Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12/15 onward for big threats....I've always been all in on that. I think its going to be a holiday period to remember. Thats one sick look as the TPV retrogrades west and then drops in SWs one right after another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: GEFS sig for Ray , (Scott, Scooter, Scoots) and my man Jer for the 13th is anything but rain They are usually east, anyway... But again, I expect this to trend east a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Thats one sick look as the TPV retrogrades west and then drops in SWs one right after another. Its Willy Wonker and the weenie factory if that were to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its Willy Wonker and the weenie factory if that were to materialize. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GEFS sig for Ray , (Scott, Scooter, Scoots) and my man Jer for the 13th is anything but rain Sounds as expected for an ensemble mean...coastal storms they are almost always (gotta be 90% or more) to the east of their operational run even just because of timing differences and the ones that have a weak or non-existent low. Fast flow would argue east though...just doesn't strike me this far out as something that amplifies enough to run over the Canal or something. It would really have to dig for oil. I still think one of the weekend deals comes back a bit more robust (for at least light snows for some) as we get closer. Everyone will be focused on Wednesday and then something will pop with 1-3/2-4" this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Sounds as expected for an ensemble mean...coastal storms they are almost always (gotta be 90% or more) to the east of their operational run even just because of timing differences and the ones that have a weak or non-existent low. Fast flow would argue east though...just doesn't strike me this far out as something that amplifies enough to run over the Canal or something. They are west at times, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They are west at times, though. Yeah its just not anywhere near as often as east...especially at these lead times when you have some significant timing differences smoothing the mean to a weaker/east type deal. It all sort of dilutes itself in the mean at this point. I think it would be very rare to see that OP run and then see the GEFS come out with a low over like ORH this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Sounds as expected for an ensemble mean...coastal storms they are almost always (gotta be 90% or more) to the east of their operational run even just because of timing differences and the ones that have a weak or non-existent low. ? This is the GFS/GEFS for the weekend storm Op is east of the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Sounds as expected for an ensemble mean...coastal storms they are almost always (gotta be 90% or more) to the east of their operational run even just because of timing differences and the ones that have a weak or non-existent low. Fast flow would argue east though...just doesn't strike me this far out as something that amplifies enough to run over the Canal or something. It would really have to dig for oil. I still think one of the weekend deals comes back a bit more robust (for at least light snows for some) as we get closer. Everyone will be focused on Wednesday and then something will pop with 1-3/2-4" this weekend. Yes and no. Depends upon the orientation/shape of the trough. Also, if you get a lbe of the PV involved, it can tug a storm back W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They are west at times, though. I agree ,there is no rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 It’s kind of annoying how either of those weekend systems don’t want to materialize. You’d hope at least one could produce a widespread couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yes and no. Depends upon the orientation/shape of the trough. Also, if you get a lbe of the PV involved, it can tug a storm back W. Good post honey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I agree ,there is no rule They are east more often than not, though....I just interpret as a big red flag if they are west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I agree ,there is no rule No rule but again at this lead time... like 7 days out...I still wager if you see a strong or well formed OP model low, the ENS will be east. It will dilute itself with timing and strength differences. The main thing is in the strength of the OP run. If its weak and east than yes its possible but on today's run, you have a 970-something low on the OP in the Gulf of Maine. The odds are over-whelmingly in favor of the Ensembles diluting that and being further east. No way at 6-7 days out are you going to see the ENS with a stronger and more west low than that, I mean that would be hard to fathom the ENS coming in at like 972mb over CON at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Andy Cohen is jealous of all the drama in here recently, the housewives should be taking notes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s kind of annoying how either of those weekend systems don’t want to materialize. You’d hope at least one could produce a widespread couple inches I would not write it off yet for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Yes and no. Depends upon the orientation/shape of the trough. Also, if you get a lbe of the PV involved, it can tug a storm back W.PV?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, WintersComing said: PV? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Polar Vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I would not write it off yet for us. Agreed... given the nature of these systems, the further east the better chance you have of getting scraped. Weve seen these types of systems make significant changes in short leads so we still have a ways to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, WintersComing said: PV? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Polar Vortex. If you loop the 500mb maps on Tropical Tidbits you can see it dropout of the Hudson Bay area almost due S and it tugs next weeks storm west. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017120512&fh=102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Polar Vortex. If you loop the 500mb maps on Tropical Tidbits you can see it dropout of the Hudson Bay area almost due S and it tugs next weeks storm west. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017120512&fh=102 Graphical representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 First wave on the 12z Euro is slightly west of 0z and looks to scrape SE areas and coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Yeah euro back west a bit. Might try and redevelop something along the boundary in later panels...the east side of that trough looks awfully steep to just see everything miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Polar VortTySent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah euro back west a bit. Might try and redevelop something along the boundary in later panels...the east side of that trough looks awfully steep to just see everything miss. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah euro back west a bit. Might try and redevelop something along the boundary in later panels...the east side of that trough looks awfully steep to just see everything miss. The whole trough is aligned further west this run and digging further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Its still early but might be starting to lean towards that first wave as our shot at getting snow up here, Pretty disjointed look @H5 after that first wave moves thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn't sell yet on either Saturday or Sunday...both are far enough out and it will only take small changes to see them produce. I'd prob punt on them if we keep trending the wrong direction through tomorrow. Way behind (knew there was a big run because I was 160 replies behind after ducking away for 2 hours for a session of the media workshop), but I did mention yesterday that sensitivity really pointed towards the biggest influence being Wednesday when it came to the ensemble runs. Should have the players over land at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 My snow goggles tell me this could be a good run for next week, esp for the west zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: My snow goggles tell me this could be a good run for next week, esp for the west zones. A little further to the east and a later development this run but it looked like it wanted to go Kim Jong Un on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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