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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hes in a NY state of mind, or took it off another forum

Looks like something a NYC person would tweet or post... ha.

Tons of spread this weekend...those ensembles are like a firehose going unmanned just spraying possible snow all over the place with no real pattern.

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I'm not sure why we even look at the models.

We know the most likely scenario is 953mb retrograding through Maine into Quebec dropping feet of snow on New England while sub-zero cold moves in on 50-60kt winds.

The 953mb lows are a dime a dozen these days anyway.  This destroyed most of SNE in the previous panel.  This looks like the upper limit for this storm ;) .

 

MostLikely.jpg

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm not sure why we even look at the models.

We know the most likely scenario is 953mb retrograding through Maine into Quebec dropping feet of snow on New England while sub-zero cold moves in on 50-60kt winds.

The 953mb lows are a dime a dozen these days anyway.  This destroyed most of SNE in the previous panel.  This looks like the upper limit for this storm ;) .

 

MostLikely.jpg

 is that a nickel or a dime ? 

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The angst is palpable with some of you. Remember the time of year. It's early December...we should be fortunate to get to 32F given past Decembers...nevermind snow. :lol:  Say this weekend and next week do not work out...there looks to be a lot of opportunities (even if small) through mid month and beyond. It does not always come hard and fast.

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53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah the reasons are there. I would not be shocked if it came west.  As far as next week goes, it's a nice look, but one thing at a time. That s/w could  grind out or miss east too. The extended looks nice with maybe a little more closer of a storm track later in the 11-15 day. Could be a good thing. 

Yeah, I mean it's not too hard to sharpen the downstream side of the western ridge and dig a deeper shortwave to amplify the flow more. Those are pretty subtle changes at this range. But those subtle changes can break the other way too, like you say, and have this stay east.

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45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm not sure why we even look at the models.

We know the most likely scenario is 953mb retrograding through Maine into Quebec dropping feet of snow on New England while sub-zero cold moves in on 50-60kt winds.

The 953mb lows are a dime a dozen these days anyway.  This destroyed most of SNE in the previous panel.  This looks like the upper limit for this storm ;) .

 

MostLikely.jpg

Blizzard for SNE and floods in Maine?  Why not?  :lol:

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