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November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

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One of the strongest combinations of -EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO that we have ever seen to start off November. The forecast 500+ meter anomalies centered near the Aleutians are close to a record for this time of year. 

 

eps_z500_anom_nh_102.thumb.png.3723f280812b75f0b07b0863f5280dfc.png

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

One of the strongest combinations of -EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO that we have ever seen to start off November. The forecast 500+ meter anomalies centered near the Aleutians are close to a record for this time of year. 

 

eps_z500_anom_nh_102.thumb.png.3723f280812b75f0b07b0863f5280dfc.png

 

 

 

 

another big ridge that stops just short of disrupting the PV

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the exception of months like July 2015 and January 2016, all the record high latitude blocking has been over the NE PAC since April 2013. It's like a switch was flipped after the record March 2013 -AO. We were even able to record a rare winter -EPO month during the 15-16 super El Nino.

There has been pretty strong blocking in the WPO domain as well in the last several years. I.E. the strong -WPO blocking back in December of last year

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

One of the strongest combinations of -EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO that we have ever seen to start off November. The forecast 500+ meter anomalies centered near the Aleutians are close to a record for this time of year. 

 

eps_z500_anom_nh_102.thumb.png.3723f280812b75f0b07b0863f5280dfc.png

 

 

 

 

Seems like low pressures every place we don't want them in the high latitudes...hopefully later November features a reshuffling of things up there.  If not, then I'm worried that December will resemble last year's, where we were waiting for that -WPO to deliver some goods which just never came....the sense of deja vu I'm feeling is sort of unsettling.

That said, the -QBO and the fact that the Niña seems weak and east-based gives me more hope than last year that things may turn around in our favor...November has thrown us curveballs before.  But if the AO region remains hostile, I feel like we may be in trouble, at least for a good chunk of December....

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one thing we don't want now is an early snowstorm...after 2011 and 2012 early season snowstorms the next one came three months later...

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33 minutes ago, Dakota said:

Did any ever actually come in 2011-12?

November 2012; definitely...then not 'till February 2013.

But 2011-12 nothing happened after October snow; except maybe over higher elevations, IIRC.

Double-checking, the Central Park saw 2.9" on 29 October 2011; and then just 4.5" the rest of the winter; seasonal total 7.4".

So yes, they did see more; but not too much more.

But it is a salient point about early snows leading to bad winters.  I remember winter 1972-73...there was a snowstorm over interior, elevated N. Jersey on 18 - 19 October 1972...parts of Sussex County saw 3.5"....and even near Trenton they had 2.5".  After the 2.5" on 19 October; Trenton saw just 0.7" the rest of the winter.

Also a snowstorm on 10 October 1979...the Oak Ridge Reservoir had 5.5"...which I think is near the Passaic / Morris County line and has an elevation of over 800 feet...but the rest of the winter was entirely nondescript.

1972 got 2.5" in Oak Ridge and 5.5" in 1979...1962 had 2" in October...the three winter average snowfall in NYC is 10.7"...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html?_page=2&state=NJ&foreign=false&stationID=286460&_target3=Next+>

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Given how unusual the teleconnections are, I'm not sure what to expect D-F. Does a +NAO/AO in Oct-Nov mean it'll change in time for winter or does persistence rule.

One thing we have been seeing a lot lately are very blocky, amplified patterns that can produce huge storms somewhere. Whether or not these blocks/storms end up favorable & affect us is a question mark. 

Personally I'm leaning towards a very mild/snowfree winter mainly due to persistence and a carry over of our fall pattern. 

I think something similar to 07/08 will transpire, which as we know was one of the top 5 weakest winters since 2000. 

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Now we can start to think about the warmest (SON) ever.

(SON) Record is   61.8degs. in 2015, no less;

(SON) Average is 57.5degs. or +4.3  Record would be +4.4 or better.

Therefore (30/91)(2.5)+(31/91)(7.3)+(30/91)(X)=4.4 or     X = 3.3degs.  So if Nov. averages at least +3.3degs. we have another record on the books.

Right now I do not even see a semblance of BN until 2nd week of Dec.  Canada and the rest of the US looks cold by then, but East Coast is a stubborn brat and clings to the heat.

Curses, foiled again.

 

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Now we can start to think about the warmest (SON) ever.

(SON) Record is   61.8degs. in 2015, no less;

(SON) Average is 57.5degs. or +4.3  Record would be +4.4 or better.

Therefore (30/91)(2.5)+(31/91)(7.3)+(30/91)(X)=4.4 or     X = 3.3degs.  So if Nov. averages at least +3.3degs. we have another record on the books.

Right now I do not even see a semblance of BN until 2nd week of Dec.  Canada and the rest of the US looks cold by then, but East Coast is a stubborn brat and clings to the heat.

Curses, foiled again.

 

The east probably has warmed faster than any part of the country.

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22 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Pardon my ignorance, what is the SON abbreviation? It seems obvious you are talking about a Nov warmth record but please elaborate

Sept, Oct, Nov

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ensembles are showing a strongly +AO for early November. But you can see that the Aleutian ridge is much stronger and further north than is usually the case for a +AO pattern in November.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_nhem_1.thumb.png.f6fb7db1dec465c19d96572ff4325143.png

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_nhem_6.thumb.png.760d7d900d075ad8f50f92f329678f53.png

 

Typical November +AO composite

 

500.png.e6f3fc9242457973b753c7fac2b7f123.png

 

 

The ensembles are warmer than normal as far as the eye can see for November. Just amazing how the last several falls (Sept, Oct, Nov) have been insanely above normal. Even December’s have gone warm. Had it not been for the very -WPO cooling things down last December, it would have been another epic torch 

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Just for perspective, that was 2 years ago. 

 

I agree the warm weather is alarming, but let’s keep perspective

 

Feb 2015 was a brutal month. And March 2017 was quite cold if I recall.

 

Most alarming is December. That seems to have dropped off the winter grid completely

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Euro has a deep trough in the east in long range.

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see our 1st snow event on the coast in late November 

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has a deep trough in the east in long range.

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see our 1st snow event on the coast in late November 

Cold in Canada and a -EPO does suggest the possibility that some cold may spill Eastward from time to time in November however other factors should keep us mostly AN to at times well AN. 

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17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has a deep trough in the east in long range.

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see our 1st snow event on the coast in late November 

It could be overdone and/or transient. I'd like to see the EPS and also the forecast teleconnections coming more in line to have much confidence in a prolonged period of cold in the East. Some of the long-range guidance is quite warm for the close of November.

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It could be overdone and/or transient. I'd like to see the EPS and also the forecast teleconnections coming more in line to have much confidence in a prolonged period of cold in the East. Some of the long-range guidance is quite warm for the close of November.

End of November is really long range, I would'nt count on any guidance more than 2 weeks off.

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49 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

End of November is really long range, I would'nt count on any guidance more than 2 weeks off.

I agree. I don't have a great deal of confidence beyond mid-November. I just noted that some of the very long-range guidance shows a warm close to November. Much can still change between now and then, though I think the month will wind up quite a bit warmer than normal (probably by 3° or more).

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November should be +3 to +4.

 

This looks to be the coldest December in the east in quite some time though. -2 to -4 with well above average snowfall. 

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First 8 days of Nov. off to a great start at just +7degs., as it averages 58degs.---with a drop off at the end.  We'll see how far beyond the 8th. that goes.

Really, over the next 45 days most areas in North America look cold, except around here.  Still hope for us.

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