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Early Winter Banter, Observations & General Discussion 2017

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It even seemed that way in the summer too, although I admit I did not look at the climo data for the summer.

Just looked at it and yeah both stations are pretty similar for the summer, despite there usually being between 0.5 and 1.3 degree differences in the average highs.

This summer's average high temps were 74.3F at MVL and 74.2F at MPV (only 0.1F difference).

Last summer's average high temps were 78.1F at MVL and 77.0F at MPV (the more usual 1F difference).

Not sure, its usually not a big difference but there is often around a degree of difference in the means.  Weird how the stations were similar in the summer, then MPV went back to a degree of difference in the fall but now in December its the exact opposite.

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tamarack

tamarack

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Got down near -10 this morning, from yesterday's max of 16, first sub-20 high.  Porch and trees popping in the frost, and the first time the truck starter cranking audibly more slowly.

Coming home from caroling about 8 last evening, we plainly saw the effect of our frost-pocket location.  As we drove along Route 2 through the fields near the Sandy River, the car thermometer (which runs 1-2F high) read 13/14.  By the time we reached the house 5 minutes later, it was down to 7.

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dendrite

dendrite

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44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just looked at it and yeah both stations are pretty similar for the summer, despite there usually being between 0.5 and 1.3 degree differences in the average highs.

This summer's average high temps were 74.3F at MVL and 74.2F at MPV (only 0.1F difference).

Last summer's average high temps were 78.1F at MVL and 77.0F at MPV (the more usual 1F difference).

Not sure, its usually not a big difference but there is often around a degree of difference in the means.  Weird how the stations were similar in the summer, then MPV went back to a degree of difference in the fall but now in December its the exact opposite.

Way too small of a sample size.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Way too small of a sample size.

Yeah I'm new to quality control, haha.

I'm looking at just the last couple of days and there's another possibility here... maybe MPV is a bit warm?

I can't really see anything that stands out in the climate maps either.

Two days ago MVL with 16F and it fits to me with the stations I know.

max_temp.thumb.png.9dd11c55975fb384a89bdb296c5f40cb.png

 

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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19 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

What was MPV? It seems MVL runs a bit chilly. I suppose it could be right.

Going back to the start of the discussion... and maybe a Mod should move this whole thing into the NNE thread?  Although not much banter right now anyway.

This is the 24-hour max/min graphic from BTV and I know we were wondering how MVL has a high of 11F while MPV was 13F but this graphic would lead me to believe it might have just been colder north.

Even this summer we had a sharp north/south gradient to the temperatures at times and yesterday, I tend to think the 11F at MVL is legit because there are single digits for highs immediately to the north.  That's a decent gradient and we did see that a lot in the summer too.  I also compare often to Nashville, VT COOP which is at a similar elevation and topography (wide open flat land) but on the west side of the mountain and they had a high of 10F yesterday. 

I don't know but the MVL reading doesn't stand out to me as looking that off given the mid-teens to the south and single digits to the north.

 

max_temp_121517.thumb.png.05a70209c2d7ff302f3e69d1cc630a51.png

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Going back to the start of the discussion... and maybe a Mod should move this whole thing into the NNE thread?  Although not much banter right now anyway.

This is the 24-hour max/min graphic from BTV and I know we were wondering how MVL has a high of 11F while MPV was 13F but this graphic would lead me to believe it might have just been colder north.

Even this summer we had a sharp north/south gradient to the temperatures at times and yesterday, I tend to think the 11F at MVL is legit because there are single digits for highs immediately to the north.  That's a decent gradient and we did see that a lot in the summer too.  I also compare often to Nashville, VT COOP which is at a similar elevation and topography (wide open flat land) but on the west side of the mountain and they had a high of 10F yesterday. 

I don't know but the MVL reading doesn't stand out to me as looking that off given the mid-teens to the south and single digits to the north.

 

max_temp_121517.thumb.png.05a70209c2d7ff302f3e69d1cc630a51.png

 

I think that image shows a gradient. I’m just generally speaking. I noticed it was cool on a lot of occasions and was trying to figure out why. Perhaps it is correct. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Here's MADIS for the past 3 years at MVL and MPV. There was definitely a cooler shift for MVL about a year and a half ago. Since that's when PF said the ASOS was moved I assume that is the most logical explanation. It looks to be a good 2F cooler.

madismvl.gif

madismpv.gif

It also appears that MPV has had a slow but statistically significant warmer drift in the same time.

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dendrite

dendrite

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Yeah...there does seem to be a gradual slight warming trend...especially at night. New stations are always popping up too and they get thrown into the QC mix which can affect the values. There was a weenie near me that ran like 5F too warm during the day and somehow MADIS rarely ever flagged him. I swear I always knew when they were factoring his obs into QC'ing me because I'd see spikes in my error values. They never tell you which stations are being used in comparison though.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Here's MADIS for the past 3 years at MVL and MPV. There was definitely a cooler shift for MVL about a year and a half ago. Since that's when PF said the ASOS was moved I assume that is the most logical explanation. It looks to be a good 2F cooler.

madismvl.gif

madismpv.gif

Ahhh there it is then.  

That makes sense with roughly the timing of the ASOS move.  Even if it's not environmental entirely, when they move those things I'm sure they recalibrate and all that good stuff...wonder if somehow it got rebooted and ended up on the cooler side (i.e. the new location is a little cooler but also adds in a slight change in the readings too)?

It definitely looks like something happened despite a slower drift and the ASOS did move in that time frame.  I do believe the new location would be slightly cooler as it's closer to the terrain depression and it's well away from the road (which I think is why they moved it in the first place...the road shoulder was like the fence line).  

Couple it with MPV drifting warmer and it really makes them similar.

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dendrite

dendrite

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I run cooler in the summer because my yard holds a ton of moisture even though it is open. Just ask Eek. You can see where my highs jump to being 2F cooler than expected and then fall back down during the cold season.

madisc7324.gif

Maybe being down in the stream bed the soils are a little more moist versus higher up and next to the road? These sensors are fairly precise, but I suppose you're right that they could've calibrated it.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Yeah that's true, I was wondering if that stream bed messed with it.  I think I've got a photo saved somewhere of that new location back when they moved it.  That stream bed it sits next to is filled with those really tall grasses and reeds all summer, like on the other side of the fence.

I don't know...it definitely seems cooler than it was like years ago when it ran more like BTV than MPV.  

My one thing is I could post 365 days worth of those climate maps from BTV and every one of them would pass the sniff test easily.  It seems to always fit with surrounding max/mins if you know the various climates.  I do get what Coastal is saying, I've thought that but then the next day the climate maps seem to show similar temps around it, so it's hard to really feel like it's off.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Impressive obs out of KBUF an hour or so ago as a squall line moved through.

KBUF 152321Z 21016G24KT 1/16SM R23/1200V3000FT +SN FZFG VV004 M06/M06 A2974 RMK AO2 P0000 T10561061

KBUF 152333Z 28010G17KT 1/8SM R23/0800V1600FT +TSSN FZFG VV002 M05/M06 A2974 RMK AO2 TSB32 OCNL LTGIC VC SW TS VC SW MOV E P0005 T10501056

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