NoOneAtAll (NOAA)

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Everything posted by NoOneAtAll (NOAA)

  1. More trees in my location. We're hoping they don't come down on the house or garage. The leading edge of the storm just arrived and the lights are already flickering. We are surrounded by fairly old growth forest on 3 sides so this will be dicey. The white caps on the Bras d'Or are getting quite impressive now and the freight train sound is beginning to get constant - disconcerting when you consider the center of the storm is over 300 miles away. Not here in Cape Breton.
  2. Can you tell if the eye is coming over my location which is Aberdeen in Cape Breton? It is on the Bras d'Or Lakes just past Whycocomagh on the 105. People here are taking Dorian very seriously. We had appointments all day so I an just now got back from the gas station where I went to fill up the car and a big container to run our generator. I got the last regular gas they had! From what I read, it seems that the SE quarter of the storm is likely to produce the highest winds and I think that applies to my location. Juan was unnerving here but we did not get the damage, especially downed trees that Halifax got. I suspect this time around, we see much more damage.
  3. It seems all the models are in agreement. Dorian will be on my doorstep Saturday and, IIRC, will still be a hurricane. My location is lakeside on the Bras d'Or Lakes near Baddeck, Cape Breton Island.
  4. Env. Canada warning: "Hurricane-force winds are possible for portions of the Scotian slope waters south of Nova Scotia on Thursday. Significant wave heights could reach near 10 metres over offshore waters near the track of the storm as it tracks through the Canadian marine district." Why is it different for the cruise ship versus the sort of height predicted by the government mets? What does "fetch is a major factor in sea state generation" mean, please?
  5. The marine warning for wave height under the hurricane as it passes by my location in NS says 30 feet plus. The storm will have weakened by then, however, to a low cat 1 or even a TS.
  6. Yep, that's what I figure. I'm always torn between wanting to experience it first hand and wanting it to be far away enough not to do any damage. I hated seeing all those beautiful old trees down in Halifax after Juan so a miss is good.
  7. Thanks for the link (it disappeared from the page after I used it!?!). You're right, it's looking like something to be respected. Don't worry, I plan on watching this thread closely. It will be much superior to any info provided by Environment Canada. ATM their forecast is "chance of showers" for Thurs. but they do have a "Tropical Cyclone Information Statements" notice elsewhere on the site: For Tropical Storm Chris. The next information statement will be issued by 9:00 p.m. ADT. Tropical Storm Chris is likely to become a hurricane off the Carolina coast this evening. It will then begin to accelerate northeastward over the next several days and may track near the Avalon Peninsula as a post-tropical storm later Thursday night or early Friday morning. 1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 p.m. ADT. Location: Near 33.3 North 72.8 West. About 335 km southeast of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds: 110 kilometres per hour. Present movement: Northeast at 15 km/h. Minimum central pressure: 992 millibars. 2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary. At this time the most likely land areas to receive direct impacts will be southeastern Newfoundland where Chris could make landfall as a post-tropical storm later Thursday night or early Friday morning. Based on the current track, these areas could be impacted with heavy rain, strong winds, and heavy waves with storm surge along parts of the coast. The Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia could receive some ocean swells and may possibly be brushed from some outer rainbands from Chris as it passes by to the south of that province. Details will become more clear once the system moves into Canadian waters and its forecast of track and intensity can be made with more confidence. a. Wind. The most likely area for strongest winds from Chris will be over the Avalon Peninsula. Based on current track and intensity the likely range of maximum winds for these areas will be in the 80 km/h to 100 km/h range. More details will become available once the system's track and intensity become more certain. b. Rainfall. The greatest potential for heavy rainfall associated with Chris will be over southeastern half of Newfoundland and possibly over easternmost areas of Nova Scotia. If the current forecast track holds, amounts in excess of 50 millimetres are possible with even higher amounts possible for parts of Newfoundland. Rainfall warnings may be required for some areas. c. Surge and waves. High waves, pounding surf and storm surge will be a consideration for the southern coastlines of the Avalon Peninsula. Swells along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia could reach 2 to 4 metres. For southern Newfoundland, of 4 to 6 metres are possible with potentially up to 8 metres possible for parts of the Avalon Peninsula based on the current forecast track. 3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary. Storm and gale-force winds will develop over portions of the offshore waters of the Maritimes on Thursday and over southern Newfoundland waters Thursday night into Friday. Hurricane-force winds are possible for portions of the Scotian slope waters south of Nova Scotia on Thursday. Significant wave heights could reach near 10 metres over offshore waters near the track of the storm as it tracks through the Canadian marine district. Forecaster(s):Borgel Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.
  8. Just checking in to let everyone know my location may be in the path of the storm - Cape Breton, NS. If anything interesting happens, I promise to upload some photos and maybe a video and certainly a running commentary if warranted. My specific location is on the Bras d'Or Lakes near the middle of the island. The Bras d'Or is a very large "inland sea" with two openings to the Atlantic and has salty to brackish water. Storms definitely can whip the lake into a white cap frenzy and wind always barrels down the road in front of our house even when it is not all that windy over all (wind tunnel effect). We are tucked into the base of a small (900 feet) mountain and sit a good 50 feet above sea level. We are making a few preparations: topping off gas to run the generator, filling canning jars with water, securing our green house as much as possible, laying any plants staked down on the ground, removing anything outside that could fly to the garage and, if by chance we get a direct hit at hurricane force, we'll be prepared to remove some inside doors to place and secure over the inside of the front windows - that's the exposed side of the house. I took photos of the gorgeous rose bushes in the front yard today because the wind will do a number on them and I'll have a before and after. They are truly amazing this year. The biggest thing we have to be concerned about are the very large trees around the house. Having one of them come down on the house would be bad news. As I recall, it is twice as likely that a hurricane/tropical storm makes landfall in Newfoundland as in Cape Breton or Nova Scotia. Given that and the fact that the storm track is predicted to be just South of us, the likelihood of having a full fledged hurricane experience here is not high. However, you never know. Juan was bad enough and White Juan was worse (5 days without power in cold winter weather when we had no generator or wood stove) but those, to date, were the worst I've seen here. Unless we lose internet with the towers taken out, I'll be letting you know what's happening here Thurs. It will be nice to be able to contribute something in return for all the great information all of you post.
  9. Would appreciate someone looking at this display of wind speeds (set at surface but adjustable up - click "earth" for menu) in Maria:,17.50,3000/loc=-63.817,17.579 I can't get a result that equates with Cat 5 speeds anywhere. Is this site getting faulty data or is there another explanation? Thx.