November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Sorry to do this guys but I got called out. Nailed the low temp in the park with 24. CAA did peak during the day yesterday. That’s what prevented temps from reaching the MOS and NWS forecasts. The city just doesn’t radiate and thus relys on fresh cold air being funneled in. Once that had peaked (in the afternoon) temps stabilized.

it was still an impresive event.

My veggie garden went from still producing tomatoes, peppers and eggplant to completely fried. The eggplant especially which were massive are shriveled!

It wasn't just the city though most areas stopped dropping after 1 or 2 a.m.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It wasn't just the city though most areas stopped dropping after 1 or 2 a.m.

Basically the worst case for low temps. CAA ended but winds stayed just strong enough to prevent radiation. Had winds gone calm Toms River and West Hampton would likely have dropped into the single digits. 

[dmillz25]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It wasn't just the city though most areas stopped dropping after 1 or 2 a.m.

I dropped to about 23 but yeah def record breaking 

[Stormlover74]

Basically the worst case for low temps. CAA ended but winds stayed just strong enough to prevent radiation. Had winds gone calm Toms River and West Hampton would likely have dropped into the single digits. 

Might be a better chance to do that tonight

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[nycwinter]

28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Sorry to do this guys but I got called out. Nailed the low temp in the park with 24. CAA did peak during the day yesterday. That’s what prevented temps from reaching the MOS and NWS forecasts. The city just doesn’t radiate and thus relys on fresh cold air being funneled in. Once that had peaked (in the afternoon) temps stabilized.

it was still an impresive event.

My veggie garden went from still producing tomatoes, peppers and eggplant to completely fried. The eggplant especially which were massive are shriveled!

the forecast low i saw from many tv mets and radio mets in nyc was 24....so it was right on not as you predicted above

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We have been seeing in the 2010's how quickly these extreme blocking events can change up a pattern. This is a new blocking record for the Aleutians during the first week of November. A +400 meter anomaly is as impressive as it gets for a whole week in that area.

 

 

 

Looks like a -EPO is being predicted for December- that would match winters earlier in the decade.

[doncat]

16 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

the forecast low i saw from many tv mets and radio mets in nyc was 24....so it was right on not as you predicted above

I think temps wound up pretty much as forecast. I use the nam 12km, I find it does pretty well. You have to know the bias's for your area and adjust accordingly...for instance, all the models do bad for where I am on calmer nights, not picking up on the radiational cooling that takes place. Forget the GFS by the way, bad warm bias since the upgrade.

[Paragon]

55 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I'll sign up for a December like 1959...6-14" of snow fell around the city on 12/22...8" fell in Brooklyn...the coldest temperature of the winter followed and snow was on the ground Christmas morning...

and March!

[Paragon]

43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Might be a better chance to do that tonight

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk
 

High clouds moving in around 8 PM but FOK could still get to the teens.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

46 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

the forecast low i saw from many tv mets and radio mets in nyc was 24....so it was right on not as you predicted above

MOS and NWS were 22 that’s what I was referring to. You blantently called me out. I’m not one to argue or cause issues on here. It never goes well. Let’s just agree to dissagree then.

Still an incredible event with the dual record lows!!

 

[uncle W]

21 minutes ago, Paragon said:

and March!

between that storm and the March storm had a lot to be desired.....I was ten and remember it was supposed to snow on a Saturday in mid February...It was cloudy all day and I was looking for any trace of snow falling...it did start at night and there were some accumulations...the next morning while walking to Church I noticed ice on the cars...this was the first time I noticed freezing rain...the storm was only 1" of snow and ice but as a ten year old it was fine...

[uncle W]

NYC set two record lows without the help of a negative ao or nao...1967's ao was negative for a time before becoming positive during their November cold wave...

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

NYC set two record lows without the help of a negative ao or nao...1967's ao was negative for a time before becoming positive during their November cold wave...

With the exception of February 2016, most of our cold since 2013 has been a result of stronger Pacific blocking than Atlantic.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Sorry to do this guys but I got called out. Nailed the low temp in the park with 24. CAA did peak during the day yesterday. That’s what prevented temps from reaching the MOS and NWS forecasts. The city just doesn’t radiate and thus relys on fresh cold air being funneled in. Once that had peaked (in the afternoon) temps stabilized.

it was still an impresive event.

My veggie garden went from still producing tomatoes, peppers and eggplant to completely fried. The eggplant especially which were massive are shriveled!

Didn't the NWS miss the forecasted low by 1 or 2degrees?

 

Edit:  I saw your agree to disagree post.  I'm good with with that.  

[NJwx85]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

20s tonight

After today 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Maybe it’s just the early season and acclamation cold, but this is some of the coldest feeling 35 degree weather I’ve ever experienced lol...

[sferic]

In the past 24 hours the SST at Ambrose took a noticeable dip ( 1.6 degrees )

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 39

[danstorm]

1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Maybe it’s just the early season and acclamation cold, but this is some of the coldest feeling 35 degree weather I’ve ever experienced lol...

It feels wonderful... That exhilarating first rush of winter!

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

+PNA , -AO/NAO, decent storm/cold pattern setting in just before the holiday

[leo2000]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

EPS trending stronger with the already record blocking near the Aleutians through day 10. This results in the AO/NAO block becoming more east based than earlier forecasts.

 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

 

Is a east block -NAO better for my area in New Glasgow Nova Scotia, Canada and of course, New England, New York. 

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

EPS trending stronger with the already record blocking near the Aleutians through day 10. This results in the AO/NAO block becoming more east based than earlier forecasts.

 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

 

Good post as always. I saw a couple of twitter posts incorrectly saying the eps lost the -NAO blocking, it just simply went from a west based block to an east based block, obviously not as ideal, but it’s still there, if that’s correct...

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

+PNA , -AO/NAO, decent storm/cold pattern setting in just before the holiday

If the pattern it’s showing today is correct (-WPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO, 50/50 low), IF, then yes that’s a pretty strong east coast storm signal starting late next weekend

[donsutherland1]

With readings in the upper 30s despite brilliant sunshine, it finally felt like late fall. Some photos from this afternoon:

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the pattern it’s showing today is correct (-WPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO, 50/50 low), IF, then yes that’s a pretty strong east coast storm signal starting late next weekend

My concern is lack of Atlantic help, very zonal flow looks to continue 

 

which imo is the reason we’re seeing these flat cutter push across 

[North and West]

With the record MJO and Aleutian ridge, this is turning out to be a mega-amplified version of the November La Nina composite in the Pacific. Also notice how the strongest AO and NAO blocking tends to be more east based in the composite.

 



 



 

 

 

A friend of mine is asking what this means. That friend is me.


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[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, uncle W said:

I'll sign up for a December like 1959...6-14" of snow fell around the city on 12/22...8" fell in Brooklyn...the coldest temperature of the winter followed and snow was on the ground Christmas morning...

I would, too.

[uncle W]

as did a lot of the 1960's Decembers 1959 had some mild days the first half of the month...then it would get cold in the second half with a snowstorm for Christmas...1995 was like those years...1959 is the warmest of these Decembers by three degrees on average over 1961 and eight degrees warmer than 1960...the best Decembers got their warmest days at the beginning of the month...

1959...55 on the 3rd...56 on the 16th...snowstorm 12/21-22...coldest air of the season...

1960...62 on the 5th...64 on the 6th......snowstorm 12/11-12...record cold...

1961...51 on the 4th...58 on the 5th......snowstorm 12/23-24...cold enough...

1962...68 on the 1st...53 on the 6th......snowstorm 12/21-22...very cold mid month...

1963...55 on the 8th.............................snowstorm 23-24th...very cold mid month...

1966...66 on the 9th...62 on the 10th.....snowstorm 24-25th...cold enough...

1969...54 on the 10th...60 on the 11th...snowstorm Christmas night...cold enough...

1970...66 on the 2nd...64 on the 3rd.....snow 12/22 with sleet...cold Christmas week...

1995...55 on the 3rd...52 on the 4th......snowstorm 12/19-20th...cold mid month...

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The new Wantagh Mesonet radiates right with FRG. Not surprising. It’s located at a sandy sight within a very large park. 33 at both stations. West Hampton down to 24!

[Juliancolton]

This is easily the earliest I can remember having multi-day ice on my pond. Probably by at least a week or two. Hopefully it portends some decent ice on the Hudson for the first winter since '13-14... I'd love to see the ice yachts out in action again.