow every week?  lol.

It's real when you have these arctic airmasses being advected out over those warm waters. Notice for every 6hr frame it's miniscule QPF...it just adds up to quite a bit over a 10 day period. You can see the low cumulus cloud streets forming out over the water on the vis loops today.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm all in on the 1/7 threat.

Lol

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder if what we have just sublimates to grass?

Hang on, lemme check.... Yep.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder if what we have just sublimates to grass?

My ice cubes in the freezer, from the summer, look like pea sized hail right now.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It's real when you have these arctic airmasses being advected out over those warm waters. Notice for every 6hr frame it's miniscule QPF...it just adds up to quite a bit over a 10 day period. You can see the low cumulus cloud streets forming out over the water on the vis loops today.

Ray wants to build a manmade weenie island we can visit during Arctic Outbreaks.Bet it would crush the LES records

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's real when you have these arctic airmasses being advected out over those warm waters. Notice for every 6hr frame it's miniscule QPF...it just adds up to quite a bit over a 10 day period. You can see the low cumulus cloud streets forming out over the water on the vis loops today.

Look at what happened on the Cape this morning. That's what's going on out over the ocean too. It's not much QPF but it adds up.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ray wants to build a manmade weenie island we can visit during Arctic Outbreaks.Bet it would crush the LES records

We have one and it's called Nantucket. How well do they do with snow again?

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ray wants to build a manmade weenie island we can visit during Arctic Outbreaks.Bet it would crush the LES records

Ha I want to stick Mount Mansfield's 2 mile long 4000ft ridge in Redfield, NY and see what happens.  They already get a ton of snow, wonder what northern Greens barrier with Lake Ontario would do.