USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Only 25 miles west and 2294 feet down, to go. More like 25 miles west and 1300 feet down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: More like 25 miles west and 1300 feet down Mount Harwich ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Mount Harwich ftw. We are only about 40 feet ASL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Euro seems about the same. 972mb extreme NE Pa then north through Central NY state. 1-2" total rain in New England. Real heavy rain is west of the center. Weatherbell's Euro gust map has 50-55mph gusts for SNE and 60-70mph gusts just offshore but this product was way overdone for the last storm. I'd knock 10-15mph off from that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Euro seems about the same. 972mb extreme NE Pa then north through Central NY state. 1-2" total rain in New England. Real heavy rain is west of the center. Weatherbell's Euro gust map has 50-55mph gusts for SNE and 60-70mph gusts just offshore but this product was way overdone for the last storm. I'd knock 10-15mph off from that?? Southeast Snoozer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Southeast Snoozer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Euro rips E CT 60-70 and higher farther East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 I better stack up the lawn chairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I'll be more interested if 93L gets its act together. May be a surprise or two in that dept. The western Caribbean at this time of year can do wacky things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 A 972 bombing in NE PA is no joke . The backside winds particularly will roar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Looks like it would be a nice day on the observation deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Wake me when it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Question... At 2pm the NHC increased the chances of 93L becoming a tropical storm to 80%. It was 40% yesterday. Does it really matter to our SEaster if 93L was a 30mph TD or a 70mph TS? Would the system be yanked all the way up here by Sunday or is the cyclogenesis that will take place over the Mid Atlantic really separate? I guess I'm wondering if the model's intensity of our system would be different if we had a stronger tropical system than currently progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Wind gust maps are the new Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wind gust maps are the new Kuchera. So true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 If it goes that far west, the SE downslope zones from DDH-RUT to E. of BTV are my bet for some of the highest gusts outside the coast. Also downslope of the Whites. That transfer of winds down the leeward slopes often is under-modeled...you're mixing down 850mb level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So true. That euro site has pretty cool 100m AGL mean wind speed maps for wind farm purposes. There's one 3hr stretch there where the LLJ noses in here from the east where that 100m mean wind gets up to 40mph. We don't do synoptic wind that well, but if we can mix 75% of that down it'd be pretty windy for our standards for a few hours. Maybe a 30G50mph deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: That euro site has pretty cool 100m AGL mean wind speed maps for wind farm purposes. There's one 3hr stretch there where the LLJ noses in here from the east where that 100m mean wind gets up to 40mph. We don't do synoptic wind that well, but if we can mix 75% of that down it'd be pretty windy for our standards for a few hours. Maybe a 30G50mph deal? As long as you aren't super wedged. Some signs you may be with high pressure trying to wedge albeit weak. But that should mix out a bit I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wind gust maps are the new Kuchera. Why do you think I put a before mine. 50mph is my tops. I'm thinking top gusts with this one will be in the low 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Why do you think I put a before mine. 50mph is my tops. I'm thinking top gusts with this one will be in the low 30s. I will take the over on 30s either side is 40 to 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 This has widespread 60+ all over it. This is real deal front and back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 How often do wind progs really pan out anywhere outside 15 miles from the ocean? That'll get heat from some but it's hard to forecast more than gusts to 50mph anywhere in the interior IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This has widespread 60+ all over it. This is real deal front and back Agree EPS members are into SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: How often do wind progs really pan out anywhere outside 15 miles from the ocean? That'll get heat from some but it's hard to forecast more than gusts to 50mph anywhere in the interior IMO. We never have had anything over 50 apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I will take the over on 30s either side is 40 to 50 Should at least be a little breezy at the top of the tower. Some interesting obs at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 48 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I will take the over on 30s either side is 40 to 50 Agree. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 32 minutes ago, powderfreak said: How often do wind progs really pan out anywhere outside 15 miles from the ocean? That'll get heat from some but it's hard to forecast more than gusts to 50mph anywhere in the interior IMO. Yea, 50 is the number to shoot for across the interior imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Not to take away from the amazing discussion going on here, I just want to update people on my novel, "Dawn Awakening: The Apocalypse is Now" is underway, shouldn't be completed until Thanksgiving Day 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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