SnoSki14 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 5 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 63degs. or about +8degs. All that talk of cold air coming was hot air. We should be +7.4degs. by the 26th. Trying to stay at least +6.8degs to finish as warmest ever Oct. The last few days will put a damper on the warmest October ever. I think we'll finish between +5.5 and 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 The GFS still has a decent rain event Tuesday but the heaviest is back into PA again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2017 Author Share Posted October 18, 2017 LGA is currently the 3rd warmest fall on record through the midway point. Many years on the top 10 list since 2005. EWR...#3...NYC...#4...JFK...#2...BDR...#1...ISP...#2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Isotherm said: 37 and 38 for the past two nights respectively here. Was hoping for first frost or 32F, but that looks like it will have to wait until next week. Average first 32F is October 18th here. The 34 actually surprised me a bit, considering it came around 7:00 am, and at 6:00 am it was 36. I don't have data like you do, but I'm roughly on track for my first frost. Freezes are usually late October, and hard freezes typically wait until November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2017 Author Share Posted October 18, 2017 EPS coming in much stronger with the blocking ridge east of New England for next week. new run old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 the op euro is stronger and further west with the block too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 I have noticed the lack of an aleutian low for the month of October. Don't we usually want that to help us indicate a cold/snowy winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Gfs now has a strong coastal at 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 +6.6 degree departure here thru yesterday...Still a ways to go but 2007 could be in play for warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Insanity continues/resumes as next 8 days average 65degs., a good +9 or +10degs. We should be +7.7degs. for the month by the 27th., at this rate. All this in MJO P5, a low correlating---but a BN trending phase for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2017 Author Share Posted October 19, 2017 The monthly temperature departures will get a bigger boost from the models trending much stronger with the ridge east of New England. The ridge is so strong that it forces the cold to go well SW of our area behind the cold front next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Upton has close to 80 for Saturday...given average highs are dropping we could be looking at a +20 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: The monthly temperature departures will get a bigger boost from the models trending much stronger with the ridge east of New England. The ridge is so strong that it forces the cold to go well SW of our area behind the cold front next week. Looks like Euro is alot cooler in the long range than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2017 Author Share Posted October 19, 2017 45 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks like Euro is alot cooler in the long range than the GFS. At the rate that we are going, the -11 daily departure on 9-2 in NYC may hold as the coldest departure for the fall(SON). The lowest this month so far in NYC is -6 on the 17th. The biggest cool daily departure in NYC for November 2015 and 2016 was only -8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 42.8F this morning. Nice string of chilly mornings; this should help boost the color from its banal appearance to a more lurid one shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 47 this morning Incredible stretch of weather coming up. Weekend looks to be 75 with blue skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 On 10/17/2017 at 5:54 PM, Eduardo said: Don, I was thinking about this yesterday when I saw the forecast for Lam. Do late-season storms of Nuri's caliber have a long-term, seasonal effect on the pattern and possibly our sensible weather? For example, did Nuri contribute in any substantial way to the wonderful EPO-driven tundra we experienced in the 2014-15 winter, or can we only say with confidence that it drove the November 2014 cold shot? Eduardo, I believe it is a short-term effect. The November cold shot can be attributed to it. The extreme February probably can't. The EPO can't be predicted at long timeframes with a great deal of accuracy, though there is some correlation between SSTAs and the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 31°, 35°, 39° last 3 nights. Hopefully we can get some sustained chill in the air soon. But for now go yanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Looks like Euro is alot cooler in the long range than the GFS. Even the GFS verbatim isn't a warm look, especially for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 4 hours ago, psv88 said: 47 this morning Incredible stretch of weather coming up. Weekend looks to be 75 with blue skies. This stretch into the weekend looks absolutely amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 12Z GFS speaks up about the cool down for the final 5 days of Oct.: 65, 69, 66, 70, 62 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Cool focused over the Rockies/Mid West but some troughiness at times in the east as well. This may spell more wet than cool for the EC oct 22 - 30 as others have been tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 18 hours ago, doncat said: +6.6 degree departure here thru yesterday...Still a ways to go but 2007 could be in play for warmest. +8.4 here. I think this is warmer than 07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 An astounding 14 degree swing this morning from Hastings on Hudson to Queens. Normal swing is 7. Large swing is 10. 14 degrees averages more than 1 degree per mile (but in reality there is a line around Van Cortland Park). 50 vs 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Next 8 days still managing to average a ridulous 64degs. or +9degs. We should be +7.7degs. by the 28th and have a 20 degree surplus or so to waste during the last four days of the month-----last 4 days could average -5degs. and this still would become the warmest Oct. ever. After donning my sunglasses and looking at the next 45 days, there will be no 'Next 8 Days' with a - in front of it till Dec. sometime. Best bet now is 11/3---10 maybe, since all other 5 day periods look AN. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Wait, so it's already the warmest Oct ever in NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 28 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Wait, so it's already the warmest Oct ever in NYC? Not yet. It's currently the 4th warmest October through the 19th with a mean temperature of 65.8°. If the mean temperature for the October 20-31 period is 60.2°, October 2017 would surpass October 1947's and 2007's monthly record high mean temperature of 63.6°, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Not yet. It's currently the 4th warmest October through the 19th with a mean temperature of 65.8°. If the mean temperature for the October 20-31 period is 60.2°, October 2017 would surpass October 1947's and 2007's monthly record high mean temperature of 63.6°, Based on guidance we should surpass those records, don't see much of a cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Not yet. It's currently the 4th warmest October through the 19th with a mean temperature of 65.8°. If the mean temperature for the October 20-31 period is 60.2°, October 2017 would surpass October 1947's and 2007's monthly record high mean temperature of 63.6°, Is that likely to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Is that likely to happen? There's a lot of guidance suggesting it could happen. Taking into consideration uncertainty and modeling error, even as the outcome is not yet assured, it's plausible. Taking the ECMWF through the 30th and then assuming the 31st finished with a normal daily mean temperature, the monthly mean would wind up near 64°. So, we'll see what happens. If this month winds up the warmest October on record, the outcome will represent another case where persistent warmth rather than extreme warmth during a short period of time was the driving factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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