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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.


lilj4425
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2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Hey man, good to see you posting. What's your take on the situation?

I think some areas could get a slushy dusting or so....... but it's threading the needle. I went into it in detail in my video today. 

I'm just excited we have something already.

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14 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Any way to toggle text sounding on Pivotal?

After the sounding comes up, there is a dropdown at the top center of the page for Hr - so you can change the forecast hour there.  At top right, there's a dropdown for map where you can view the map and choose another location for the next sounding

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It's really the GFS vs every other model on temps. GFS is insistent on upper 30s to low 40s across NC while the CMC, NAM, and Euro all drop temps in the 32-35F range for most of the event. That's the biggest reason the GFS shows mostly a cold rain, the 850 level and soundings are cold enough for areas like Raleigh but the boundary layer is a bit warm.

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2 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Precip shield shifted NW 20-40 miles this run. Not bad.

yeah...the shift is pretty big compared to the 0z run....not there yet but it obviously trended in the right direction. 

5 minutes ago, msuwx said:

I think some areas could get a slushy dusting or so....... but it's threading the needle. I went into it in detail in my video today. 

I'm just excited we have something already.

that's the truth. A dusting or something would be nice but i'd be happy with just seeing flakes....although it surely would make my craving for a big snow jump by several orders of magnitude lol

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3 minutes ago, Stormsfury said:

The 12z GFS has an intensifying screaming jet at 66 thru 84 at 250mb.  Precip seems rather meager with such a jet enhancement...

Webber has been preaching the same thing on other board. Says its very rare almost unheard of to get a jetstreak like GFS is depicting in our neck of the woods like 140-160. Thinks this favors an overperformer potential to the NW(should get way more precip) as oppossed to the latter.

 

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11 minutes ago, Stormsfury said:

The 12z GFS has an intensifying screaming jet at 66 thru 84 at 250mb.  Precip seems rather meager with such a jet enhancement...

I noticed that too. Upper level div is strong, but cross sections show no deep omega coupling with meager llvl forcing. 

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Webber has been preaching the same thing on other board. Says its very rare almost unheard of to get a jetstreak like GFS is depicting in our neck of the woods like 140-160. Thinks this favors an overperformer potential to the NW(should get way more precip) as oppossed to the latter.

 

Saw that and I think that is pretty spot on.  Also just saw WPC experimental day 4 outlining 10% chances with greater than .25" liquid equivalent frozen/snow highlighted from northern SC thru Central/Eastern NC on their Winter Weather graphics.   

The CMC/GFS differences at 250mb are very subtle with the jet streak...

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1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

I think it probably snows most of the day on Friday but whatever moisture is left from Friday Night into Saturday has a good shot at sticking. 

That sounds reasonable from what I can see.  Unless this thing slows down to come Friday night, we're looking at mood flakes in clt. I'm fine with that this early. And if it lasted all day, even if it doesn't stick, that would be pretty sweet.  

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