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Jtm12180

Hurricane Maria

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9 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

HMON pressures are not reliable.  HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening.

857mb lol what a joke. anyway does the ERC seem to be beginning soon?

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
9 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:
HMON pressures are not reliable.  HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening.
 

Yes, though ironically HMON is the acronym for Hurricanes in a Multi- scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, it is not ocean-coupled in the Atlantic Basin unlike the Pacific. Its pressure intensities for mature systems get overdone in the Atlantic and should not be trusted for Maria.

any reason why it wasn't coupled to the Atlantic?  We have so many models- is there a version of that model that is coupled to the Atlantic?

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are we convinced it's going to landfall in PR?  looking at the radar/satellite it looks like there's still a chance it could skirt to the east (barely), though i'd be concerned about another west wobble before that could happen.

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Just now, 87storms said:

are we convinced it's going to landfall in PR?  looking at the radar/satellite it looks like there's still a chance it could skirt to the east (barely), though i'd be concerned about another west wobble before that could happen.

Direct hit on PR.

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1 minute ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said:

857mb lol what a joke. anyway does the ERC seem to be beginning soon?

It's already underway. It will take many hours to complete, if at all, taking into consideration the outer eyewall is still very large and the inner one is just beginning to show signs of being "choked"

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Direct hit on PR.

I could see it clipping the northeast corner if it were to wobble NNW a bit longer which it seems to be doing now.  But it's probably going to resume more WNW motion at some point tonight 

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1 minute ago, wxmx said:

It's already underway. It will take many hours to complete, if at all, taking into consideration the outer eyewall is still very large and the inner one is just beginning to show signs of being "choked"

thanks. if and how much do you think maria will weaken before landfall in PR. i know its going to be bad regardless, just wondering.

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1 minute ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said:

thanks. if and how much do you think maria will weaken before landfall in PR. i know its going to be bad regardless, just wondering.

15-20 mph if it completes or nears completion.  The eye having become bigger today probsbly prevents a 30 mph plus drop from occurring. 

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Not 100% sure this will happen or really how it even works in the first place. But I would like to say that if this outer band keeps contracting(it is, per TJUA) but fails to generate significant subsidence and still remains connected to the IEW through little spiral bands, it could just contract in on the IEW and have the IEW absorb the band. I have never seen this happen outside of Irma, but she did this several times. Generating significant subsidence(and thus eliminating the feeder bands) is the key to burning off the inner eye. If we can't do this, the IEW probably won't weaken.

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I'm getting about 40 nm for the OEW and 8 nm for the IEW. I always measure perpendicular to the beam so that my reference points are at the same height.

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1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

I'm getting about 40 nm for the OEW and 8 nm for the IEW. I always measure perpendicular to the beam so that my reference points are at the same height.

Sorry - i was measuring radius, not diameter. Should have been clear!

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2 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

I'm getting about 40 nm for the OEW and 8 nm for the IEW. I always measure perpendicular to the beam so that my reference points are at the same height.

Radius or diameter?...maybe you are both measuring the same thing.

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4 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

I'm getting about 40 nm for the OEW and 8 nm for the IEW. I always measure perpendicular to the beam so that my reference points are at the same height.

Yeah I had 8 nm so I was a bit confused. Thanks for clearing that up. 

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1 minute ago, Random Chaos said:

Sorry - i was measuring radius, not diameter. Should have been clear!

Ha...yes, that makes sense now. And yes, I agree the OEW has contracted some.

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Would appreciate someone looking at this display of wind speeds (set at surface but adjustable up - click "earth" for menu) in Maria:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-65.50,17.50,3000/loc=-63.817,17.579

I can't get a result that equates with Cat 5 speeds anywhere. Is this site getting faulty data or is there another explanation?

Thx.

 

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I know PR is in the cross hairs but it seems that Turks and Caicos possibly avoid a direct hit?  Although it skirts Hispaniola could be some pretty bad flooding/mudslide issues there.  That island won't even be a news bi-line w/ all the focus on Puerto Rico.

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1 minute ago, NoOneAtAll (NOAA) said:

Would appreciate someone looking at this display of wind speeds (set at surface but adjustable up - click "earth" for menu) in Maria:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-65.50,17.50,3000/loc=-63.817,17.579

I can't get a result that equates with Cat 5 speeds anywhere. Is this site getting faulty data or is there another explanation?

Thx.

 

Low resolution

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Know I'm getting ahead on this, but with Jose seeming to hold together... does that all but ensure Maria hooks OTS, or is there still a "realistic" chance the ridge manages to build in and push Maria into the EC?

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Here's the part where I politely ask people to verify their aftermath photo/video sources and not just trust anything off social media, and then my post gets deleted. :)

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2 minutes ago, SeanBarg said:

That twitter handle was posting every fake damage shot possible earlier.. I would take that video footage with a grain of salt as I don't know that the choppers had time to reach the island before nightfall given the conditions. 

Also actually thought the damage would look much worse than what is being shown here too.

 

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