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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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00Z runs still keep the general trend alive, totals a bit lower and less coverage on the GFS with lower totals for MBY, but the ICON actually gave MBY more this time around.... just seeing it snow decent this late in March is a win really...

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00Z Euro so painful in the Triangle......

euro.thumb.png.06ceb3d7696d27d5fa2db6a81dccebef.png

Edit: just watch the local news early edition and their futurecast 9  in house model shows snow NE of a line that runs SW of RDU and Greenville a bit and she didn't even mention snow said rain and didn't even allude to the dark blues over a lot of NC on the model run.

 

 

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

Pretty good shift on the NAM finally......brings light accumulations further into NC.

namconus_asnow_seus_27.thumb.png.7f288dde1febbd61c9f5269f9b2e95af.png

This will be a case where you want to be as far northeast as possible (it's usually NW). Durham or Wake Forest could get more than Greensboro. Model runs will be interesting today.  

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

This will be a case where you want to be as far northeast as possible (it's usually NW). Durham or Wake Forest could get more than Greensboro. Model runs will be interesting today.  

Man I’m surprised by NWS Blacksburg on this one. Very conservative thus far and only issuing winter storm watches up this way for the mountains only. Almost every short and long term model I have reviewed this morning shows 6” or more potentially for my area and even to the southwest. Still plenty of time I guess. 

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Man I’m surprised by NWS Blacksburg on this one. Very conservative thus far and only issuing winter storm watches up this way for the mountains only. Almost every short and long term model I have reviewed this morning shows 6” or more potentially for my area and even to the southwest. Still plenty of time I guess. 

There's definitely a lot of positives on a potential winter storm. But there are also negatives; chiefly the time of year. High elevations can score in late March, but folks "off the mountain" have to get the perfect setup. **I'm tracking this storm but I have no expectations.    

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Buddy,

keep in mind it’s still pretty far out and will get to the mountains first.  So, lack of a watch may have to do with the fact that warning conditions may still be too far out.  Just my thinking as it seems obvious a watch is coming. 

TW

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This is what you get when the solar/QBO is favorable,which leads to strong and persistent SSW's also.Pattern is trying to produce even this late into late March.

Other than the 3-4 week stretch in Feb,it was quite good this year,solar should be even better next winter but that QBO could flip which wouldn't be good.ENSO should be better though .

 

 

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Seems to be less run to run consistency in the NAO forecast recently; perhaps the pattern is finally breaking down.  In the mountains, still think we have a shot at seeing a few more flakes of snow the first week or so of April then Spring may finally set it; maybe...

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7 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

WFMY Tim Buckley: The lesson for all NC forecasters this winter should be, "High snowfall rates will overcome your warm air and warm ground"

Always.

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6 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Joe Bastardi:  GEFS  every run bolder on the colder and in line with ideas from Feb on winter not leaving till well into April.  Latest GEFS 5 day ending April 8 getting closer to extreme case on April 1982 https://t.co/gusgUrTtBQ

Yes, looking like the NAO doing a negative dive about the first of April; looks like the same pattern persisting until at least April 8.  Fantasy positive NAO after that; we will see.

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Matthew East @eastwx 1h1 hour ago

 
 

I am off this morning, so no video. However, what's next? Looks like a nice warm-up later this week, but I feel that will just be a brief island of warmth. I feel a colder pattern will return Easter weekend and could stay into the second week of April. #ncwx #scwx #cltwx #triadwx

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7 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

DZN5jxTU0AAvU0J.jpg

 

Don't underestimate Winter Overtime this Year.

6 weeks too late.. One day we will time things just right. One day 

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Just looking at averages (low elevations), during the next couple of weeks most will experience their last freeze until Fall. It seems the first week of April is a prim time. The GFS has a cold look ~ day 13, Canadian for the day 9/10, and the Euro ~ day 10.   

Hot weather is a couple of months away...

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